Anza Kanwal
General elections are scheduled to be held in Pakistan on 25 July 2018. There are total 342 seats up for grabs, out of which 272 are general seats while remaining are special seats related to women and minorities. Most of the opinion polls suggest an overall Pakistan Muslim League (N) lead with Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) being the close second. Elections play an important role in building the nation. The 342 members of the National Assembly are elected by two methods in three categories; 272 are elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting; 60 are reserved for females and 10 for ethnic and religious minority groups; both sets of reserved seats use proportional representation with a 5% electoral threshold. This proportional number, however, is based on the number of seats won rather than votes cast. To win a simple majority, a party would have to take 137 seats. For less distinguished and less fortunate people, who are interested in contesting election on any political party ticket, access to political leaders is very difficult.
General Elections 2018 will be held under new delimitation of constituencies which was result of 2017 census. As per the notification issued on March 5 2018, the Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) will have three constituencies, Punjab 141, Sindh 61, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 39, Balochistan 16 and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) will have 12 constituencies in the National Assembly. Likewise in provincial assemblies, Punjab will have 297 constituencies, Sindh 130, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 99 and Balochistan 51. In June 2017 the Economic Coordination Committee approved the procurement of new printing machines with a bridge loan of 864 million rupees. The government has also developed new software for the Election Commission of Pakistan and NADRA to ensure a “free, fair, impartial, transparent and peaceful general election.” The former Federal Law Minister Zahid Hamid elaborated that youth reaching the age of 18 will automatically be registered as voters when they apply for a CNIC from NADRA.
A pre-poll “swing” analysis by ‘election watch’ showed that out of a total 272 constituencies, 30% were ’big wins’. Out of these, 56% belonged to Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N), 18% to Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), 16% to Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and 9% to Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). The same was also reflected in Election Hattricks analysis in which there were 22% Hattrick seats out of which 47% belonged to PML-N, 24% to PPP and 15% to MQM. As the PTI didn’t contest the 2008 elections, it gets excluded from this list of seats. The role of electable candidates was only a major factor in 4% of constituencies (20% of Hattricks constituencies). Swing constituencies (about 70%) greatly rely on opinion polls, the latest of which show the PML-N and PTI being in a close contest. Political alignments are undergoing a huge shift. No party seems to have an ideological stance and with PML-N’s legislators defecting, things do not look good for the ruling party. Many ‘electables’ have already ditched PML-N. Most have joined PTI. However, their departure from PML-N ranks for greener pastures is something one often sees with fresh elections looming. Many in PML-N joined the party post 2013 elections and many were earlier members of PML-Q. PML-N had opened its door for all shades of turncoats and now is being paid back in the same coin.
The upcoming elections 2018 can be a turning-point for Pakistan, the principal responsibility to bring this change lies with no other than the people of Pakistan. There is a need to educate and sensitize general public of Pakistan of their sacred responsibility towards the state and also alert the institutions responsible for the conduct of elections to fulfill their responsibilities in the best possible manner. First, casting vote is a national responsibility of every voter. A big turnout on the voting day leads to true aspirations of the people of country and this is what a state owes from its people. Second, Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) is constitutionally duty bound to organize and conduct the elections ensuring that the elections are conduct honestly, justly, fairly and in accordance with law and that the corrupt practices are guarded against. Third, the training of polling staff plays an instrumental role in guaranteeing the credibility of the elections as they are the ones to set up the polling booths, facilitate voters, count ballots and fill-out various forms, including the results form. Fourth, media has a greater role to play during the upcoming elections. Reporting and visual coverage of the political parties should be done in an impartial manner. It means that they should not give preferential treatment to a particular political party.
