Syeda Mazhar
Pakistan’s biggest threat is not militancy – it is the lack of water. Water pollution, discharge of effluents and unsafe drinking water are factors among others that pose a threat to human wellbeing as well as Pakistan’s ecosystem.
An arid country, Pakistan depends heavily on annual glacier melts and monsoon rains. Water flowing down from these sources come as rivers and out to the sea. En route, it is also seeped into the ground, where water-bearing rocks or aquifers absorb and store this water. Countless times we have come across an image of a woman carrying water on her head from a far away source which signifies that while most don’t even have water to drink, others waste it in vast quantities.
According to the data released by the World Resources Institute (WRI), which defines water stress as the ratio between total water withdrawals and available renewable surface water at the sub-catchment level, Pakistan is predicted to be the most water stressed country in the region by the year 2040. Out of the three sectors identified by the report, agriculture will be the one most affected, which will only trigger and amplify the self-perpetuating cycle, down spiraling and adversely affecting the economy of Pakistan.
Despite floods and water and electricity shortages in recent years, which have come at great human and financial cost, Pakistan has failed to attach sufficient importance to water scarcity and has been fooling around with what is a great asset to the economy. On the contrary, the water stress situation is likely to improve in our neighboring country, India. The report predicts that water stress faced by Indians is likely to drop from 3.70 in 2020 to 3.61 by 2040.
But, how?
For many years now, the Indus Water Treaty has been called into question by both the countries while not being commended for surviving the highs and lows of the tumultuous relationship between Pakistan and India. It has become mandatory that the Treaty needs to be revisited due to the evolution of circumstances, both natural and territorial.
The water dividing treaty has repeatedly continued to hinder cooperation from the Indian side from where the rivers emerge. The Baglihar and Kishanganga disputes serve to highlight the sever lack of coordination and trust between the two states, and the failure of International arbitration to appease both sides. Although real politics do not allow any sort of cooperation to exist at all, the fact that both countries are facing an acute water shortage. The scarcity will only continue to worsen by the fact that India will never look beyond its military strategic interests and cooperate in the form of information sharing, adding neutral experts into the commission or even undertaking joint ventures and a renewed treaty, with a focus on sharing the waters. Not that it matters anyway.
While Pakistan’s Mangla and Tarbela dams capacity keeps diminishing and, the construction of Kalabaagh damn faces opposition from the two provinces, concurrently, India has raced ahead of Pakistan, constructing numerous small and large dams for water storage and namely for the purpose of electricity generation.
Last September, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs informed the National Assembly that India is working on four hydropower projects, totaling a capacity of 1,716 megawatts (MW) on the Jhelum, Chenab and Indus rivers to meet its ever-growing energy demands. The projects include the Ratle Hydroelectric Plant (48MW), Miyar (120MW), Lower Kalnai (48MW) and PakulDul (1,500MW). Pakistan has objected to the construction of these dams in violation the treaty. Other violations from the Indian side included insufficient design criteria in the Baglihar and Kishangangacases, constructing projects without informing Pakistan in Chutak, and failing to abide by operational provisions in the case of the Baglihar dam. Raising concerns over the design of Kishanganga Dam on the Indian side of Kashmir, however, the International Court of Arbitration rejected Pakistan’s objections and maintained India’s right to divert water from the Kishanganga River to generate power. What is disturbing is that that Kishanganga Damn allows India to produce nearly 300MW of power, but it adversely affects the generation capacity of Pakistan’s 969MW Jhelum hydroelectric project by about 13%. Pakistan cannot even appeal to any authority after losing the International arbitration over the Kishanganga River.
India is currently in the process of completing 33 new projects on the Pakistani waters that can effectively control the quantity as well as the timings of water flowing into Pakistan. This explains the massive floods that have plagued Pakistan over the previous years, with over 20 million people suffering from the effects according to the United Nations. According to the Pakistani government: “India has built dams to secure itself and is releasing water into Pakistan’s rivers as part of its design to devastate Pakistan, using water as a weapon.”
Given that the Indian side has violated the Treaty more than 10 times since 1960, Pakistan appears to have ample grounds to object. Not only that, India has passed on its agenda to Afghanistan with the aim to crush Pakistan from both the sides. Last week India’s Modi inaugurated $290 million hydroelectric dam in Afghanistan with the promise, “India will not forget you or turn away” to Afghanistan.
It is claimed that the “Indians and the afghans dreamt of this project in the 1970s”. To be able to use water as a weapon to kill Pakistanis with water or without has been on their agenda for since Pakistan came into being. Pakistan may be fully capable of fighting off militancy and external threats but they are not even close to protect themselves against water terrorism due to their lack of foresight and planning.
