Muhammad Saeed
Pakistan, already in the process of developing nuclear programme during late seventies, was compelled to step up its nuclear systems in the presence of explicit and hidden hostilities, traditionally from India which lies on the eastern border of Pakistan, when this threat kept burgeoning from yet another powerful adversary of that time on western border too, as erstwhile Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan during early eighties. Since India was most faithful strategic ally of USSR in the region while Pakistan was in the opposite camp, hence ensuing environment on both sides of the country became extremely critical particularly with the chances of a devastating military venture by India taking advantage of the vulnerability and level of relationship with USSR.
A sustainably superior nuclear arsenal as well robust safety and security mechanism was yet again essential in the wake of the US and NATO involvement in Afghanistan under the phenomenon of “Operation Enduring Freedom” in post 9/11 scenario, that also manifested assorted threats to Pakistan’s strategic programme in a more amplified but drastically complex manner. Pakistan thus has been facing existentional threat and unparalleled challenges from many directions and dicey actors including vacillating collaboration with the US especially in the WOT. Essentially the spill over effects of two ventures by two global powers into Afghanistan at short intervals, were key concerns for Pakistan, resulting into multiplication of threat of a direct or proxy war by India through state and non-state actors especially in view of arrant appetite for sorting out nuclear Pakistan. This fervent desire is co-sequencing with the latest manoeuvring of global powers to place India in Afghanistan. In such a dicey situation, Pakistan was never to blink its eye particularly with regard to nuclear capacity building with a matching protective system for safeguarding its strategic weapons.
Fast forward; in trying to break the perpetual Indian and western created cycle of paranoia associating terror with Pakistan’s nuclear programme particularly in the aftermath of Afghan wars and also latest initiation of Zarb-e-Azb, Pakistan has done everything what global powers failed to challenge terrorism. Pakistan has almost eliminated all types of extremists while focusing on close relations with China within the framework of Gwadar-Xinjiang Economic Corridor. This topical advancement has exasperated Pakistan’s primary and secondary adversaries to a level of panic leading to yet again use of iniquitous tools of associating terrorism with Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. In line with advises of Sun Tzu on tackling antagonists thus: “If an enemy has created alliances, the problem is grave…”, so work to sever those alliances”. Correspondingly, India is lured for closing ranks with the US to sever connections of Pakistan with China and Iran by associating small and big nuclear weapons with extremists.
A recent article of Indian army Brigadier Arun Bajpai, published in the net edition on April 13, 2016, is a magnum opus of pathetic propagation. He writes that Pakistan has initiated a war against terrorists under the name of Zarb-e- Azb, but at the same time claims that Pakistani forces and terrorist bear similar ideology since General Zia era, would permit terrorists to steal dirty bomb to use it against India. He also forgets about the truth that if at all Jihadis have links with Pakistani forces then they would have never conducted operation against extremists. Likewise these terrorists would instead prefer to filch Indian or Western nuclear weapons to use it against anybody including India but why play a role to undermine Pakistan, which in the opinion of Arun Bajpai, is a well-wisher of Jihadis.
Indian official seems to have critical knowledge about the weak nuclear security measures of his country as compared to the measure taken by Pakistan. He must have gone through a number of reports on this issue including the Harvard Kennedy School report “Preventing Nuclear Terrorism” and NTI Index reports 2014 as well the latest report of 2016. Harvard School report, though not favouring Pakistan for obvious reasons, says that Indian nuclear security measures are far weaker than Pakistan’s which has substantially strengthened its nuclear security in the past two decades. This report acknowledges the changes Pakistan has made in the organizations which govern nuclear security, training, equipment and approaches to screening employees in addition to upgrading requirements for nuclear material accounting and control, approaches to strengthening security culture and substantial changes in every other aspect of nuclear safety and security. Contrarily, the Nuclear Threat Initiative’s (NTI) 2014 Nuclear Security Index, which ranks 24 countries that possess “one kilogram or more of weapons-usable nuclear materials” across a range of indicators of nuclear security, including Pakistan and India, reproaches India for its low ranking, which places it below both China and Pakistan for nuclear materials security. In the 2016 iteration of the index, however, there is a slight good news for India. Notably, its ranking on nuclear materials security is improved, placing it one rank ahead of Pakistan.
In NTI reports both South Asian nuclear powers receive a comparable aggregate score across the relevant indicators, which include the quantities and sites where nuclear materials are stored, their security and control measures, adherence to global norms, domestic commitments and capacity, and their risk environments. Although, because of trickery in the international diplomacy, India outperforms Pakistan on some of the global norms measure but out-rightly lags behind Pakistan on the measure for domestic commitments and capacity, which is the key element with regard to taking care of nuclear material. India by and large has been categorized as indifferent to material safety leading to more chances of theft by an insider or a terrorist. Report highlights that Indian regulations for nuclear sites are written as guidance rather than as binding requirements. Additionally, India also lacks an independent regulatory agency though it has pledged to establish one, while Pakistan has already implemented its obligation.
The 2016 country profile for India in the NTI index affirms that India’s improved ranking is categorically due to its participation “in bilateral assistance activities with the US which enjoys requisite influence on International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as well as NSG. Likewise the NTI index expresses concerns about India’s lack of attention to the issue of “insider threats,” an issue that was also highlighted in a recently published Foreign Policy article. Meanwhile, the NTI index scores for Pakistan across are also not very discouraging in given environment where Pakistan is often cited by India and American led west as one of the dangerous countries in the world on the alleged issues of its growing nuclear arsenal, investment into low-yield battlefield nuclear weapons, and unstable internal environment. The NTI index while reflecting these half-truths still acknowledges that Pakistan’s domestic commitments and capacity to prevent the theft of nuclear materials are fairly good in the region as compared to India. Pakistan is appreciated for managing to outrank India, Israel, Iran, and North Korea because Pakistan, unlike India, has an independent regulatory agency and robust domestic nuclear materials security legislation in place.
Though India may have slightly surpassed Pakistan in the 2016 NTI index, the overall picture of nuclear security is not reassuring as India like Pakistan still remain outside of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Pakistan may get ready to sign additional protocols on nuclear regimes provided India says yes to at least those twenty three unanimously agreed UN resolutions which accepted the right of self-determination for Kashmir. Contrarily, Indian military experts like Brigadier Bajpai tries to stimulate Indians to send firm messages to Pakistan that India will wipe out Pakistan come what may; his bragging comes especially after Indian nuclear submarine Arihant capable of launching short and long range missiles, sails out successfully. South Asia hence will remain the most likely region for the first post-Second World War use of nuclear weapons if India continues to behave indifferently.
