Khaleej Times
Rustam Shah Mohmand
Peace has remained elusive for most Afghans ever since the seeds of conflict were sown way back in 1973, the year the monarchy was abolished. The country has been through many upheavals in the past four decades but just when there was some hope of normalcy returning with most coalition forces preparing to leave, the situation looks even more gloomy and bleak. In the last one year alone, more than 150,000 Afghans have left the country as expectations for a better future subsided and uncertainty took hold. Afghans today constitute up to 20 per cent of the ‘Syrian’ refugee flow into Europe.
Despite the massive infusion of funds over the past 14 years, the country’s socio-economic statistics are frightening. Unemployment, which currently hovers around 50 per cent, is a grim reminder of the fact that the country is easily one of the poorest on the planet; 90 per cent of Afghanistan’s GDP comes from external inflows or spending by the coalition forces. Annual expenditure on the army and police amounts to about $5 billion whereas the country generates less than $2 billion in tax revenue every year. Opium is cultivated on 125,000 hectares of land with production exceeding more than 6000 tons. The revenue from the sale of opium or heroin is about one-third of Afghanistan’s measurable GDP; cannabis is being cultivated on another 15,000 hectares.
The resistance either controls, administers or has influence in decision-making in more than 50 per cent of the country’s territory.
At stake is not only the unity and integrity of an important country but also the stability and economic prosperity of a troubled region.
Afghanistan sits on minerals worth more than $1 trillion. It has, besides oil and gas, huge deposits of copper, lithium, precious stones, manganese etc. The country is a bridge between South Asia and resource rich Central Asia.
Though pessimism abounds today, there are three reasons for hope and optimism.
First is the resilience of the Afghan National Army, which has not buckled under pressure in areas from where the foreign forces have left.
Second, there is this feeling of war-weariness in the population. More than 35 years of conflict have devastated the country and its people; hundreds of thousands have been killed or disabled for life; infrastructure has been damaged, houses and villages destroyed; education, farming and healthcare systems are in disarray. There is a deep yearning for peace amongst ordinary Afghans.
Third, there is a split in the ranks of the once cohesive and integrated Taleban hierarchy. The Taleban, after the death of their leader Mullah Omar, are not speaking with one voice. Besides their authority has been challenged by the advent of organisations like Daesh etc.
The appetite for peace is huge among an overwhelming majority of the people. But there are daunting challenges in the way of a transition to stability. There is a strong pro-status quo lobby in the country – people who have gained resources, power and influence courtesy the windfall delivered by the generosity of the international community.
But a bigger obstacle is the Taleban’s refusal to accept the idea that the country now has a viable political system that is rooted in participatory democracy – based on the will of the people and reflected in the functioning of parliament. The Taleban insist that since the country was under foreign occupation (in their view) when these institutions were being created, they have no credibility. This divergence of perception can be addressed by making a few minor changes in the constitution to make it more compatible.
The other major roadblock to mainstreaming the Taleban is the continuing presence of foreign forces. Nevertheless, an agreement in principle on the total withdrawal of all foreign forces and the vacation of all foreign military bases will have to be indispensable ingredients of any peace formula that is to have a chance of success. Once this principle has been accepted and a stipulated timeframe laid down for the departure of all external forces, an appropriate ambience will be created to deal with that most complex of all issues: the governance system.
Pakistan has a vital stake in peace in Afghanistan, perhaps more than any other country. But Islamabad has more than one power centre. There is also a lack of vision and perhaps a lack of capacity. Forcing the Taleban to sit for negotiations is the easy part. But with no consensus on the issues confronting the interlocutors, making headway is difficult.
Regional countries have a role to play – other than pledging not to intervene directly or covertly and not to support one group or another. Regional countries should invest in the Afghans and Afghanistan.
It is time that Pakistan and India take each other into confidence on their roles in Afghanistan. Their roles need not be mutually exclusive. India is the fifth largest donor to Afghan reconstruction. Any objection by Islamabad to India’s role in Afghanistan causes the most severe resentment in Kabul. Pakistan has the right to demand that Afghan soil not be used by any one against its interests. But beyond, that Islamabad must recognise the right of Afghanistan to foster closer ties with India, a major regional country that has had relations with Afghanistan spread over two millennia.
