Mubarak Baloch
Yet again a suicide attack hit a minibus carrying security guards of a private company in Kabul killing over a dozen and injuring several others. Peace appears to be a distant dream. Transition seems to be difficult. The current dispensation is beleaguered from every angle. The writ of government is restricted within Kabul and that also is sometimes shaken with the Taliban forays. Besides, a new web of proxies is seen mushrooming entangling Pakistan with aim to create internal security situation. Afghanistan’s security apparatus is quite weak and unsustaining as the foreign troops are banked up. Recent clash of Afghan border force with Pakistan’s border security personnel further added to already sour situation. Afghanistan is not yet out of the woods.
NATO forces spearheaded by America kept on battling against militancy for years and subsequently withdrew in bulk albeit skeleton presence is still there yet the militancy did not end. Amid speculative environment questioning the command integrity of Taliban after demise of Mullah Umer opinion emerged that Taliban may face some internal polarization and dissipate but all proved otherwise. Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansur as successor of Mullah Umer had intensified the fight against Afghan security forces and foreign troops with a renewed vigor. A number of suicide attacks with a large number of causalities including recent fall of Kunduz province, though brief; to Taliban threatened the so-called government writ.
Peace talks got stalled after Mullah Umer’s demise was made public by Afghan authorities. Pakistan was on it with its persuasive sermons to Taliban for peace talks when Mullah Akhtar Mansur was droned to death. Thus doomed the prospects of talks and early resumption of peace process is unlikely. To help refloat the sinking morale of Afghan government US droned Mullah Mansur. Infact the attack was disservice to Pakistan’s efforts for peace. Besides; the drone attack also challenged the sovereignty of Pakistan which Islamabad has already protested.
To further compound the situation Afghan security forces questioned the constructing of a security gate at Torkham by Pakistan. Situation turned worst when exchange of fire took place which resulted into several casualties on both sides. Pakistan earlier handed over Angoor Adda security check-post to Afghan security forces with a view to make mutual atmosphere more comfortable.
The fresh developments in Afghanistan are not boding well for permanent peace in country. Kabul probably thinks that by making and taking issues with Pakistan, the latter would be reduced to a receiving end which is probably not a wise perception. Pakistan has been battling against militancy from multiple fronts and has achieved many successes. While being in the atmosphere of self-created uncertainty Kabul has developed a perception showing that Pakistan is insincere in its efforts to help bring peace in Afghanistan. Out of despair Afghan authority has allowed itself to be used against Pakistan. Making tri-country alliance to develop Chahbahar port of Iran connected with a road network facilitating Afghanistan to overcome its dependence on Pakistan is unlikely to do away with the irritants Afghanistan is presently confronting. Hobnobbing with arch-rival of Pakistan is not liked by Islamabad and nurturing proxies is going to create a more complex situation for Afghanistan. Rather Kabul is probably inadvertently helping a similar situation to develop as had happened in 1979. By then two rivals USA and then USSR had clashed in Afghanistan spoiling even the institutional structure there and country is yet to come out of that morass. By setting one country against other in Afghan soil Afghanistan leadership is going to undertake reincarnation of the cold war era situation.
To avert the slide to worse situation there is need to mull over the circumstances and devise a strategy to exit from this ‘proxy environment’ which is more damaging for Afghanistan than for other two countries namely Pakistan and India. There is other growing concern that Afghanistan’s irritant situation is probably being exploited by America against Pakistan in order to dissuade Islamabad to detach itself from China’s activities apparently aimed to promote regional trade and commerce in South and Central Asia but Americans fear that China is making efforts to emerge in region as regional power wielder. Washington would step up its efforts to scuttle the plans of China. Afghanistan, India and other likeminded forces would be used to create hurdles for China. USA has already spent close to trillion dollars in Afghanistan and suffered over a thousand casualties but due to China factor Washington evinces renewed interest and situation would unfold in time to come generating analysts’ interest to analyze and comment on the evolving situation. Permanent peace in Afghanistan is likely to remain the victim.
