Javed Iqbal
Afghan Government as well the independent analysts are anxiously waiting for the declaration of President Trump’s policy on Afghanistan. Experts maintain the view that apparently, President Trump dislikes Afghan war and has shown intent to stop policy of nation building of other states. Since Washington’s intervention in Afghanistan in the aftermath of 9/11, roughly 2400 American military personnel, 3500 military contractors and 1100 Allied personnel have died and more than 20,000 been wounded. Overall the US has poured more than $800 billion into the war. The US has spent $117.3 billion on relief and “reconstruction,” that is, attempting to create a functioning State in Afghanistan. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has declared the effort as, “the largest expenditure to rebuild a single country in our nation’s history.” It is more than the Marshall Plan delivered to all of Europe. The US is said to be anxiously watching the regional efforts for peace support in the region. In the context it seems to be recognizing the role of China and Russia.
Experts estimate that the greater US commitment is not impossible, and expectedly, it would probably it could translate into a few thousand more troops on the ground and some tightening of the rules of engagement, allowing foreign troops to regularly engage in combat along with the respective Afghan forces. Besides, military disadvantages and disabilities of Afghan troops, there is a political blockage, which seems to be Afghanistan’s major cause of the inability of the Afghan Armed Forces to improve its capabilities. There are some deeper causes too, like the lack of proper equipments have been earlier highlighted in the media for years. Additionally, the weaknesses of the logistical system, morale crisis of the ANA is gradually spreading , deep reforms are unlikely to be possible in the current emergency situation. But there are still measures that could be taken to achieve rapid improvements. One, could obviously be the replacement of the many inefficient and disgruntled leadership, who have not performed well in the face of Taliban’s onslaught of their summer offensive.
Afghanistan shares the largest part of its border with Pakistan, hence both the countries are intrinsically linked. Since even more Pashtun live in Pakistan than they do in Afghanistan, which offers a natural but delicate leverage to Pakistan. However, Pakistan has never ill exploited the available linkage, whereas it has never been reciprocated in same coin by Afghanistan. Conversely, Afghanistan has given an open hand to India ,quite evident from the increased activities of Indian consulates in Afghanistan. Even Afghanistan has not bothered to check or stop the hidden activities of India and other enemies from utilizing Afghanistan’s soil against Pakistan. India has very wickedly adopted a disguise of developer in Afghanistan, mostly taking part in the garb of development and road building projects.
Recent spate of terrorism in Pakistan has also put Afghan Government under serious pressure. The closure of the border and Pakistan’s action against the TTP led miscreants along Afghan border have caused the pressure. Move back of the refugees from Pakistan, Iran and repatriation from European countries is also taking toll on the Afghan Government. On the other hand number of internally displaced persons in Afghanistan has increased alarmingly. The environment in the region is changing. There is a requirement for all the stake holders to sit together and find a solution for the sake of poor Afghans. To maintain peaceful ties, it is essential to keep good security cooperation between the two countries. Experts believe that Afghanistan might be feeling quite squeezed between India and her unprecedented development projects which could be the reason behind its facilitation in Balochistan issue, and the support of TTP in Afghanistan. However, in any situation Pakistan could not be deprived from self defence to avert any such situation which could entice Afghanistan against Pakistan. In this respect all the irritants , including border management and other border related issues, Trade and commerce between the two countries must be amicably resolved. Pakistan has always showed its support for the Afghan led and owned peace process. However, the Afghans need to realize the ground realities and the changing dynamics of the international relations and mold accordingly for securing the genuine national interests of Afghanistan. The said approach would not only be fruitful for Afghanistan but the entire region and beyond.
