Wajid Murad
Different rounds of Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) of Afghanistan, Pakistan, the United States and China on the Afghan Peace and Reconciliation have taken place to move forward on the stalled Afghan peace process. The said process has emerged as a new ray of hope for Afghan people and the world community. The frequent twist of events and compelling information caused a snail paced progress of the process. Lot of hopes and expectations at regional and international level are attached to the positive outcomes of the process. The ultimate aim of these initiatives is to achieve a broad based, long lasting peace in Afghanistan. Besides, ensuring practical steps to halt the resonating extremism and terrorism affecting global peace. The participants; facilitating countries of the QCG are committed to offer their sincere and full support. However, the Afghanistan’s security situation seems to be deteriorating far more than predicted by the security experts. The failing security apparatus including Afghan Defence forces and intelligence setups, confirm their insufficient training and equipment. Besides, the issue of bad governance, corruption, mismanagement of resources and foreign aids are still considered the prime concerns for the Afghan government. Suicide attacks, explosions and other mixed attacks, launched by Taliban, have caused demoralizing effects in Afghan security apparatus. The deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan seems to have spelled negativity on the Afghan government’s resolve to adopt right course of action against the spoilers of the peace. Even Afghan President Ashraf Ghani during his early days of the presidency got compelled to join the anti-Pakistan orchestra, wickedly woven by the Indian influenced Afghan political personalities and Indian groomed Afghan officials. These forces never spare any bid to malign Pakistan and blatantly link every subversive activity taking place in Afghanistan to Pakistan; without the formality of investigation and confirmation. The government of Pakistan has frequently pointed out to Afghan government regarding the negativity prevailing within Afghan government and media against Pakistan. The group includes some influential political and former Afghan high ranking officials, led by former Afghan President Hamid Karzai. He is always involved in waging war of words against Pakistan. It is widely agreed that peace talks in Afghanistan could not yield concrete results until some concrete steps are not taken, in terms of prolong cease fire; duly respected by the Taliban and the Afghan government.
Furthering the Afghan peace process by Pakistan due to its obvious peace dividends, her role should not be sketched beyond the scope of a facilitator; this core point has been repeatedly conveyed by the government of Pakistan to all stake holders committed in peace process. It is yet to be witnessed that how the negative and positive forces navigate through the delicate Afghan security situation and bring about the desired changes. Experts who have experienced the terrain, culture and people of Afghanistan; are familiar with the fact that Afghans are peace loving nation but when it comes to their survival and honour, they could cross any limit.
Afghan peace process apparently seems quite localized matter of the region but experts are of the opinion that the unfolding implications of its success or failure would not be limited to regional limits but it could reach at international level. To understand the current scenario and its further implication in the region in general and Pakistan in particular, one needs to keep in mind, the overall regional and extra regional situation for understanding its regional and extra regional implications. In this context, the relation between Afghanistan and Central Asia is important for several reasons. First, the region would be affected by developments in Afghanistan such as extremism, terrorism, drugs smuggling sectarian and inter-ethnic conflicts. There are optimistic views regarding the immediate future after the complete withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan but still there is lot of apprehensions regarding the capacity and capability of afghan government and its security forces, which so far has poorly performed against the ongoing Taliban successes. Second, the five Central Asian states are progressing but weak states are destabilized by several domestic economic and political challenges. Relations between them are characterized by mistrust and even enmity. Their ability to handle complex regional security challenges is often questioned. There may well be both inter and intra State armed conflict, even without any spillover from Afghanistan. Third, Russia’s political leadership sees Central Asia as a part of Russia’s sphere of influence and a factor in Eurasian integration. Experts, while forecasting the future of Afghanistan, had earlier opined that foreign troop’s bulk withdrawal from Afghanistan could deteriorate Afghanistan’s security, besides, but it could also have a trickle down effect on its immediate and regional neighbours. Complete withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan is also not considered as a best case scenario for Central Asian countries, as they would be unable to handle the complex security challenges. Apart from the seemingly all-pervasive drugs trade, surprisingly few of them also come from Afghanistan. The challenges the region faces are more rooted in Central Asia’s own recent history and current politics. Judging from the current situation in and around Afghanistan, the Central Asian countries are most likely to bolster their efforts to establish political dialogue with all negotiable forces inside Afghanistan, as well as with neighboring countries and leading powers that support a unified Afghan State. Pakistan’s positive role in promoting Afghan Peace process is also recognized by the international countries. Situation in Afghanistan is being keenly observed by the regional countries, for identifying the area of cooperation and collaboration. These countries are likely to assist Afghanistan in addressing social and economic concerns and supporting projects to develop a growing and sustainable Afghan economy. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, in all probability, would focus on bilateral relations, while Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are more likely to rely on multilateral institutions that are already involved in the restoration of Afghanistan. There are some regional concerns which are based on the apprehensions that the negative extremist Influences from Afghanistan may actually be more catalysts than driving forces for conflicts in Central Asia. The West and Russia have apparently little appetite for addressing security issues in Afghanistan, bolstering the Central Asian states own capacities is viewed as a better way to increase regional resilience and to limit the negative influences from Afghanistan. In other words, Central Asia would always be volatile and require external support to handle its regional security challenges. Russia and China are the only major powers set to remain involved, but both have their own format of interests in which Central Asia is only a part of the equation.
