THE DAY after a proposed “cessation of hostilities” came into effect at midnight on the night of February 26th, relative calm prevailed over most of Syria. On Saturday Aleppo, of late the most ferocious battleground as the regime and its allies have sought to clear out the rebels, was eerily quiet. A day later, however, the truce is looking more wobbly, amid accusations of violations.
Russia, whose foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, hammered out the deal with John Kerry, the American secretary of state, on February 22nd, grounded its aircraft as agreed on February 27th. But it resumed air strikes on February 28th. Since the autumn of last year Russia has been bombing Syria, ostensibly to fight terrorists such as Islamic State (IS), but in fact for the most part to help Bashar al-Assad bash the mainstream rebels.
The regime and the main rebel groups, who signed on to the Russian-American deal a few days after the governments agreed to it, admit the fighting has abated but have accused each other of violations. Shelling and mortar fire have been reported around Damascus. The regime is reported to have dropped barrel-bombs in the north-west of the country. By Sunday afternoon, the accusations had increased, yet nothing has yet been judged serious enough to qualify as a breaking of the truce.
This allows a little more aid to reach Syrians besieged by the regime, which is something to be celebrated. And Syrians welcomed the chance to venture out in the early spring weather. But as the reported violations rose in number, chances looked very slim that the cessation (a term that emphasises how tentative the agreement is) will hold for the full two weeks—let alone until March 7th when Staffan de Mistura, the UN’s envoy to Syria, wants to restart peace talks in Geneva. They spluttered to a halt as soon as they had begun earlier this month. True, Russia may feel that the Assad regime, with its help, is now in strong enough a position to hammer out a longer-term deal that will give it the upper hand. It was notable that Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, endorsed the deal in a rare televised address. But Mr Assad has made it patently clear that he views the truce as temporary. He has vowed to win back the whole country through military might. Many Syrians suspect that Russia and Mr Assad will now try to impose a political solution that looks good on paper but does nothing to loosen the regime’s grip on power in Syria. The opposition frets it may be let down by the UN and America, which it thinks are keener to focus on IS rather than on Syria’s domestic problems. On the same day the truce was brokered, Mr Assad promised to hold elections on April 13th for the toothless parliament that supports him.
More immediate difficulties remain. By Sunday afternoon, Russia said the opposition had made nine breaches of the truce; the opposition alleged 15 by the regime and its allies. But there is no clear definition of what will count as a breach serious enough to bring the temporary calm to an end. Russia and America have set up separate monitoring centres. IS, Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria) and other groups deemed terrorists are excluded from the deal. Given that Jabhat al-Nusra fights alongside other rebel groups in Aleppo and beyond, Russia and Mr Assad will probably argue that any strikes against them are allowed under the terms of the agreement.
For its part, IS is taking advantage of the calm to continue its military campaign. This weekend it claimed a car bomb in Hama in Syria’s west, and carried out attacks in the eastern city of Deir ez-Zor and Tel Abyad near the north-eastern border with Turkey. There is still a long way to go before the guns fall entirely silent in Syria.
- Latest
- Trending
