Atta Rasool Malik
The situation in Indian-controlled Kashmir is immensely tense. The beautiful Valley is on lockdown; complete Curfew since 5 August 2019. Indian armed forces have started conducting night raids, searching houses and picking up boys (potential stone throwers). Since ‘Kashmir’s autonomy was stripped two weeks ago. As Washington Post put it, eight million people have been cut off from the world and from each other.
A respected Indian social activist Shehla Rashid tweeted that in South’ Kashmir’s Shopian district, four young men were called into the Army camp and “interrogated” – a byword for torture. A loudspeaker Microphone was kept close to them so that the entire area could hear them scream, and be terrorized.
The backers of Bharatiya Janata Party are rejoicing over the abrogation of article 370 and justifying it stating abolition of special status will bring in massive financial investment from the mainland, India. They opine that lack of development is the reason for the continued unrest in the Valley. This claim is nonsense. The state of Jammu and Kashmir is economically more developed than many northern and eastern Indian States, including Narendra’ Modi’s very own Gujarat in the human development index.
Elimination of article 35A, the possibility of purchasing land by non-Kashmiris does not itself lead to increased investment. For economic development, one needs social peace and political stability. Even the hyper-nationalists in India would not like to invest in Kashmir in the foreseeable future due to the uprising.
At present, in Indian national domestic politics, there is not a single politician in Kashmir who is seen to belong to the mainstream. Three former chief ministers have been arrested without any formal charges against them, making a complete mockery of the law. The stage has been set for the escalation of Kashmir conflict. Modi’s decision has given a new lease of life to Two Nation Theory and the right of self-determination in Kashmir. Today, all Kashmiris are united, and it will lead to further militarization/ aggressive posturing against India.
Narendra Modi, aided and abetted by like-minded leaders, has re-defined Nehru’s notion of Indian greatness by framing it in terms of Hindu religion rather than Indian nationalism. It is radical repudiation, going back on the promises and legal, political and moral commitments of his predecessors. It is a new threat to all minorities hoping to live in secular India.
Mr Modi is probably emboldened by Donald Trump who had set precedence for violation of International law by recognizing Israel’s unilateral annexation of Palestinian’s East Jerusalem and Golan Heights of Syria.
Despite the ongoing tragedy in Kashmir, where Indian armed forces are detaining young boys and molesting girls amid a state-wide blackout, the UAE is set to honour ‘India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi on 24 August 2019 with the highest civilian award/honour, “Order of Zayed”
The Islamic world’s varied responses to multiple crises that target the rights of Muslims communities suggest not only impotence but also a growing willingness to sacrifice causes on the altar of perceived national interest and economic advantage.
Thanks to civilian and military leadership, Pakistan has skillfully avoided Indian traps. Pakistan has neither hurriedly attacked India by exploiting the current insurgency in Kashmir nor provided any excuse to India for attacking Pakistan. Even the dirty tricks of Indian likely false flag attacks in Kashmir have been exposed through international media. Pakistan is adeptly controlling sentiments of the people through national media and gradually mobilizing elements of its national power.
Currently, pro-India Kashmiri leadership is in Jail. Modi has brought every Kashmiri to the side of Pakistan. Pakistan has achieved unprecedented political capital in Kashmir. Today, every Kashmiri stands for freedom and Pakistan. The situation in Kashmir is escalating despite the Indian Curfew. Hence, Pakistan has snatched the initiative from the Indian govt. Modi’s mediocre leadership is frustrated and left with nothing but to miscalculation for which Pakistan is ready.
Pakistan is cautiously playing down the anger and emotions of its populace over Kashmir issue. Kashmir has its soft power, and Pakistan has also achieved substantial diplomatic support of international institutions. It is time Pakistan also engage the SAARC countries whose sovereignty rests on Pakistan’s resistance to India. If India overpowers Pakistan, the status of countries like Nepal, Maldives, Bhutan and Sri Lanka, in practical terms, would not be more than an Indian State. India can do nothing but to punish Pakistan economically, and Pakistan should be ready to counter it innovatively. If Pakistan is forced to undertake full War time mobilization, it must be synchronized with Chinese military mobilization on the actual line of control, Doklam, Sikkim areas. China, first time, has become a party to the conflict as Indians have laid claims on its territory in the north. It should not be difficult for Pakistan to convince China, as Chinese understands their interests in a far bigger timeline than Pakistan.
India has completely closed the doors of dialogues with Pakistan or even with local Kashmiri leadership. The writing on the wall has become apparent. There are two logical outcomes appear to be on the horizon in Kashmiri context. First, the third-party mediation becomes successful, article 370 restored and Kashmir freedom struggle achieves a new milestone under fresh UN resolutions, Second; brutal Indian state oppression in Kashmir like genocide in Gujrat, leading to violent uprising/insurgency. To divert the attention and to pass on the blame to Pakistan, India may attempt to invade Pakistani territory. In current scenario first possibility looks bleak and therefore the second one is more likely. Nomenclature.
