Muhammad Saeed
China is not investing in Pakistan alone, though it is apparently becoming major source of exasperation for India and some of the western countries, but China is empowering other regions through CPEC projects by exploring new vistas of trade with different countries including Central Asian States, Gulf countries and Europe. Nevertheless, in the economic connectivity game the CPEC surely provides multilateral boost to Pakistan because of its unwavering relations with China and more so due to its strategic position that provides China as well as other regional countries like Russia an unprecedented short route access to world markets. India has thus started behaving excessively irrational in the recent times to react against CPEC by erratically letting loose country’s military might in addition to unleashing oblique tactics of terrorism and sabotage against Pakistan to yet again put a tab on CPEC initiatives. One recent example of ludicrousness and frustration on the part of India was Pakistan Navy’s pushing back of an Indian nuclear submarine after being detected near Pakistan’s territorial waters. Unsatisfied with the ceaseless ceasefire violations on LoC and International boundary with Pakistan, India has resorted to target innocent civilians who travel in public transport as well as ambulances which carry those persons who got injured or killed as a result of Indian shelling in areas close to the LoC in AJK.
India’s currently exhibited behaviour however, is unlikely to help in furthering its objective of restricting wide-ranging economic connectivity to other regions including Central Asia and Afghanistan. China and Pakistan are on the other hand celebrating 65th anniversary of diplomatic ties this year because over the past six and half decades both countries have enjoyed very friendly relations which continue to further evolve into an all-weather cooperative geo-strategic partnership. In this age of geo-economics, both Pakistan and China have also become geo-economic partners in July 2013, when high officials of both countries signed the MoU in Beijing in the presence of Chinese Premier, Mr. Li Keqiang and Pakistan’s PM Nawaz Sharif. The MoU was aimed at enhancing economic regional integration in investment, energy, trade and communications that would facilitate economic activity of the region within the framework of CPEC.
Let us take an over view of the outline of CPEC that has irritated India which by any definition is trying to vent its enmity against a prospective strong Pakistan. After lengthy deliberations between the governments of China and Pakistan on financing and the construction of CPEC, during the state visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Pakistan in April 2015, two countries signed formal agreement to commence work on the mega project of CPEC which is a fifteen year plan and will be completed in at least four phases, i.e. early harvest in 2018, short term projects in 2020, medium term projects in 2025 and long term projects in 2030. The project at present includes at least twenty one energy projects with the capacity of producing 16500 megawatts of electricity costing US$34.5 billion. Out of these, fourteen projects are likely to be completed by the end of 2018 and these will add an estimated10, 400 megawatts of electricity to the national grid enabling the country to come out of energy deficit. While making up the existing shortage of 4500 megawatts of electricity in Pakistan, it will provide additional 5900 megawatts of electricity, which will be required to complete infrastructure projects related to CPEC. The CPEC also includes two transport infrastructure sector projects of construction roads and railways costing US$10 billion, Gwadar port expansion related projects, including construction of an international airport in Gwadar, costing one billion dollars and laying of cross border optical fiber cable from the Chinese border to Islamabad.
CPEC related mega projects and the corridor connecting Kashghar city of China with Pakistan’s Gwadar port by road, air and optical fiber cable has been termed as a “game changer” for Pakistan and the region, since the corridor also links China, Central Asia, South Asia, West Asia, North Africa and Gulf states through economic and energy cooperation. Completion of CPEC will not only connect these regions but also facilitate regional connectivity in South Asia, thus giving significant strategic, macro and micro economic advantages to Pakistan and to the regional countries, like Afghanistan, Iran and India.
As far as the advantages of CPEC to China are concerned, firstly, in terms of the trade route, China mainly relies on the shopping route that passes through the Strait of Malacca and it takes some 45 days to reach Europe via the Middle East. When the CPEC is completed, it would take approximately 10 days for Chinese shipments to reach their destination, as the Kashghar-Gwadar route will play a pivotal role in reducing the staggering amount of time and distance. This route will be helpful in the development of industrial sector of China’s Western region as short distance from Gwadar port to Kashghar would decrease transportation cost. Because of better regional connectivity, China will also be able to invest in South Asia, West Asia and Gulf regions in a major way. Secondly, in strategic terms, this route is likely act as and alternative to the route passing through Malacca straits. China’s lesser reliance on Malacca route would provide it a strategic advantage in case of tensions in the Asia Pacific and South China Sea.
The major Strategic advantages of CPEC to Pakistan would be; further consolidation of existing strategic partnership with China on a long term basis and enhancing its strategic importance as a bridge between the European, Asian and African Continents. The macro and micro economic advantages of CPEC will accrue to Pakistan due to heavy Chinese investment leading to creation of new jobs, addressing power shortages and increasing production due to the availability of power to agriculture, manufacturing and services sectors. Resultantly national income will also increase due to production from the new industrial zones along the CPEC, increase in Pakistan’s trade and availability of transit charges on other countries’ trade to be carried out through CPEC.
Completion of CPEC, despite the continuous Indian efforts to sabotage it, would also be of great benefit to Afghanistan, Iran and other SAARC countries in terms of trade and transportation of oil and gas from Iran, Central Asian Republics and the Gulf countries. It appears that, in view of its future requirements of enhancing trade with the CARs and importing energy from Iran and Gulf countries using cheaper land route through Pakistan, CPEC would be of special advantage to India too provided it choose to eschew odious posture against China and Pakistan. As a result such a major incentive might convince India to join the CPEC. If India decides to join the CPEC, it would prove to be a shorter route for its trade with CARs as compared to carrying out its trade through Iran using the Chabahar port. Indian decision to refrain from misadventure against Pakistan and China instead joining CPEC may also prove conducive to resolving long pending Kashmir issue. Pakistan and China have already decided to complete the CPEC at all costs hence Indian pigheaded attitude is unlikely to deter this initiative.
