Hassan Kamal
It was very much expected that Taliban would be taking advantage of deteriorating failing Afghan security apparatus and Taliban’s growing influence and successes in Afghanistan during any negotiating process, which became true recently as Taliban apparently backed out from the ongoing peace process. Among other significant reasons, one could be traced back from the brief capture of Kunduz by Taliban, which ignited enormous impact on the determination of Afghan Security Forces, which glaringly identified the lack of required coordination and the inbuilt weaknesses in the Afghan security apparatus. Besides, the halfhearted will to fight against the Taliban by Afghan security forces remained the main issues, direly needed to be resolved by the Afghan government. Afghan security forces have not yet been able to independently take over the security responsibility. It remind us of an old TV programme, based on the story of an animal researcher of some cheetah breed, kept and managed in man made captivity and tamed for a long time. Once, the cheetah attained the age of adulthood, they tried to rehabilitate the cheetah back into the jungle. For said purpose, some training stuff was introduced by placing real prey in different pattern of exercises and approaches to enhance the hunting capability of Cheetah, but overall the cheetah failed to adopt the real sense of attacking on the prey, because in the real world or jungle the preys are generally not found tied to ropes or affixed with surroundings. Hence, in one incident the said cheetah died because of a severe hit by a wild big buffalo, breaking his ribs, the cheetah died. So, the lesson of the episode for tamed cheetahs could be, to avoid hunting even buffalos in the real world. Same is the case with the hurriedly and half hearted trained Afghan forces, who are receiving sever blows by the determined Taliban.
Presently, Taliban may not be able to gain the significant areas in Afghanistan, but their capability to strike any where and any one in Afghanistan is the real fear. Experts are of the opinion that Taliban would not be able to exploit the fear factor any more for a long period due to the intra rifts over the leadership issue. The resolve of the Afghan government and the international and regional countries to tackle the menace of terrorism, could play important role, if a unified and constant, result oriented pressure is maintained over the negative elements and peace spoilers. Earlier, in media reports, it covered that Afghan Taliban’s office in Qatar indicated their persistence that all foreign troops in the US led coalition must leave Afghanistan before they would join any direct peace talks with the Afghan government in Kabul, Mohammad Naim, the official spokesman for the Taliban’s political office in Qatar, was referred for the said statement. The Quadrilateral Coordination Group, working towards facilitating the direct talks of the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban, including , Pakistan, China, and the United States, probably ignored the announcement of the Taliban mouthpiece in Qatar, Mohammad Naim, who categorically revealed on 23 February16 that the Taliban’s Qatar office was “unaware of plans for talks” and that it had not changed its preconditions for joining the peace process, which he had earlier announced at a research center in Doha during last week of January 2016. The Taliban has maintained the unflinching demand that it would not join talks with the Afghan government in Kabul until all foreign troops in the US led coalition leave Afghanistan. At the Doha conference, Taliban representatives said in a statement “the invaders should leave the country and give the Afghan people opportunity to determine their fate themselves.” Other Taliban demands announced in Doha in January; included official recognition of the Taliban’s political office in Qatar, the removal of the Taliban from a United Nations terrorist blacklist, a halt to the “arrest and elimination” of Taliban fighters, and the release of Taliban inmates from prisons. The Taliban demands also included an end to what its Qatar office called “poisonous propaganda” against the Taliban. The Afghan government said in late January that it could not accept the Taliban’s preconditions for the resumption of the stalled peace talks. Kabul said negotiations should move forward only in line with the decisions of the Quadrilateral Coordination Group. Afghanistan’s High Peace Council had urged the Taliban to avoid setting preconditions, saying the group should raise their issues at the negotiating table. However, the very same conditions have been recently set by Taliban, which could further complicate the peace process.
Earlier, the High Peace Council also warned that there would be no breakthrough in the peace process unless there are face-to-face talks between government negotiators and Afghan Taliban representatives. A power struggle between rival Taliban factions emerged after the belated death revelation of Mullah Omer, within the rival field commanders expressing loyalty to different leaders. The Taliban’s Qatar office claimed that it is the only “authorized and responsible entity” that can represent Afghanistan’s Taliban at peace talks. Some analyst narrates that no one longer be able to facilitate a unified Taliban movement to the negotiating table, because of intense role played by the spoilers of the peace and prosperity in Afghanistan. Another dimension of the problem is that the Taliban have splintered, and factions affiliated with ISIS have emerged to compete with groups tied to Al Qaeda, still some Taliban leaders would rather follow an independent course. Experts believe that this new agenda of ISIS is the most lethal and dangerous agenda in the region, which would even fume the originator to its extinction. Hence the whole game is not about the future of Afghanistan and Central Asia. It is all about the US and its allies clinging to Afghanistan for having a key foothold in the region, and wanting to find any pretext to maintain their presence to contain China and Russia. In such scenario, which was even elaborated by former Afghan President Hamid Karzai and the momentous emergence of ISIS, both Pakistan and Afghanistan must weave a symbiotic relation for ensuring peace and stability in the region and beyond. The deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan and the analogous but inadequate and at times the appalling surrenders by the Afghan security forces in the face of Taliban’s increased subversive activities have frustrated the entire Afghan government. The Afghan security forces, as earlier predicted by the western security experts, have failed to tackle the growing Taliban attacks. The over all Law and order situation in the country coupled with the governance, drugs trafficking, Human right abuses and corruption are the main issues yet to be addressed by Afghan government. Although the increased activities of Taliban during the so called fighting season is not a new phenomena, it was very much existent during the bulged presence of foreign troops. Even the US / NATO forces had failed to control and secure the small area of Kabul to protect from the reach of Taliban activities including bomb blasts and suicide attacks. The core question, in the back drop of current security situation in Afghanistan and the corresponding failures of Afghan security forces, remains the progress on the future of the ongoing peace talks. We all must pray for the positive and peaceful resolution of the prevailing conflicts for the peace and prosperity.
