Shakeel Ahmad Ramay
Executive Director, Zalmi Foundation
The trade war between China and USA has been intensified after the release of National Security Strategy (NSS), 2017 of USA. Trump’s administration has declared its relationship with China as “strategic competition” and took it beyond the field of economy. NSS has declared that innovation, modern technology, and economic prosperity are key elements of its national security. A vigorous campaign has been launched by the USA to secure its interests. Washington administration is not leaving any option untouched in the pursuance of their objectives of National Security Strategy. The USA is very vocal and explicit in its campaign and treating all countries equally to seek cooperation.
Israel is the closest ally and strategic partner of the USA is also facing similar demands from the USA. Trump explicitly asked Prime Minister of Israel to comply with the policy of the USA towards China. In March 2019, Israel was communicated by White House not to venture in the field of communication technology with China otherwise the USA will limit its cooperation with Israel. US Security Advisor, John Bolton also reiterated the words of President Trump. It has compelled Israel to rethink its engagement with China. Five Eyes, alliance’s members (Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zeeland) are facing similar demands from the USA. USA is also pursuing its allies, friends and other countries to cooperate with the USA to counter China. The story of the ban on Chinese companies is another dimension of the USA actions.
The USA has felt that it has lost the decade (2001- 2010) in the war on terror and China has acquired the space in global economic and security landscape. China managed to expand globally and build strong linkages across the world. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is pushing away the USA from Asia-Pacific and other close allies. Now China is also emerging as a major player in the fields of modern technology, infrastructure, and innovation through its companies and government institutions. The anxiety of the USA to lose a place in the global architecture of economy, technology and innovation are the compelling USA to take desperate measures.
In this context, the upcoming meeting of Prime Minister Imran Khan and President Donald Trump becomes very important apart from other aspects. No doubt the terrorism and peace process in Afghanistan would be high on agenda but Pak-China relation would be a topic to follow. By keeping in mind, the USA’s actions and its strategy even with closest ally Israel compel us to think about the possible demands from the USA on Pak-China relation. It is further strengthened by the fact that Pakistan is a key ally of China and frontline member of BRI. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the flagship project of BRI.
Pakistan is already facing resistance from the USA and its allies for joining BRI and leading the CPEC. The USA has publicly shown its displeasure. Foreign Secretary of USA, Pompeo publicly announced that IMF package should not be used to pay CPEC loans, which is the self-assumed perception of USA. Although Pakistan has repeatedly declined this observation and reservation, the USA is not heeding head to it. West including USA and India also propagated that CPEC is a debt trap, which Pakistan rejected repeatedly, but still, these countries are emphasizing on their misconception. A campaign also has been launched by many western organizations by using the name of the environment and social impacts. The situation has become more complicated during the last one and half year.
Prime Minister Imran Khan will have to be very cautious about the subject of CPEC. It can come in discussion at any point during the meeting, especially during the joint press conference or any media interaction. Pakistan must develop a strategy to tackle such a situation or develop strategy and policy paper for discussion. However, there are a few things which the government can consider in developing their strategy paper.
At first place, the strategy should be to avoid any such discussion and remain on the agenda points of the meeting. The polite way would be to remind the USA that meeting is designed for something else; these things can be discussed at the appropriate time. In case it becomes necessary to discuss (it has high probability) then following things should be kept in mind.
” First, Pakistan needs to define a clear line discussion. The focus should be on its economic revival and the bilateral relationship. Pakistan should emphasize that Pakistan is a sovereign country and free to pursue its bilateral relation without compromising on its principles of the foreign policy of mutual respect and interests. Pakistan’s actions are according to norms and rules of globalization. Pakistani delegation must have a well-developed review of CPEC related projects with themselves. Pakistan should explicitly break down the impact of each intervention under the CPEC. The major point of paper should be the opportunity cost of no CPEC. It is an open fact that in 2015, Pakistan was losing US$ 4-5 billion due to electricity shortages. In 2012, Pakistan needed US$ 1.5 billion to rehabilitate the road infrastructure, which deteriorated due to continuous use of NATO containers. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) came to the lowest level. Pakistan was in dire need of a revival of the economy. No country was interested to invest in Pakistan. In the time of need, China came forward to bail out Pakistan.
” Second, Pakistan should also develop documents which can negate the perception of the USA about the debt trap dimension of CPEC. It would be a very easy task, as Pakistan has already breakdown of each and every document. Moreover, Pakistan should also highlight its domestic contribution to CPEC related projects. It will help to mitigate the notion of the debt trap.
” Third, Pakistan should highlight that Pakistan believes in a global system of mutual interests and benefits. Therefore, Pakistan is pursuing all options available to strengthen the global system. Globalization, as it was perceived, is a way for sustainable development and prosperity.
” Fourth, there is dire need of working on public diplomacy. It is critical to creating a positive way in Washington. Unfortunately, public diplomacy space is filled with critics. Although it is late, Pakistan can still manage to organize talks of Prime Minister in few universities. Universities will play a good role to disseminate perspective of Pakistan. It is certain, there would be some very difficult questions, but Pakistan should not shy away to answer. Moreover, it will also provide an opportunity for Pakistan to talk about the subjects of its choices. Moreover, media talks can also be organized to deliberate on the subjects.
” Fifth, Pakistan should activate its friends and lobbyist in Washington and New York. They must be given the task to appear in public gathering and media to cultivate a positive image of Pakistan. Moreover, social media space must be wisely used to share the history of friendly relation of both countries.
” Sixth, Pakistan should highlight its role in building a relationship between China and the USA way back in the 1970s. It helped China and USA to build a strong relationship in many fields including the trade. A neutral Pakistan in future can again play such a role. Therefore, Pakistan can ask the USA to keep Pakistan out of its policy to contain China and Pakistan will not be available for that. Moreover, Pakistan should convey to the USA that the USA is 20 years late to contain China. Therefore, the USA should concentrate to build a relationship with China. Trade war or competition will not serve the purpose, but cooperation can make this world a better place. Cooperation will also help the USA to tackle its issues relating to the economy.
” Lastly, it is closer to reality than the USA will discuss CPEC and China-Pakistan relation. Analyses of last two years’ official engagements support this argument. The USA even did not hesitate to discuss it with Israel and close allies. Moreover, USA pursued it with all means and talked to minimize its’ cooperation if allies will not toe its policy of China Israel’s example is being repeated here because Trump is considered the most pro-Israel President if he is not sparing Israel then what to talk about any other country. Therefore, Pakistan needs to be prepared for difficult questions and should not shy away to discuss it. Pakistan has a really strong case here. Now it depends on the team how they pursue it and how they present it as a mutually beneficial program.
