Iqbal Khan
So far President Trump is demonstrating his commitment to do what he said during his electoral campaign, and interestingly, he has picked some of the most controversial items of the menu for immediate implementation. Afghanistan was not a contentious issue during the electoral campaign, and Trump had shown inclination for, by and large, maintaining status quo. And his address to the US troops stationed in Kabul point towards continuation of same mindset. “I’m with you all the way… we’re going to do it together…the courage that you show is incredible.”he told the troops. If he goes by the trend then immediate foreign troop reduction may not be in sight, which is the main asking of Taliban led insurgency in Afghanistan. Hence, there may not be any meaningful Taliban participation in the ongoing or forthcoming peace processes.
Afghan Taliban commanders and Afghan chapter of Daeshare of the view that Trump’s campaign rhetoric against them will boost their recruitment efforts. “This guy [trump] is a complete maniac. His utter hate towards Muslims will make our job much easier because we can recruit thousands,” Abu Omar Khorasani, recently told Reuters.
However, a flurry of diplomatic activity has begun at regional and international levels for commencing follow-up actions as soon as Trumps articulates his intent with regard to Afghanistan. Not hearing from him so far indicates that Afghanistan is a low priority item on its agenda. Notwithstanding Trump’s mindset, this issue is likely to present one of most obstinate foreign policy dilemma to his administration.
If that be so, then Afghanistan may be poised to simmer during Trump presidency as well.However, Pakistani policymakers feel that change of guards in Washington could offer an opportunity to address some of the issues positively. After the Afghan people, Pakistan has the highest stakes in peace and stability in Afghanistan.
Most of professional level assessments about Afghanistan suggest that the factors responsible for the deteriorating security situation are internal to Afghanistan; these include: United Nation’s Study of 2014; General Nicholson’s assessment of December 2016; and numerous assessments bythe US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction.
During recent meeting between Pakistan’s Adviser to PM on foreign affairs, Sartaj Aziz, and Britain’s Ambassador to Afghanistan, Dominic Jermey, it has come to surface that the UK is desirous to play the role of facilitator between Pakistan and Afghanistan.Franz Michael Mellbin, EU Special Representative on Afghanistan, has also recently called on Sartaj Aziz and both sides exchanged views on peace and security in Afghanistan. Mellbin expressed confidence that the international community would stand by its commitment made during the Brussels Conference for continued assistance towards Afghan peace, reconstruction and development. Of late, Russia has also begun showing interest in Afghanistan.
Afghan chief executive Abdullah Abdullah has expressed hope that the United States would continue its support for the Afghan government after American President Donald Trump publicly spoke with US troops in Afghanistan. “I want to congratulate the US president on behalf of myself, the Afghan government and the people of Afghanistan,” Abdullah said. Abdullah, interpreted Trump’s comments to the troops as a positive sign-continuity of Obama policy. A well-meaning former cabinet member of the Afghan Taliban regime, Mullah Agha Jan Mutasim, has appealed to the Afghan government and the Taliban on January 24: “not to miss the chance of peace negotiations, as I foresee heavy fighting this year… The chances of holding a dialogue decrease with the rise in violence; therefore, it is necessary for all sides to the conflict to act now and take advantage of the lull in the fighting during winter.” Mutasim is of the view that start of peace talks depends mainly on the Afghan government, and the Taliban could come up with a positive response if government adopt a serious approach. “The Afghan government should also involve influential personalities who have contacts with the Taliban rather than looking towards other countries,” the Taliban leader said.
Afghan rulers should have a mechanism and political will to encourage the Taliban to come to the negotiating table. Possibility of the political process to succeed are strong if the new American administration shifts its focus from using force to accommodating the peace process. Improved relations between the US and Russia could also have added impact on the peace efforts.
On their part, Afghan Taliban have urged President Trump to review his predecessors’ policies towards Afghanistan, as those policies had failed to achieve anything out of war in Afghanistan: “The people of Afghanistan … are hopeful that Trump and his cabinet will not follow the wrong policies of their predecessors and keep the US away from Afghanistan…If he follows in the footsteps of Obama and Bush, and continue illegal aggression in our country without reviewing US policies, then American troops will be facing more deaths under Trump”. During his last days in office, Obama had conceded that the situation in Afghanistan was “still tough”. In preparation of next spring offensive, Taliban chief, Mullah Hibtuallah, has changed most of the shadow governors. One of the objectives is to give tough time to government forces during the upcoming fighting season. Governors who did well during last year’s combat have been retained.
At bilateral level, Pakistan is preparing for ‘tough talk’ with Afghanistan in coming weeks when Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa travels to Kabul. He is waiting for the ‘appropriate time’ for the visit. Army chief is expected to visit Kabul after President Trump announces its policy on the Afghanistan. Afghan president has stated that his country now wanted ‘serious talks’ with Pakistan on the future of ties between the two countries. Pakistan also wants ‘serious discussions’ with Afghanistan. Pakistan’s intention for serious and meaningful discussions was meant to sort out differences between the two countries. Army Chief is likely to provide ‘compelling evidence’ of how some elements within the Afghan government are supporting terrorist groups that are launching attacks in Pakistan. He is poised to renew Pakistan’s commitment to support efforts aimed at ending lingering instability in Afghanistan.
At political level, the American and Afghan leadership are accustomed to blaming Pakistan for their own failures in Afghanistan. Mere rhetoric of blaming others is not likely to solve the problem.Former Afghan President Hamid Karzai after returning from India has urged President Trump to take action against safe havens of terrorists in Pakistan. Like a true opportunist has turned his back on President Obama just moments after he left White House and has declared his Afghan policy a failure. He rendered two point advice to Trump while speaking to The Sunday Guardian:”One, begin to help Afghanistan in reconstruction, in improvement of the economy of Afghanistan rather than wasting resources on military action…Secondly, on Pakistan, they must be very clear that a country that they call ally must become an ally and follow the same objectives. You cannot be allies and yet walk in two different directions…”
Despite an unending smearing campaign launched by Afghan leadership against Pakistan,ostensibly to cover own inadequacies and to appease the Indians, Pakistan has always shown goodwill towards Afghan people. Adviser on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz has time and againaffirmed Pakistan’s desire for meaningful dialogue with Afghan leadership on matters of bilateral relations.
Both Pakistan and Afghanistan are faced with common challenges. Given the geographical proximity, the two countries can effectively overcome most of these difficulties. Afghan leadership should engage positively with Pakistan and revive the stalled peace process.Even if Afghanistan is not a priority issue with Trump, it certainly is a top priority matter for the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
