- No one should be surprised that Russia uses its incredible cyber capabilities to collect intelligence on important US politicians, but publishing stolen information to influence a US presidential election is a first
Washington Post
Michael McFaul
Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to see Republican nominee Donald Trump become the next president of the United States. To that end, Putin and his government have taken unprecedented steps to influence America’s electoral process to help Trump. Whether Russia’s interventions will succeed is not obvious, but it’s clear that Putin’s government has the motives — and the means — to try.
Putin has rational motives for wanting Trump to win: Trump champions many foreign policies that Putin supports. Trump’s most shocking, pro-Kremlin proposal is to “look into” recognition of Crimea as a part of Russia. United States President Barack Obama and nearly every member of the Congress — Republican and Democrat — have rejected that idea vigorously. Only Afghanistan, Cuba, Nicaragua, North Korea, Syria and Venezuela have recognised Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Naturally, Putin would love to see the US join that list.
Trump also has made clear his disdain for America’s alliances around the world. Demonstrating his misunderstanding of how Nato works, Trump has demanded that other Nato members essentially pay America for protection, making many of America’s allies, especially in the eastern part of Europe, nervous about his commitment to defend them. Trump has also disparaged America’s allies in Asia, creating new opportunities for Russian influence. On trade, Trump’s promises to disrupt America’s agreements also play right into Putin’s agenda. From Putin’s perspective, what could be a better way to start the New Year than a trade war between the US and China or Mexico? Trump’s threats to stop paying America’s debts also would radically undermine America’s credibility as a lender — another desirable outcome for Putin.
On the whole, Trump advocates isolationist policies and an abdication of United States’ leadership in the world. He cares little about promoting democracy and human rights. A US retreat from global affairs fits precisely with Putin’s international interests. And if Trump becomes president, experts on US politics predict a tumultuous period domestically. If a President Trump tried to implement his radical ideas regarding immigration or walling off America’s southern border, a serious push-back effort would ensue, both in Congress and in the US as a whole. A US convulsed by infighting over Trump’s deeply-divisive policy proposals gives Putin more freedom to act around the world.
If a Trump victory would serve Putin’s interests, a President Hillary Clinton would not. Hillary will never recognise Crimea as part of Russia, she seeks to strengthen relations with America’s allies and speaks out about human rights.
Putin and his government already know Hillary from her four years as US secretary of state. They remember the tough line she took in seeking to negotiate a political transition in Syria; her efforts — though a failure — to get Russia to support even modest United Nations Security Council resolutions regarding this humanitarian tragedy; and her early advocacy for arming opponents of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad — Moscow’s ally. They remember her public criticism of irregularities in Russia’s December 2011 parliamentary election, which Putin lambasted as a “signal” to Russian protesters to take to the streets against him. And they remember her portrayal of Putin’s prized foreign policy project — the creation of the Eurasia Economic Union — as “a move to re-Sovietise the region”. No one should be surprised that Putin and his government would rather see Trump in the White House.
Putin not only has strong motives for wanting to Trump to win over Hillary, but also has some means to try to influence our presidential vote.
Kremlin-controlled media outlets have stated publicly their preference for Trump. RT, Russia’s state-controlled television station broadcasting in the US, has a clear preference for Trump. In one of many pro-Trump reports, the Russian state-controlled news service, Sputnik, said it confirmed Trump’s claim about Obama being the “founder” of Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) and tweeted the hashtag: #CrookedHillary. With vigour and volume, pro-Kremlin bloggers echoed these same messages on Twitter and Facebook. Putin himself has weighed in, praising Trump as a “yarkii” (“colourful”) and talented politician (though not as a genius, as Trump has claimed), who seems more amenable to work with Russia than other candidates.
More audaciously, Russians apparently stole emails from the Democratic National Committee, after which Trump encouraged Russian spies to steal again and publish more of Hillary’s emails. No one should be surprised that the Russian government uses its incredible cyber capabilities to collect intelligence on important US politicians. That is what spies are supposed to do. What they have never done in the past, however, is publish stolen information to influence a US presidential election.
To be precise, WikiLeaks — not the Kremlin — dumped this data into the public domain on the eve of the Democratic National Convention with the clear and successful intent of damaging the Democratic Party and their candidate for president. To remind, WikiLeaks is a foreign agent now meddling directly in America’s electoral process. The US is unlikely to ever know for sure if Russian spies gave this data to WikiLeaks, as WikiLeaks refuses to say and probably would not even know. The Russians are sophisticated enough to use intermediaries to make sure the recipients of the stolen information would not know the original source. WikiLeaks is promising to release more emails, fuelling expectations about a possible “October surprise”.
US electoral experts, not me, must judge whether Russian efforts will sway the elections this autumn. From my amateur armchair, the tactics seem crude and counterproductive. Does Sputnik tweeting #CrookedHillary really win over any undecided voter? I hope not, but I don’t know. What I do know is that secretary Clinton could well become President Clinton on January 20, 2017. Russian officials — from Putin to the person running the Sputnik Twitter account — may want to start thinking about what they plan to do then, and stop playing around with America’s electoral process now.
