Arshad Imran
Once again Taliban have galvanized their operations against the Afghanistan’s Government by defeating the inexperienced , inadequately equipped and trained Afghan armed forces. Taliban are now claiming spectacular attacks inside Afghanistan’s key cities for gaining the position of strength for any foreseeable future negotiations.
Despite of the deteriorating security situation, there are lot of hopes; surrounding the current situation which could still enable Afghanistan to survive on her on feet. Calculating on these possibilities , there are plenty of prospects for the economic progress in terms of excavating her mineral resources and potential of offering the status of becoming the hub of supplying energies to regional and beyond the region countries. However, the fascinating scheme could not be materialized without bringing the peace, political, diplomatic stability and above all the financial assistance of regional and international countries. Among the traditional major problems of Afghanistan; the foreseeable future could also witness the emergence and possible role of Islamic State (IS) in Afghanistan and beyond. It is generally feared that there is a possibility of Taliban joining the IS, in the first step by the so called splinter / estranged groups of Taliban and later as a whole might join the IS, due to the scope of gaining momentum through the monetary support and obvious national and international fame and coverage. However, recently some seemingly contradictory reports of differences have emerged, which claimed clashes between IS and Taliban elements in few provinces of Afghanistan which could also effect the adjoining Tribal belt of Pakistan, if not properly checked through updated border management. Experts believe that; If the claim of clashes between Taliban and IS elements in Afghanistan are based on reality, then it may resultantly deny the possibility of their merger in near future, however, emergence of splinter groups could not be ruled out ,which may join the IS .
On the other hand, the political progress in Afghanistan, since the Ghani-Abdullah power sharing agreement of September 2014, has remained snail paced and seems entangled. President Ashraf Ghani’s diplomatic strategy of aligning closely with Pakistan and maintaining a balanced approach while dealing with its neighbours; is although in the best interest of Afghanistan and regional countries, but due the internal political and bureaucratic oppositions, President Ashraf Ghani is being pressurized by the fragile Unity government partners; to clutch the gears towards Pakistan and adopt a policy of ‘Do More’. All such pressures are understandably directly and indirectly linked with the devilish approach of India, who remained involved in grooming and polluting the minds of the Afghan officials and politicians against Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan despite of her honest and presentable efforts on ground, sacrificing thousands of innocent civilians and brave soldiers; has not yet been duly appreciated and accommodated.
President Ghani has also taken the initiative to remain engaged in vigorous international diplomacy since taking office, while the relative stability of his administration has also been welcomed by coalition partners; the security situation within the country remains deeply problematic. President Ashraf Ghani’s out reach to regional and extra regional countries is meant to convince global and regional players to support his peace initiative. His foreign policy evolution from an Indian axis to a friendly Pakistan to bring peace has been unprecedented and the same is being made controversial for regaining the old fashioned, stagnant and failed approaches and policies, leading nowhere but destruction of Afghanistan. In such a scenario, there is a dire need to examine the extent to which IS may be looking to operate beyond Iraq and Syria, whether this could be in the form of existing groups pledging allegiance or IS itself directly exporting its paramilitary and organizational abilities. As there had been reports of IS affiliates involved in directly aiding Taliban in their assault on the northern city of Kunduz. Now, it has also raised questions about the widespread assumption that IS’s essentially internationalist orientation would in due course bring it into conflict with the far more nationalist and ethnically focused Taliban. It might also be the reason that President Ashraf Ghani government and some of international partners are responding with overtures to the Taliban in anticipation of a growing IS challenge. The possible emergence of IS in Afghanistan may also provide a rationale for the foreign troops to hold the ground for an indefinite period, whereas the Taliban core and principal demand is to vacate every foreign soldier from Afghanistan.
The complex situation in Afghanistan could not be resolved until and unless some unified regional and international efforts are not converged for achieving the peace and stability in Afghanistan and beyond. In this connection the recent development on Talks between Taliban and Kabul government; facilitated by Pakistan was broadly welcomed by the regional and international countries. The welcomed step suggested that it could yield positive results in future, despite of certain critical problems. The US State Department had termed the event as the first ever official talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban “a step in the right direction.” The White House had said earlier that both the United States and Afghanistan “acknowledge and appreciate Pakistan’s important efforts in advancing the prospects for a credible peace” in the region. The situation warrants that Afghan leadership should refrain from hollow blame game and sincerely endeavor to put their house in order. Mere blame game and hollow allegations could further complicate and deteriorate the situation along-with severing bilateral ties with Pakistan. Therefore, it is imperative for Afghanistan and Pakistan to develop a framework for strategic dialogue, focused on short, medium and long term solutions. Afghanistan and Pakistan have no other option but to cooperate and resolve their differences through political and diplomatic dialogue.
