Will India send troops to Afghanistan?

Former four star General John Nicholson the commander of the American and NATO forces in Afghanistan, while agreeing that Pakistan has raised concerns about India’s growing role in Afghanistan, had welcomed New Delhi’s participation in strengthening local forces. He said the US welcomed India’s role in boosting the Afghanistan military, but there was a large requirement that needed to be fulfilled, especially when it came to spares for Russian equipment with Afghan forces. Last year, Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval had said that in view of latest terrorist attacks India could make an official offer of sending Indian troops to defend Afghan Government leaders. If more that 100000 US and NATO forces and 250000 Afghan army and police could not stop Taliban militants, how could a few thousand Indian troops could perform that miracle.
Immediately after 9/11, then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had reportedly offered assistance to the U.S.-led international efforts in Afghanistan, but the US had politely rejected the offer, as it believed that Pakistan would be justified in saying that India was trying to encircle Pakistan from western border. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visits to Afghanistan and his bonding with the Afghan top leadership has helped India make its presence integral to Afghanistan both at strategic and economic levels. Though India had strong relations with Afghanistan since it signed friendship treaty in 1950, but its desire to encircle from the western front remained unfulfilled. The then PM Manmohan Singh too reportedly wanted to increase Indian military presence in Afghanistan, but then president Barack Obama had firmly said no in view of Pakistan’s sensibilities and concerns. However, India helped Afghanistan economically and donated about $2 bn.
Manmohan Singh spent more than two billion dollars on construction of roads in Afghanistan. Prime Minister Modi has spent one billion dollars and the figure has gone up to dollars three billion. Unlike his predecessors, President Donald Trump wants Mr. Modi to put Indian boots on Afghani ground. In 2008 also, there was a proposal for deployment of two Indian army’s divisions in Afghanistan, a proposal that drew very serious consideration in New Delhi. At that time, US president Barack Obama too was fretting about the troop surge in Afghanistan. The Indian contingent was to be separate and independent of that surge, and the proposal was prompted by none else but Karazai himself. The powerful Indian establishment was all set to go for that deployment; only it was held back by some wise Indians, who warned that India could bog down in Afghanistan like Soviets earlier and Americans later.
However, peace will remain elusive and no progress can be made unless more than half of Afghanistan’s population – Pashtuns who draw the bulk of their fighters and supporters are given assurance that they will have their rightful share in power. And no other tricks or ruses are likely to work because sixteen years’ resistance shows that Pashtuns are not likely to shift their loyalties away from the Taliban in any case. Pushtuns have in fact defied predictions that they can be bought. It is true that contradictions have existed between Pushtuns and Northern alliance’s Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks for centuries but in the past they stayed together and put up a joint resistance whenever aliens invaded Afghanistan. But during Taliban era, contradictions with Northern Alliance elements developed and were exacerbated after 9/11, as the US took them on board.