Muhammad Saeed
Unrelenting regional enmity between Pakistan and India, mutated under an environment where the US has shifted its South East Asia interests from its age old partner Pakistan, has allowed India to become a significant American partner in Asia rebalancing paradigm. This swing, has not only facilitated India to openly foster closer relationship with Israel and Afghanistan but has left no other option for Pakistan to decide breaking off as a non-NATO ally without further delay and look for even closer ties with Russia and China because it is bringing a phenomenal economic transformation in Pakistan through CPEC projects which are spread over 25-30 years.
America’s relative successful efforts to tame Iran, in terms of nuclear truce, has considerably lowered nuclear threat to Israel too while India in the process of disengaging with its long term ally Russia, has further solidified its strategic partnership with the US, Israel and Iran which is treading cautiously with Pakistan especially on several economic and political accounts to include Pakistan’s earnest relationship with KSA. In this backdrop Pakistan must continue to opt for harnessing opportunities of engaging Russia and Central Asian States that have their own factors of strategic commitment and yearnings including rivalry and friendship down the history with the US, India, China and Pakistan. Other factors that have made political, economic and security challenges imperative for Pakistan include increased China-Russia tension with the US in the face of the US scheming in the Middle East and elsewhere as well as efforts, particularly through proxies like India, to create redoubtable hurdles for China’s access to Gwadar in order to immobilize CPEC initiatives through sabotage and terrorist activities in Balochistan.
American led allies’ failure to bring peace and stability into Afghanistan and consequent rise of Taliban have once again made entire strategic environment further complicated. The latest point of acute friction between India and Pakistan is seemingly not inextinguishable in near future due to apathy of the global powers and the UN which perpetually disregarding popular opposition to Indian rule in Kashmir as well as ongoing human rights violations and more so allowing the chances of treading towards a nuclear stand off in this region. Indian as well as US hawks might be looking at the situation and saying, if we don’t take some risks now, to sustain destabilization in Pakistan, China and Afghanistan, there’s a danger that with CPEC success, the China’s position in South Asia might become unassailable. Therefore, the Indian and American temptation may prove irresistible to nightmare the CPEC, Pakistan and China by choreographing an intractable security quagmire in Balochistan, KPK, GB and elsewhere. In which case, the Pakistan military’s responses either open or clandestine, would be great sources of propagation and exploitation for India and the US especially labeling the counter actions as terrorism or state terrorism while presenting certain radical elements as Pakistan military’s veritable arm. This tested pulsation has so far proved successful and accepted as a reality at the world arena. In this situation Pakistan’s national security policy, regrettably not yet visible except kinetic actions, needs to be articulated with national inclusiveness based on strengthening economy to avoid design of making our vulnerabilities as asset by the global powers through its newly adopted proxy, India. Further delay will otherwise enable a cycle of outrage and retaliation that will continue to keep the region as well as CPEC on a knife-edge.
