Mehboob Akhtar
The emergence of an increasingly powerful China could be among the most momentous global developments in the 21st Century. The Chinese booming economy, heightened trade competition, increased military power, and growing assertiveness all affect the United States and the existing economic, political and military world order. Perceptions of the relative US decline contrast with the remarkable ascent of East Asia. Many questions surround the economic, political, and social climate in East and South Asia. The rise of China as a world power has broad and dramatic implications for US policy and corporate strategies. Many uncertainties loom regarding China’s continued economic growth and integration into the global community. Some experts view that an over look of these countries, while setting aside the economic interests, competition or rivalry, there is a common denominator of concern for these powerful countries, which is the improvement of overall security, political, economic and social situation in Afghanistan for furthering their respective interests in the region.
Afghanistan security situation is said to be worsening far more than predicted by the western security experts after the bulk withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan. The failing security machinery including Afghan defence forces and intelligence setups are pointing towards their unsatisfactory command and control, training and inadequate aid expenditure. Besides, the issue of bad governance, corruption and mismanagement of resources and foreign aid are the burning concerns for the Afghan government. However, the Will and resolve of the Afghan public is praiseworthy. Recent string of suicide explosions and other mixed attacks, launched by Taliban have not only caused frightening effects in Afghanistan but ramifications of such incidents have the potential to affect the peace of whole region with its trickling down effects on regional and international arena.
The already progressing peace talks stood at halt by the roguish outflow of the news regarding death of Mullah Omer and succeeding bewilderment of alternate leadership for the group. Optimists thought that the undesired and obsolete news could not derail the progression of the ongoing peace talks between the Afghan Government and Taliban, but unfortunately it took the toll and peace talks got deferred. The left over room was crowded by the row of suicide bombings in Afghanistan which even constrained Ashraf Ghani to join the anti-Pakistan orchestra, very inventively played by the Indian prejudiced personalities and their groomed officials in Afghanistan. These forces never spare any proposition to smear Pakistan and manifestly link every subversive activity taking place in Afghanistan to Pakistan. Unfortunately, some afghan officials and politicians are always prepared to participate to push the anti Pakistan pushcart; without the formality of any sort of investigation or necessary findings and realizing its negative impacts on Afghanistan. Experts widely agree that Afghan government always overreact on its own security failures, either it is an intentional effort to blur the facts and hide their weaknesses behind the created curtain or some Afghan officials are obliged to succumb before the Indianan nefarious designs against Pakistan.
It is widely agreed that Afghan peace talks could not be resumed until some concrete steps in terms of prolong cease fire; duly respected by the Taliban and the Afghan government takes place. Secondly, it would not be possible until some influential and powerful country accept the role of mediation; which most likely by China could come in practice for resumption of the peace talks. Presently, there are some hopes of resumption of Afghan Peace talks being facilitated by Pakistan as the Afghan Taliban are said to be considering taking part in a meeting nearing to take place, expectedly during next week in Islamabad for finalizing the date and venue for resuming the peace process that Afghanistan and Pakistan aim to revive. The said next week meeting in Islamabad between the officials of Afghanistan, Pakistan, United States and China is intended as the first step towards resuming the stalled negations. It is an undeniable fact that resumption of peace talks is the only way out for both the warring parties of Afghanistan. Pakistan maintains that its role should not be visualized beyond the scope of a facilitator. It is yet to be witnessed that how the negative and positive forces navigate through the delicate afghan security situation and bring about the desired changes to augment peace and prosperity in the region.
Uncertainties and confusion lingering over Afghanistan could also affect Central Asian countries’ positions and approaches towards Afghanistan, including short and medium term changes in the social, economic and political conditions.
There are some regional concerns which are based on the apprehensions that the negative extremist Influences from Afghanistan may actually be more catalysts than driving forces for conflicts in Central Asia. Experts are of the view that the West and Russia have apparently little appetite for addressing security issues in Afghanistan, bolstering the Central Asian states own capacities may be a better way to increase regional resilience and to limit the negative influences from Afghanistan, primarily the drugs trade. In other words, Central Asia would always be volatile and require external support to handle its regional security challenges. Judging from the current situation in and around Afghanistan, the Central Asian countries are most likely to bolster their efforts to establish political dialogue with all forces inside Afghanistan, as well as with neighbouring countries and leading powers that support a unified Afghan State.
Pakistan’s sincere efforts are indicative of her willingness to contribute and dedicate her efforts to achieve the peaceful and prosperous region. If positivism from Afghanistan is observed by the regional countries, then these countries are likely to assist Afghanistan in addressing social and economic concerns and supporting projects to develop a growing and sustainable Afghan economy. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, in all probability, would focus on bilateral relations, while Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are more likely to rely on multilateral institutions that are already involved in the restoration of Afghanistan. Keeping in view the overall situation in the region and the China’s role in helping Afghanistan there are brilliant chances of economic boom in the region making a desirable, peaceful and prosperous Afghanistan.
