Akram Iqbal
There are growing concerns among the international and regional countries over the inability of the Afghan National Security Forces to shoulder the most expected responsibility of the fragile security situation in the country. In the wake of the deteriorating security situation, despite of the constant hefty aid packages, the overall poor performances of Afghan security forces may have led Afghanistan in gaining the required material support by the international community, but in long run, Afghan forces would be needing performance to show and entice the international community for further assistance. Besides, in case of their constant failures, there would be no reason and rationale for the committed countries to support Afghanistan for an indefinite period. The aid and equipment offered by the donor countries by pledging their sweat and blood earned billions of dollars; have criminally been spilled and wasted by the Afghan governments due to their mismanagement, corruption, lack of political will and issues related to good governance.
Another disheartening factor of deteriorating security situation of Afghanistan is the high level of desertions in Afghan Armed forces, which is not necessarily increasing but it’s not decreasing either which means a high level of turnover. Besides, the casualties of armed forces as well as civilians are the most worrying thing because; in the long run it is going to have a negative impact on morale and possibly at some point in the future, recruitment in Afghan Armed Forces. It is pertinent to mention here that it was December 2014, when the International Security Assistance Force ended its combat role in Afghanistan; the Afghan forces had initially performed reasonably well in encounters with the Taliban. However, it failed spectacularly in defending the Kunduz. Some seven thousands security personnel were not able to hold the city against an assault by a few hundred Taliban fighters. It displayed the actual level of competence and enormous Afghan forces weakness of fighting in urban territories, mostly dominated or greatly influenced by the Taliban.
Different security related reports have indicated a substantial increase in casualties among the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces during 2015 as well as this year. Critical shortcomings have continued to hamper the security forces in effectively addressing the threat posed by anti – government elements, including insufficient recruitment, high attrition rates and insufficient logistics, planning, air support and coordination. It was surfaced that the Afghan National Army has also been experiencing serious problems in recruitment of the personnel for the fighting forces, who are most exposed in the fighting with the insurgent and terrorists. Resultantly, it has caused delayed responses or reinforcement during the event of any major attacks, as was witnessed during the capture of Kunduz by the Afghan Taliban. Same issue was vocally criticized by a serving Afghan General Murad, who was leading the Afghan Forces during the fall of Kunduz episode. It even exposed a range of weaknesses in logistical capabilities, planning, procurement, equipment maintenance and administration of the Afghan armed forces. The resulting inconsistency is the toothless and less mobile Afghan force vs the heartless and fierce insurgents. The security situation in Afghanistan has fallen to the level that even the Afghan forces have failed to maintain their control of the main highways linking major and important cities of the country. Security experts have analyzed that the tactical performance of the Afghan forces in the midst of battle is more difficult to evaluate because reliable information is hard to be extracted and it is generally viewed that there is a very serious leadership problem as the appointments to senior positions are still heavily influenced by political interference resulting in the appointment of incompetent and coward commanders. Afghan government must take timely and appropriate decision and actions to address the related problems.
Afghan president Ashraf Ghani, who won Afghanistan’s disputed presidential election decisively with 55 percent of the vote, has not been able to address the issues related to security matters of the country. Another challenging factor for the security situation of Afghanistan is the eruption of more competition between the Taliban and elements of the Islamic State in Afghanistan. Surprisingly the Islamic State has been able to capture some small areas primarily in eastern Afghanistan, while also seeking to recruit fighters for the Islamic State’s efforts to expand its ‘caliphate’ based in parts of Iraq and Syria.
During January 26, 2015, Abu Muhammed al-Adnani, Islamic State’s chief spokesperson, released an audio statement in which he declared the establishment of Wilayat Khorasan, a branch of the group encompassing Afghanistan, Pakistan and other nearby lands, since then, Wilayat Khorasan has pursued a campaign of expansion and consolidation in the region, with most of its activity centering in eastern and southeastern Afghanistan. The group, however, has experienced several setbacks on the battlefield that have raised questions about the group’s ability to hold the ground and staying in the power and future prospects in Afghanistan. Despite its losses in Zabul and Nangarhar, Wilayat Khorasan remained active in Afghanistan. It was earlier estimated that there were approximately 7,000-8,500 Islamic State members in Afghanistan, including about 1,000 fighters still in Nangarhar .The group has already demonstrated their ability to carry out terrorist attacks in urban areas, including Nangarhar’s capital of Jalalabad. However, Wilayat Khorasan’s continuous defeats made it clearer that the Taliban poses a serious obstacle to the Islamic State’s expansion in Afghanistan. Earlier, the Taliban expanded their territorial reach in 2015, temporarily capturing 24 district centres in the north ( Badakhshan, Baghlan, Faryab, Jawzjan, Kunduz, Sari Pul and Takhar provinces), in the west ( Badghis and Farah provinces), in the east ( Nuristan Province) and in the south ( Helmand and Kandahar provinces), in addition to temporarily seizing the provincial capital of Kunduz. Even though most district centres were quickly retaken by Afghan government forces with the help of foreign forces, while several remained under Taliban control for weeks, including in Faryab, Helmand, Kunduz, Sari Pul and Takhar provinces. Besides, the recent captures of important areas by Taliban are further motivating them to continue their pursuits and dictate and impose their demands on Afghan government.
The evolved security dynamics in Afghanistan, which has led to increase the economic and military aids by different regional and extra regional countries has dictated Afghanistan to remain dependent by following and serving the foreign national interests before taking into account her own interests. According to the reports, Afghan Security Forces would receive $3 billion a year from 2018 through 2020.It was earlier revealed by the US Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Olson that the United States planned to ask Congress for about $1 billion a year in development and economic assistance for Afghanistan from 2018 through 2020. It has also come to light that the United States and its allies were expecting to raise $15 billion for the Afghan National Defense and Security (ANDSF) during the NATO summit in Warsaw. The funds are said to be raised with an aim to fund Afghan forces through 2020 as they face a resurgent Taliban. However, despite all the help being extended by the international governments, Afghan government must also work hard for enhancing the capacity and capability of her Armed forces through appropriate training and equipping them. Besides, fostering the collective regional connectivity by furthering the bilateral relations with the regional and international countries would augment the peace efforts in positive direction.
