Modi’s strategic blunder will cost India heavily

Prime Minister Imran Khan has rightly said that Modi has made a strategic blunder, as what Pakistan could not do to bring Kashmir dispute into focus internationally, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi did it by revoking Article 370 that led to vociferous protests by Kashmiris. International media especially NYT, Amnesty International, UN Secretary General have expressed concerns over the situation in Indian Held Kashmir. The National Conference (NC), one of the main pro-India political parties in Indian-administered Kashmir, has moved the Supreme Court over the government’s decision to revoke the region’s special status. A petition filed by two NC leaders has challenged the government abrogating Article 370 of the Indian constitution that granted the Muslim-majority state its special status. In order to preempt the vociferous protests, India placed Jammu and Kashmir under curfew which is in its 12th day creating humanitarian crisis.
Meanwhile, UN Secretary General António Guterres called on all parties to refrain from taking steps that could affect the status of Jammu and Kashmir, which is recognised as a disputed territory by the United Nations and the Security Council. UNSC held a meeting on the situation on Kashmir after it revoked Article 370, and was briefed about the atrocities committed by India. In fact Article 370 was incorporated in Indian constitution so as to guarantee significant autonomy to the Muslim-majority state. Former chief minister of Indian Held Kashmir Mehbooba Mufti, who is under house arrest in the state capital Srinagar, said the decision betrayed Kashmir’s decision to align with India in 1947. She rued the flawed decision to give preference to India over Pakistan. P. Chidambaram, a senior leader in the opposition Congress Party described the decision as a catastrophic step and warned at the floor of Indian parliament that it could have serious consequences.
After 9/11, it appeared that the Kashmiri movement for self-determination had waned, as Indian and international analysts believed that local populace grew disillusioned with militant groups. However, in 2008 a new wave of non-violent protests emerged in Kashmir, led by the generation that had witnessed atrocities committed by Indian forces. This new generation of youth activists has played a critical role in redefining the Kashmiri movement for self-determination. Since the late 1980s, the pro-freedom leadership, comprising such as the Hurriyat Conference and the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), had dominated Kashmiri resistance against the Indian state. Despite differences of opinion on the efficacy of the pro-freedom parties today, many Kashmiri youth nevertheless acknowledge the important role the parties played in keeping the banner of struggle for right of self-determination aloft. Anyhow, Kashmiri youth is dominating the resistance movement now.
The reason was that for a long time, the Indian politicians and officials alike were loath even to accept the Kashmir dispute’s existence. Indian governments when under pressure from the events in IHK or more recently mediation offer by President Donald Trump, ruled out any third party mediation and said that all issues including Kashmir can be discussed bilaterally. In the past, when they expressed willingness to discuss Kashmir dispute, they did it with the caveat that Kashmir is non-negotiable integral. Then what Kashmir issue they want to discuss? Is it the Azad Kashmir destiny? Way back in 1994, India’s Parliament had adopted a resolution, formally laying claim to Azad Kashmir. In public they may not say too much, but in private they mince no words whatsoever in talking this position. Anyhow, the dispute is viewed the world over as a flashpoint that could potentially flare up into a nuclear armed conflict.
In Pakistan, some analysts, commentariat and political parties such as PPP and PML-N believed that military establishment takes decisions in the realm of foreign policy. But the fact of the matter is that Indian establishment along with political class, the media and intelligentsia has been working proactively, aggressively and vociferously to put Pakistan on the mat on every forum. Indian establishment has been unrelentingly squeezing the infamous Mumbai terrorist assault and trying to denigrate Pakistan and paint is as a state that sponsors terrorism. On the other hand, Islamabad hierarchy in the past kept cringing and genuflecting before the New Delhi court. Indeed, India is too big with a lot of allurements, attractions and incentives, and international community will in no event annoy India. But in case of war between two nuclear states, they are likely to lose their heavy investment in India.