Saman Hamid
It seems many are taking inspiration from President Donald Trump. Indian Defence Minister, Mannohar Parrikar recently on a book launch said that, “We are a responsible nuclear power and I will not use it irresponsibly”, this comes instead of the usual Indian stance of “no first use”. The statement caused quite uproar and was immediately classified as “personal” comments in the Indian media. This came on the eve of Nuclear Supplier’s Group (NSG) summit this November, where both India and Pakistan tried their luck at the bid for membership. The NSG is a body that in layman’s terms legitimizes nations to trade nuclear power, possessing trigger points indicating when this crosses the line into proliferation of weapons. Mr. Parrikar’s statement affirms irresponsibility and an underlying overconfidence of the Indian leadership at large, they have weapons and they will be responsible in using them even if they are the first one. Perhaps they are too confident that the entire world is ready to side with them save China and Pakistan.
NSG is a body that came into being solely after Indian Nuclear tests of the 1970s.As non signatories of NPT; India’s only major hurdle unlike Pakistan in case of NSG is China, who vetoed India’s entry last time. Time and time again India has managed to exploit the trust of many. The Plutonium reactor Canadians gifted the Indians in 1974 led to the development of the Indian nuclear Program. India’s illicit trade with Libyans for their missile defense system released by declassified CIA documents in 2003-04 is proof of intentions that even Mr. Parrikar’s parapraxis does not need. An interesting point to note here is the positivity Canadian administration is showing towards their Indian counterparts, this is paradoxical given that history saw their good intentions getting exploited in the first place. One of the biggest boasts that came to the Indian bid though is the treaty that they have signed with Japan. Termed as the “Civil Nuclear Deal”, in addition to nine other bi-lateral trade agreements Japan will officially export nuclear energy to India. Shinzoe Abe and Modi signed this deal after six years of deliberations, other nations that have previously signed such deals with India are; US, Russia, South Korea, Mongolia, France, Namibia, Argentina, Canada, Kazakhstan and Australia. The major reason why this treaty is more than significant is in the backdrop of Japans being the only nation affected by nuclear weapons. This fact alone is boosting Indian marketing strategists to pose their nation as safe and responsible and someone who can be trusted to trade despite not signing NPT. Thus there are two immediate benefits of this deal; the first one is that it will enable Indians to succeed in isolating China’s opposition to NSG membership a bit more adding on the pressure to by-pass their veto in granting Indian membership, secondly this will also garner greater Japanese influence in the region especially in the wake of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Japan wants to counter their rivals China and their allies especially the US is also keen on exploiting all avenues to make friends of the “enemies of their enemies”.
In the actual NSG summit on November 11, this year though there are three countries that still opposed India. Austria, Ireland and China still stand by the NPT clause that vindicates the group’s opposition to Pakistan’s entry. For the Indian media it is mainly China having nullified some major opposition in the form of Brazil, New Zealand and Turkey. Earlier this year efforts were being put into cajoling China as well but so far it seems all the positives that came out of those efforts was nullified in the summit. As far as Pakistan is concerned; as a non signatory of NPT our entrance is majorly opposed but India was promised an overlook by the US and others and more significantly by Japan.
Japan signing a deal with India, literally bearing the wounds of Hiroshima and Nagasaki to date after Mr. Parrikar explicitly expressed the desire to be the first one even if on a personal level with the office still in his possession seems to be perplexing to activists but is unfortunately too blatant; It is all but geostrategic in nature. Everyone is highly perturbed by CPEC and its progress despite all types of covert and overt attempts to stall progress. China is at the brink of gaining a gateway officially on November 13, this too was vindicated by our PM upon inauguration of Gwadar port. In the backdrop of all these events the USA, Japan and all other major forces in their bid for world dominance in terms of trade and economic benefits eye India as a strategic partner. This is perhaps the sole reason why Pakistan feels like a foster child in case of NSG when India is in the same position and ironically the sole reason why the entity came into being in the first place. What the world must realize though is the fact, that words do not hold substance in conflicts and this will not be the first time next time when India will not hold its words, as their entire nuclear arsenal stands as a testament of that.
