Washington Post
Tonio Andrade
China is increasingly asserting itself as a great power, and nowhere is its rise more likely to lead to war than in the South China Sea. This vital seaway not only is filled with shipping lanes, but also contains rich fishing grounds and oil and gas deposits, and China claims vast swaths of it. Neighboring countries have reacted angrily to its assertions, and China has responded by ratcheting up air and naval patrols and building artificial islands with airstrips and barracks.
These tensions are likely only to increase in the wake ofthe Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling Tuesdayundermining China’s claims and bolstering those of the Philippines, one of the closest U.S. allies in the region. China has rejected the ruling; its state-controlled media outlets call the court a “law-abusing tribunal.” The United States, for its part, is determined to enforce the ruling andhas stepped up naval patrols in the region in anticipation of China’s negative reaction.
This is a dangerous game. China is more prepared for a confrontation than Western experts may expect. We are, quite literally, in perilous waters. U.S. leaders would do well to understand China’s military past, a history far more warlike and bellicose than has long been assumed.
Chinese leaders have often proclaimed that their history is unusually pacific. As former Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying stated, “China has never waged a war of aggression to occupy an inch of land of other countries.” China’s president, Xi Jinping, himself has said that “We Chinese love peace. No matter how much stronger it may become, China will never seek hegemony or expansion.”
Yet China’s history is in fact filled with warfare – some of it aggressive. As Xi himself well knows, China’s last two imperial dynasties undertook massive wars of expansion. In the early 1400s, the Ming dynasty launched huge expeditions, marching hundreds of thousands of troops into Mongolia and Vietnam, even as it sent gargantuan fleets throughout the maritime world. Starting in the early 1700s, its successor, the Qing dynasty, also sent huge pacification forces into lands claimed by other states. In both cases, military expansion made China the unquestioned hegemon of the Eastern Hemisphere.
What’s intriguing is that the timing of these bouts of expansive warfare was similar: They each occurred about 40 or 50 years after the dynasty was founded, after domestic control had been consolidated. And why did the Ming and Qing dynasties engage in such expansion after achieving domestic consolidation? In a word, security. In each case, leaders justified their military action with reference to China’s historic vulnerability. Only by achieving unquestioned preeminence in its hemisphere – or, as Chinese leaders put it, in the earthly realm – could China guarantee safety and security for its people. Expansion was meant to foster peace.
Today, China finds itself in a similar historical position. After a difficult 20th century, filled with foreign invasion, civil war and destabilizing leadership struggles, it is strong and stable, having enjoyed more than four decades of rapid economic growth. But much like their imperial forebears, Chinese leaders today are worried about China’s security. The greatest perceived threat is posed by the United States, whose bases in the western Pacific are seen as a direct challenge. Equally worrisome is the fact that the United States has close alliances with countries bordering the China Sea – Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines. Will China attempt to use its new military power to assert its claims in the China Sea?
There is reason for hope that it won’t come to that. The United States does not represent the same sort of imminent threat that China faced in its imperial period. And so far, Xi has been careful to avoid direct confrontation. But Beijing’s policies and rhetoric also suggest that we cannot be complacent about Chinese power or China’s willingness to use it. China’s leaders certainly feel that they cannot allow the United States to thwart their ambitions in the region; indeed, they see their actions not as assertive but as defensive. Equally troubling, they have spoken so clearly and unequivocally about their claims to these waters that they may feel bound by their own words to prepare for a military response. Conflict, although unlikely, is increasingly possible. All it would take is one missed communication, one slightly misjudged fly-by.
Chinese history sometimes seems to move in cycles, as successive dynasties rise, expand, flourish and die. With luck and caution, we may avoid an aggressive and expansionist cycle this time around, but Western leaders must combine respect for international legal structures with an awareness of China’s need for security within its sphere of influence. China’s leaders, for their part, must understand that their desire to expand China’s sphere of influence is best achieved peacefully. International law can work in their favor as well.
War between the world’s two great powers is a terrifying prospect. Let’s hope leaders on both sides communicate clearly and act wisely.
