Mubarak Baloch
Afghanistan has been in trouble since last few decades. Two super powers wrestled for their respective supremacy messing up everything in the country as the ensuing infighting and internecine power struggle amongst erstwhile Mujahideen factions had played mayhem in the country. Situation worsened when countries with vested interests extended their abetment to war-lords. This practice by and large is still in vogue. National Unity Government (NUG) in Afghanistan is struggling hard to defang Taliban and strengthen the government. President Ashraf Ghani could not woo Taliban in his fold but he has several times exhibited his indignation against Pakistan for not making Taliban agree over a peace deal. Though Pakistan detained Taliban elements and even set free Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar at Kabul’s bidding to facilitate peace talks. Mr Ghani unfortunately sees his calculus as perfect and infallible. Pakistan expressed its inability for herding over Taliban to Mr. Ghani citing that rag-tag militia is not under its control or subservient to it.
On the other hand, Afghanistan has already got closer to Pakistan’s adversary namely India. President Ghani has recently echoed Indian sentiments by boycotting SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) summit. Besides, Pakistan has grouse that Afghan government has accorded connivance to Indian activities carried out in Afghanistan soil against Pakistan. Rather, Kabul has gradually shifted to a policy dragging both Pakistan and India to fight one another using Afghan soil. Any hostile situation between Pakistan and India would shoot down efforts for peace in Afghanistan.
Recently, President Ashraf Ghani has wooed Gulbadin Hekmatyar President of Hizb-e-Islam outfit who reached an agreement with NUG. Hekmatyar had been one time Jehadi leader against then Soviet Union in Afghanistan. He later became Prime Minister of the country but his militant wing had badly battered Kabul in power struggle against his political rival (late) Professor Burhanudin Rabbani. Whether decision of Gulbandin Hekmatyar’s agreement with Kabul is going to strengthen Ghani’s government and Taliban armed struggle would get slackened is a difficult question. Analysts believe that Gulbandin Hekmatyar’s party notables had already joined Afghan National Unity Government and his militant wing almost stands dissipated. Hekmatyar’s one close aide named Engineer Muhammad Khan is one of the dupties of Dr. Abdullah Abdullah. His followers putting up in Shamshatu refugee camp in KPK (Pakistan) would also repatriate. Hekmatyar in his video recorded message played on the occasion of ‘Agreement’ signing ceremony; held couple of weeks back in Kabul, lambasted Afghan government with clear insinuation for being hard on him and on his party. He finally agreed to the presence of foreign forces in Afghanistan soil. His name would now be removed from UN list declaring enlisted people as terrorists, and sanctions on his party would also be lifted.
A perception is that Gulbadin Hekmatyar’s joining of Afghan government is likely to bring some solace for by Mr. Ghani. Though Taliban forays would not get slackened as their armed struggle was not joint with Hekmatyar’s. Hekmatyar as a coalition partner is likely to face opposition from Ghani’s other coalition partners like Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, Rashid Dostam and others. Being not satisfied he may feel disenchanted and quit Ghani led government. His party activists are quite motivated and experienced in guerilla warfare though presently inactive. Rank and file of Hizb-e-Islami if not looked after by NUG in terms of rehabilitation in townships, and not respectfully treated etc, may raise issues. In this scenario Hekmatya’s loyalists may join the forces like Taliban or other outfits against the Government. There is strong belief that Hekmatyar would be a reluctant component of Ghani led administration and his followers are unlikely to partake in a campaign against Taliban. On the other hand, Taliban are either silent or exhibited a negligible reaction towards Hekmtyar’s decision. Taliban leadership understands that Hizb-e-Islami has no contribution whatsoever in the ongoing armed struggle against unity government. As for Pakistan, Gulbadin Hekmatyar has been very close to Islamabad particularly during cold war era. Afterwards he remained stuck up in power struggle and his armed wing continued struggle to assert for its pie in the government. His followers in Shamshatu camp in KPK enjoyed due hospitality. Iran is also equally close to him. Hekmatyar withdrew to Iran where he stayed for long after Bonn Conference in December 2001 where he was not invited. While considering Pakistan’s closeness with America he preferred Iran over Pakistan to stay. Turmoil in Afghanistan is unlikely to end unless USA, neighboring and regional countries review their conflicting stakes in Afghanistan.
