The Island Online
The Chairman of Bank of Ceylon has said that we may get bailout foreign aid in the fourth quarter of this year, and that if we do not get it by then we may cease to exist as a country (The Island 03.08. 2022)
This ominous warning from a person who knows what he is talking about must open the eyes of those who are agitating and planning to topple governments, chase away presidents and prime ministers, occupy the President’s and the Prime Minister’s residences, change the system and want an election immediately. Such activity would cause instability of the government and a delay in the negotiations for a bailout. We can exist only if somebody gives us some dollars, to tide over these difficult times, until our economy can stand on its own. Fourth quarter of the year starts in October, could we exist until then? Not if these revolutionary ideas are put into practice. Economic considerations must take precedence over political issues at this juncture.
If these people, whoever they are, want to have monthly revolutions what could happen to the country? Haven’t we had enough revolutions, and what good have they done for the country or its youth, apart from getting murdered by both sides? We had a president who was unpopular in the eyes of many, and he was removed. Now we have a president who was not elected by the people, and some people want to get rid of him. What is the guarantee that the same fate would not befall the president who replaces the present one, and the monthly revolutions would not continue until these revolutionaries take over the government? They almost did that, didn’t they, when they attacked the parliament.
The protesters must realise that nobody could have a magic formula to obtain foreign exchange in large amounts in a short time, when there is a global economic crisis. The President and the Central Bank Governor have explained this matter time and again. People must be patient at least until the negotiations for foreign aid are completed and we get some dollars. There is no point asking for quick solutions. The aid givers must convince themselves that we may have the ability to pay back the loans we would be taking. Our friends like China, India, and Japan have their own problems in the present global economic contraction, and may not be able to contribute as they otherwise would have done. Only hope may be the IMF, though their conditions could cause irreparable damage in the long run. But a sinking man cannot be selective in grabbing a life line.
The people must be peaceful and law abiding, and all foreign exchange earning activities – like the apparel and plantation industries, tourism and foreign remittance must function without hindrance. The new administration is trying to enforce law and order, without which none of the above activities could run to their best ability under the trying conditions. The President has spoken at the inauguration of the parliament, and it appears he is sincere and means business. He will not clamp down on peaceful demonstrations, but would not allow violence for that could mean, as the Chairman BOC has warned, the end of the road for Sri Lanka.
Foreign exchange earning capacity should not be allowed to be disrupted, and every effort must be made to improve the balance of payment, in which regard there is heartening news that this has improved in the last month compared to the previous. Such good things are happening now and nothing should be done to jeopardise it. This country, in irreparable bankruptcy and political turmoil, may be annexed by some big power who are waiting in the horizon for such an opportunity.
The present government, though not ideal from the point of view of democracy, has a vestige of stability and law and order, and appears to be trying to solve the economic problem. If ideal democracy is to be restored an election has to be held. Nobody in his right mind would recommend an election at this time. Apart from the fact that the country has no money to hold an election, it would disrupt the negotiating process for foreign exchange, and cause a further delay which the country could ill afford.
Though nobody has said what exactly they want when they ask for “a system change”, going by the colour of their politics and their attempt to occupy the official residences of the President and the Prime Minister, and attempt to march on the Parliament, what they want obviously is to capture state power. Would such an outcome be endorsed by the people? Would that be what the people want? Is that what they wanted when they joined the protest march in their thousands? Would they join and march again in their thousands to install these militant groups, whoever they are, in state power?
The people got on to the streets on 09 July for they believed all their problems were due to the former president’s blunders. They were not planning to enable any revolutionary to capture power. They had been denied their fertiliser, not once but for two seasons, and fuel, gas, kerosene, medicine, and all other essentials were not available. The cost of living was skyrocketing. People were at their tether’s end.
Now the situation has somewhat improved. Fertiliser has been made available, and the minister of agriculture says not to import rice as there is sufficient stocks. The QR system appears to have eased the problem of fuel queues. Cooking gas is available. Further, the people may have vented their pent-up anger on the former president by getting rid of him. Now they may not have the imperative urge to get on to the streets and go after another president. They may also be privy to the knowledge that they could be acting like the cat’s paw in someone else’s power game. They have given a minimum of votes when some of these revolutionaries had contested the elections in the past. Surely the people don’t want to be part of a process aimed at installing them in power, by extra parliamentary methods.
There is another dimension that the people will have to be vigilant about. The US Ambassador seems to be going beyond her diplomatic mandate in interfering in the recent developments in Sri Lanka. She had not allowed the former president to enforce law and order, when it was clearly breached by the forceful occupation of the Presidential Secretariat, and she may have been indirectly responsible for the regime change. Now she is using the same tactics against the present president. She has praised the protesters, notwithstanding their violent actions. Forceful occupation of government buildings is not peaceful assembly. The US was earlier using the LTTE as their tool to keep this country destabilised. As the LTTE is defunct now, they may have found another cat’s paw in the hapless misguided protesting violent youth.
