ABDULLAH MUSTAFVI
It is being said with greater conviction that peace will be restored in war ridden Afghanistan as a result of ongoing dialogue between USA and Afghan Taliban. There is no problem for being a bit optimistic in believing such pleasant prediction but intermittent attacks in Afghanistan portray an entirely different picture of precarious situation on ground. Past track record of all stake holders do compel to expect unforeseen hurdles in the thorny path of peace. After Russian defeat and American pull out in 90s decade, no foreign force but Afghans fought with each other. This prolonged unrest got settled momentarily for a short period with Afghan Taliban in control of major part of the country. But then came 9/11 attacks, which damaged Afghanistan more than USA in the longer run. How Afghanistan would move forward from the point where it stands today? This question cannot be answered in a simple way! It is not easy to assess that which Afghan group or faction has hold over major part of the country. At the same time, it is almost proved that Afghan unity government has serious handicaps in maintaining proper control and running the state affairs in desired manner. On the contrary, strength of Afghan Taliban has been internationally recognized and ongoing dialogues are the undeniable proof of this fact. This reckoning of Afghan Taliban has started haunting the unity government which feels insecure and out of place despite being in power for all practical purposes. Tough and non-flexible stance of Taliban towards unity government has further added to the worries of Ashraf Ghani regime which rightly feels its political future in darkness. Despite rosy claims emerging from both sides about success of dialogues, no concrete agreement has surfaced yet. Tone and tanner of American spokesperson in a recent statement was extra ordinarily harsh and threatening. There was a hint about partial pull out of troops while leaving approximately 7 to 8 thousand troops behind. Famous threat of American president was also repeated which mentions refraining from horrible option of killing 10 million human beings merely to add a new feather in the cap of USA. Nature of this statement doesn’t require any interpretation to comprehend the arrogance on part of America. As per American spokesperson, dialogues are taking place in a state of sheer trust deficit and progress on any likely agreement would be closely monitored for proper implementation. Any further threat emerging to USA from Kabul will be dealt with a more powerful return of American forces. It is not difficult to extract from these statements that USA is aiming at a partial pull out without ensuring any peaceful arrangement between Taliban and unity government. In the absence of any nonviolent arrangement between these local stake holders, unrest is likely to increase as is evident with rise in attacks from both sides. So, Afghanistan is likely to remain disturbed, whether America pulls out or stays back with a lesser boot on ground. Internal rift and unrest will surely get multiplied with active existence of Daesh who recently claimed a major attack on a wedding gathering in Kabul. These are not the good omen for much talked about future of peace. Future governance formula has not yet been disclosed that how would this war ridden land be managed once Taliban are not ready to adopt a flexible stance about existing unity government. Otherwise, Afghans are not good in sharing the rule among each other. Under such unpredictable circumstances, Pakistan cannot lower the guards on western border where restoration peace still seems a far cry. After Afghanis it is Pakistan which desperately desires for peace in Afghanistan. Unrest and instability in neighborhood has deeply damaged Pakistan. Major efforts made in war against terror were focused against the terrorists or intruders who were part of anti-Pakistan proxies launched by India via Afghanistan. Despite struggling for restoration of peace in Afghanistan , at this stage, Pakistan should remain vigilant about latest happenings and future unfolding as the consequences would surely be difficult to face in a state of unpreparedness. Any deal between USA and Taliban , if fails in settling the disputes among Afghan groups , would result in more unrest and bloodshed. Interesting part of the game is still least explored and discussed that during last 17 years which elements or states had been backing up Afghan Taliban who managed to bring USA on kneels , as far as dialogue table is concerned. Local stake holders Russia and China do carry serious reservations about American prolonged presence in this region. Obviously , future of Afghanistan largely depends upon the relations and mutual settlement of conflicting interests among the major global players. Predicting about Afghan peace is not a simple affair.
