Mubarak Baloch
Peace in Afghanistan has by and large remained elusive with sense of uncertainty taking much of the space. Too many cooks, as it goes, spoil the broth. And there are a number of countries interested in Afghanistan affairs and current security situation there. US, Russia, China, Iran, India and other regional countries have their own stakes in Afghanistan. Though all want permanent peace in the country while stabilizing their respective interests. Pakistan being the next door neighbour has been bearing the brunt of the continuous mess in Afghanistan. Naturally Islamabad would like to see a peaceful neighbor denying misuse of its soil to anti-Pakistan element. Recently conceived and launched quadrilateral efforts involving Afghanistan, US, China and Pakistan to reach negotiated settlement to Afghan imbroglio were probably moving, though at snail’s pace, in right direction when US unmanned air-craft targeted a car in Dalbadin area of Balochistan in which purportedly Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansoor was traveling. Taliban supreme with driver have been killed in attack.
Mullah Mansoor’s death would jeopardize the peace efforts. What could prompt America to eliminate Mullah Mansoor? A perception held is that the incident may have some political relevance in the wake of ongoing electioneering in America. Other view is that US being aversive to China’s rise in the region wants to allow at least a level of simmering in area to do as inhibitive. If true, CPEC is the likely ultimate victim. Attack on Mansoor can also be seen in the backdrop of recent series of Taliban offensive in Kabul and elsewhere in Afghanistan inflicting heavy losses.
Now there could be two possibilities. One: Taliban may be the victim of polarization over the succession issue of Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansoor. This may cause fragmentation within Taliban ranks. It will be difficult for Kabul to handle polarized Taliban ranks. Obviously it is not easy to huddle all factions together for peace negotiations. Second: Taliban may, with consensus, smoothly transfer the mantle of leadership and get united against US and Afghanistan government. Being overpowered by the sense of vengeance they may unleash their militant muscle on more targets in Afghanistan. Irreconcilably vindictive Taliban may be lethal to dent Afghanistan every hither and thither creating chaos and unrest in country. Understandably, mayhem and chaotic situation would weaken Ashraf Ghani’s regime. The morass would be there haunting wish for peace.
US decision targeting Taliban leader is fraught with serious implications. Though Washington must have obviously carried out this drone attack taking Ashraf Ghani on board. The latter cannot militarily challenge Taliban unless he may constructively transform the existing governance structure and do away with unabated rampant corruption first. Besides, strengthening the capacity of local police, paramilitary force and Afghan national army should be his priority. Forces’ capacity building is essential to meet the security challenges.
On the other hand TTA (Tahreek-e-Taliban Afghanistan) in post-Mansoor scenario is likely to consider few options. First: Both first and second tier leadership of Taliban would coalesce the Taliban elements as a part of pre-emption against likely polarization. Second: Consensus development would be the priority of Taliban in order to nominate its leader. Third: Taliban would prefer to embark upon vindictive spree with high profile as their likely targets. Be it the polarization within Taliban ranks or unity with consensus, peace in Afghanistan would remain a distant dream in either case if the drones are let loose to hit them. Taliban militants are known for exhibiting resilience. The latter would enable them to sustain the loss and re-emerge with fresh vigour. Howsoever, they be battered Taliban are unlikely to disappear from Afghanistan as they are the reality to be reckoned with. Both US and Afghanistan leadership may be doing this to soften intransigent Taliban but such policy would back-fire making permanent peace in Afghanistan as the ultimate victim. On the other hand government of Pakistan has raised the issue of violation of its sovereignty with US authorities by calling US ambassador Mr David Hale to foreign office. Though President Barak Obama and US State Department said that sovereignty of Pakistan must be upheld but any terrorist can be targeted who is threatening peace in the region and targeting US forces. This statement smells duplicity. Pakistan should wait and see what Taliban Shura is going to decide and to see what is the next course of action of Taliban leadership. There are a number of contenders for Taliban leadership like Mullah Sirjudin Haqqani, Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob and like. Afghanistan government and US leadership are probably on the same page to woo the Taliban factions which may feel marginalized and left out. And rest of Taliban would be weakened by launching attacks, surgical operations etc. This war is unlikely to end and the region is the victim of divergent interests of regional and international forces.
