Mohammad Jamil
Nepal Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is already in China to participate in the annual Boao Forum for Asia conference. When these lines go to the press, Nepal’s prime minister is set to throw his support behind Beijing’s initiative to build a modern-day Silk Road across Asia, in a move that could upset traditional regional powerhouse India. Beijing is poised to increase its influence in Nepal, which serves as a natural buffer between China and India. China has invested in hospitals, roads, hydropower projects and airports in Nepal, is keen to include it in President Xi Jinping’s flagship “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) initiative to link Asia with Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Dahal had received an invitation to address the conference that is themed “Globalization and Free Trade – Asian Perspectives”. Nepal has been dependent on India, through which around 65% of its trade passes.
Its crucial dependency on India was underscored in 2015 when protesters from the Madhesi ethnic community – claiming that Nepal’s constitution discriminated against them – blocked key checkpoints and prevented the passage of essential goods from India for nearly five months. Nepal had accused the Indian government of sympathizing with the Madhesi protest and abetting the blockade, which resulted in a shortage of fuel, medicines and other vital supplies that nearly crippled the country. India has consistently denied the claim, but it had criticized the Nepalese constitution which was blatant interference in internal affairs of neighboring country. Nepal’s adoption of a new federal, democratic and secular constitution had angered India, as if Nepal was not a sovereign country but India’s vassal state. Though India claims to be a secular state, but with Hindu revivalist Narendra Modi and other BJP leaders at the helm want Hindutva ideology to prevail.
The Constituent Assembly of Nepal had passed the Constitution on 20th September 2015 with 90% members voting in favour. Out of Nepal’s 598-strong Constituent Assembly only 66 members from Madeshi and Tharu minorities abstained from voting in protest. Nepal’s ruling party and its allies had staged anti-India protests on completion of 100 Days of Indian blockade, which includes ban on Indian news channels by Nepal’s cable operators. Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists (CPN-M) had then held a rally in Kathmandu in which it called for ban on these channels. In November, thousands of students waved banners and chanted slogans in Nepal’s capital, Kathmandu to protest against the border blockade. Most of the Indian channels blocked by cable operators were Hindi news channels besides a couple of English news channels including NDTV, ABP News, Times Now, Aaj Tak etc. For weeks, the Madhesis had blocked the main southern border crossing with India.
India, which has close cultural ties with the Madhesis, had restricted supplies to Nepal, which relied on it for most of its fuel. Nepal accused India of imposing an “undeclared blockade”, which India denied. Shortages meant there was no fuel for private cars, and the Nepalese authorities had to ration petrol for taxis and buses. Just a couple of days before Nepal formally adopted the new constitution, India’s Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar was sent to Kathmandu at the behest of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who had held discussions with Nepal’s president and prime minister and leaders of all the major political parties. He had pressurized the Nepalese government to delay the adoption of the constitution and hold discussions with political groups opposed to it. A statement issued by Indian foreign ministry had said: “We are concerned that the situation in several parts of the country bordering India continues to be violent.”
The statement urged that issues on which there were differences should be resolved through dialogue in an atmosphere free from violence and intimidation. India had taken the position that communities living in the Terai, especially the Madeshis (said to be of Indian origin) and the Tharu ethnic minorities, had expressed concern that the proposed boundaries of the new provinces could lead to their political marginalization. But this was gross interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign country. India’s behavior with its neighboring countries has been contrary to the norms of peaceful co-existence. Instead of recognizing their sovereignty and equal status, India wishes a pliant behavior on the part of its neighbors, and demands of them to act according to its dictates. India expects of its neighbors to formulate their external, internal and even defence policies according to its will and wishes.
India has been interfering in Nepal for decades, and is responsible for chaos, confusion and turmoil in Nepal. Indian leaders believed that KP Oli and Dahal had received strong support either from China or from the western countries to ignore India’s concerns. Then prime minister of Nepal KP Oli had met Indian envoy Ranjit Rae, he said: “You people are trying to oust me.” Ranjit Rae had invited Madheshi leaders for lunch during which informed them about Oli’s remarks. UCPNM Chairperson Dahal had received a similar message from Delhi that the Oli-led government will not last for a long time. They appeared to have buckled under Indian pressure at that time, and reportedly decided to address the Indian concerns. Oli-Dahal had sent a new message to New Delhi about moving the constitution amendment bill in the parliament.
It is an open secret that the Madhesh unrest was planned and sponsored by India, and wished to advance its agenda through Madheshis and other minorities. Nepali leaders have been saying that they will never surrender to Delhi but finally they decided to surrender to New Delhi. They should not have promised India’s Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar that amendment could be made after discussions with the opposition. Anyhow, Nepali Prime Minister Dahal’s visit to China is significant, as it will boost Dahal’s confidence which would help resist India’s pressures. Other countries of the region would also feel emboldened that China has decided to play its role in countries having border with it, which will be a great setback to India.
