Arab News
RAGHIDA DERGHAM
The 37th GCC Summit in Bahrain has sanctioned the resumption of Britain’s role that existed prior to the independence of some of the member states, a presence that has been dubbed “gunboat diplomacy”. It also inaugurated a Gulf-UK agreement to deter Iran and jointly confront strategic and security threats pursuant to a British commitment to help safeguard the GCC six member states.
The message sent out by British Prime Minister Theresa May, the guest of honor at the gathering, was unequivocal: “Gulf security is our security,” she told the assembled leaders, vowing that Britain was aware of the strategic threat posed by Iran to the Gulf and wider Middle East.
May pledged to work together to deter Iran’s aggressive behavior in the region — whether in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, or the Gulf itself. The mechanism for Britain to fulfill its commitments will be an upgraded British base in Bahrain, facilitated by the Bahraini government, and with broad implications for the Gulf region.
The strategic partnership between the GCC and Britain, which the Bahraini king said represented a qualitative shift in their relations, comes at a time when Russia is consolidating its foothold in the Middle East via Syria, where Moscow both maintains bases and is an active party in the civil war, alongside the forces of Bashar Assad.
But the British rush to forge strategic security and trade ties with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain also constitutes a message to Trump’s America that London intends to press forward with close engagement of the Gulf states, whether US President-elect Donald Trump wants to be part of the partnership or not.
Yet according to reports, there are indications that the US intends to maintain long-term presence in the region, possibly through military bases. The US needs to guarantee a permanent presence in Iraq after the battle for Mosul, said Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend, the commander of the US-led coalition in Iraq and Syria, at the summit. The division of spheres of influence through the military presence of the major powers in the Middle East is a clear signal that a new regional order is emerging, and also of the restoration of the security equilibrium in the Gulf region.
Bahrain, by hosting the GCC Summit and surrounding events within the space of three days, succeeded in scoring internal and regional security achievements, sending a message to Iran that Bahrain’s regional and international support are rock solid.
The visit by the British premier to Manama was her first to the Gulf region since she has been in office. According to one veteran Gulf commentator, the visit marked “the return of British imperialism to the Gulf.” But the UK’s comeback is timely, according to some figures from the Gulf and Bahrain, the latter being the soft belly of the Arabian Gulf region that Iran has exploited to meddle in the region’s affairs. Britain’s strong presence through the UK naval base in Bahrain will guarantee some deterrence that all sides, particularly Iran, are sure to take stock of. Bahrain is in need of a partner that understands its composition, one with whom there are historical relations and one that is reliable and dependable.
This does not mean that Bahrain or the Gulf have decided to forfeit historical security ties with the US or replace the US with the UK as their exclusive strategic partner. Bahraini Foreign Minister Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al-Khalifa was clear in saying that the enhanced and expanded partnership with Britain was not at all a response to the perceived US retreat from the region, or an indication that the Gulf countries intend to abandon the strategic partnership with the US. The final statement of the Manama summit said that the Gulf countries looked forward to enhancing historical and strategic ties with the United States.
This does not invalidate the clear reality, despite the hopes harbored by the Gulf countries of renewed US interest in them, that Britain has decided not to wait for the demystification of ambiguous US policies on the Gulf before acting. Britain took the initiative to remove any ambiguity or hesitation regarding UK-Gulf relations, sought after by the government of May especially in the wake of Brexit, in order to expand the British-Gulf partnership through an institutional commitment, and consolidate it at all levels through strategic engagements based on shared security, economic, and technological interests. This came in the midst of Gulf doubts regarding US policies in the region, especially under Barack Obama, and on the eve of the transition into unchartered waters under President-elect Donald Trump. The British reassurance came at a time when the countries of the GCC were in dire need for reaffirming the bond with major Western powers.
This development could prompt Iran to respond with threats and escalate against Gulf countries, starting with Bahrain. Some in the Gulf expect this, but without the usual apprehension. Indeed, Britain has reassured Gulf leaders that it will not accept provocations or stand idly by Iranian meddling and attempts to destabilize the Gulf, and would provide deterrence through its military base in Bahrain. It is difficult to imagine that Britain could confront Iran militarily to defend the Gulf countries, however, particularly since London was a close partner of Washington in the Iraq War, which presented Iraq to Iran on a silver platter. It is hard to envisage a British-Iranian military clash, also because Britain was one of the key countries that pushed for the nuclear deal with Iran, which emboldened the latter.
