Ahmad Nadeem
The United States and its international partners have expended substantial resources since 2001, to secure, stabilize, and rebuild Afghanistan. Recent developments, however, indicate that progress towards these strategic goals are lagging behind. The Taliban has seized swaths of rural Afghanistan in such provinces as Helmand, Uruzgan, Nangarhar, and Kunduz. Over the past years, Taliban forces have also conducted several offensives against district and provincial capitals. In September 2015, for example, the northern city of Kunduz temporarily fell to the Taliban before being retaken by government forces. Meanwhile, the effectiveness of the National Unity Government continues to be undermined by poor governance and internal friction between President Ashraf Ghani, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Abdullah Abdullah, and their supporters. Experts argument leads to believe that an apparent calm at the moment between the two power shared personalities could erupt any time, which could result into significant worsening of the political and security situations in Afghanistan. More specifically, there is a growing risk that the current National Unity Government in Kabul could collapse due to severe security and economic crisis, the establishment of a parallel government, or a coup d’état. There is also a growing possibility that the Taliban could gain substantial territory in one or more provinces like in Kunduz. These contingencies would amount to a strategic reversal for the United States, since Washington was instrumental in helping create the National Unity Government in 2014. Experts believe that these developments would also likely increase the presence of Islamic extremist groups, including Al-Qaeda.
The potential and ability to launch successful offensive by the Taliban through the exploitation of inherent weaknesses of the Afghan forces besides the foreign forces could weaken an already fragile government. Both could lead to a significant contraction of government control in Afghanistan. The National Unity Government’s poor governance, deteriorating economic conditions, widespread corruption, disagreements over reconciliation with the Taliban, and competition for power among political elites. President Ghani has clashed with the Afghan Parliament on numerous issues and failed to secure early appointments for some critical positions, such as the Defense Minister. Several other major political issues have also remained unresolved. According to an earlier Asia Foundation polls , 57 percent of Afghans said their country was moving in the wrong direction, citing insecurity, unemployment, corruption, bad government, and other factors. Earlier, in 2014, some Afghan elites, including some supporters of Abdullah, threatened to form a parallel government rather than accept one led by President Ghani. Many Afghan political elites including former President Hamid Karzai, parliament member Abdul Rasul Sayyaf, former National Directorate of Security chief Amrullah Saleh, and former Afghan Ambassador to Pakistan Mohammad Omar Daudzai, have been deeply critical of the government. There are still potential possibilities that could disrupt the fragile balance between the two opposite personalities, which would not be a positive sign for the regional countries.
Deteriorating economic conditions, corruption, or government ineffectiveness could all trigger public protests. Specific examples might include a poor harvest, rising unemployment, ethnic discrimination, or severe and prolonged energy shortages. The unrest might range from contained, nonviolent protests to bloody riots that spread to other cities, districts, and provinces. There have been riots in cities like Kabul and Kandahar over the past decade, but most have been in response to actions by foreign governments, such as the 2012 burning of Qurans at Bagram Air Base. In May 2016, however, thousands marched in Kabul to protest the proposed construction of an electricity transmission line, temporarily bringing the city to a standstill.
On the other hand Afghanistan has also failed to stop India working against Pakistan by exploiting the afghan soil, despite her tall claims of adopting the policy of non interference and stopping to exploit her soil against any country. India’s nexus and exploitation of so-called religious extremists outfits like TTP, AQIS etc has become a pronounced reality in Afghanistan and abroad. These organizations under different covers and narrative, not only created unpleasant situation for Pakistan regionally and internationally but also challenged the writ and authority of the State/government. India has been exploiting various proxies to destabilize or defame Pakistan. Indian Prime minister Mr. Modi in a recent past speech in Bangladesh confessed that “Indian establishment created “Mukti Bahini” in East Bengal to dismember Pakistan. Presently, they are exploiting sub nationalists in Balochistan and Sindh in the same presumption that it would recreate the same old scenario. India’s anti Pakistan schemes are not limited to use of TTP/AQIS and sub-nationalists elements as proxies, but its incumbent Hindu extremist leadership have been exploring other options too to defame and destabilize Pakistan. Reportedly, in a late 2014 attempt, Indian NSA Ajit Doval visited Syria and Iraq on pretexts of assisting Indian external ministry (EAM) in evacuation of stranded Indian people, however, the secret visit was used to create contact with ISIS leadership. Indian consulate in Qandhar, Afghanistan was utilized for creating harmony and contact between TTP and ISIS elements. India’s urge to replace TTP with ISIS is explicitly Pakistan, Afghanistan and China oriented. As the region is expected to witness increasing economic activities, India is desirous to counter such developments and enhancing influence of China with ISIS phenomena. TTP and disenchanted Taliban in Afghanistan are lured in to join ISIS ranks which are propagated as “Al Khorasan” in Afghanistan. By exploiting ISIS phenomenon in Afghanistan, R&AW is also attempting to generate skepticism about safety of Pakistan’s nuclear programme. It has been propagated by ISIS/Al-Khorasan elements that a nuclear device will be bought from Pakistan. Experts of the subject also apprehend that to augment such theory against Pakistan, even Indian intelligence outfit could plan to provide a dirty nuclear bomb to terrorist organizations to create havoc in their own country or Pakistan/China/Afghanistan and then point fingers towards Pakistan. India is sponsoring foreign terrorists (Uzbeks’, Chechens, Tajiks etc) through Afghanistan soil against Pakistan and China. Indian contacts with ISIS are evident from the fact that R&AW managed to wave ISIS flags during Kashmir Freedom Movement rallies waving Pakistani Flags. UN should take notice of Indian’s state sponsored terrorist activities, their leadership’s violent statement and confessions regarding terrorist activities against Pakistan. Besides, the recently apprehended terrorists and agents of India and Afghanistan, involved in subversive activities against Pakistan should be condemned at international forums and UN. In this regard Afghanistan must also play a positive role to contribute her efforts towards peace and prosperity for the region and the world.
