S Hamid
Anticipation”, “forecast”, “foresight” are the most underutilized words in our collective mindset. We simply do not notice anything until it affects us and most of the time it is too late to take any remedial measure. Water is an opportunity and it is a threat as well but like all other resources it is an ignored chapter in our books that only surfaces after major floods or droughts, all to be forgotten again at the onset of other issues. One of the most precious resources in the world, water is predicted to be the sole reason for a third world war. Pakistan currently has 210 Million Acre Feet (MAF) of water out of which 33% is underground and 77% is the available runoff water. Only 12.5% of the available water is utilized, resulting in a shortage of 40 MAF and by 2025 this is estimated to grow to a staggering 150 MAF. Almost 100 MAF (47%) of the water is wasted mainly due to the unlined canal system, faulty downstream water management and traditional irrigation methods; inundating fields instead of the more efficient drip sprinkler system. The precarious nature of the situation is highlighted by a recent UN report that brings the per capita water availability from 5260 cubic Meter (1951) to 1032 cubic Meter (2016). For a country like us which is largely dependent on Agricultural sector for income, 20.9% of GDP (2014-15) total employed in workforce 43.5% (2014-15) this is a major red flag. In addition to this Pakistan’s aggregate power potential is 100,000 MW. Hence water can strangle us both physically and economically.
Our “friendly” neighbour fully exploits our dependence, as a lower riparian of all the rivers. Ensured by the partition plan, India gained control of all the rivers. The first time India stopped our water was on April 1, 1948. The water supply was restored only after payment from Pakistan. India continued to alter the water supply to its advantage. The Inter-Dominion Accord signed on May 4, 1948, stipulated adequate release of water by India upon annual payments by Pakistan; the agreement barely served its short term purpose. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (now World Bank) brokered the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) between India and Pakistan on September 19, 1960. Dubbed as one of the most successful water sharing accords by historians the treaty gave exclusive water usage rights of; Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, the eastern bound rivers to India whereas Pakistan got Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. A transition period of 10 years was decided that ensured water supply on the eastern rivers to Pakistan. A financial compensation for the eastern rivers was also agreed upon to enable Pakistan to develop dams namely Tarbela Dam on Indus and Mangla on Jhelum and eight link canals, known as “replacement works”. Both countries agreed to co-operation and sharing of data, Indus Water Commission was established with a Commissioner appointed by each country.
Due to lack of knowledge and or foresight some very important issues were omitted from the IWT like; ground water management, climate change, quality of water, above all the treaty allowed India to use the Western rivers water for irrigation and hydropower projects without ascertaining the cumulative effects of such projects on Pakistan. In addition to this lack of a competent presence in Indus Water Commission has adversely affected us. There are minimal efforts in Pakistan to measure let alone conserve ground water, salinity is also threatening the quality of water. The rapid melting of Hindukush-Himalayan glaciers, disruption in monsoon patterns resulting in an increase in duration and intensity of droughts and floods, higher temperatures, as well as accelerated pollution of fresh water are areas that both India and Pakistan should sit down and discuss to come up with a coping mechanism. There are reports that India has planned 155 hydro power projects in Kashmir, along all the rivers. 33 projects are currently in various stages of completion commencing from 1970. The most controversial amidst these projects is the Kishanganga River Dam, on Neelum River in Azad Kashmir. The water is set through a 24 Km tunnel for power production which will dodge the 213 Km long Neelum tributary, on which Pakistan is building Neelum-Jhelum Hydro-Electric Project (NJHEP). Another project on Chenab River which involves faulty designs is the 850 MW Ratle hydroelectric projects.
Secretaries of Power of both countries met in New Delhi on July 14-15 to convey their respective positions but none of the countries are willing to compromise. Pakistan is currently making a case for the court of Arbitration. India has been on the defensive and has agreed to reduce the pondage of Kishanganga project but not as per Pakistan’s demands. Pakistan denies Indian claims that Kishanganga will divert Neelum River’s water by only 10% where as actually the figure stands at 30%. Pakistan can also get relief in case of International Court of Justice’s award of 9m3/s of natural flow of river in Kishanganga (2013) as well as other runs on the Western Rivers which are essentially Pakistan’s.
The Indus Water Commission has also had its fair share of problems on Pakistan’s side. Mr. Jamaat Ali Shah, former Indus Water Commissioner was removed from office in 2010. He was responsible for singlehandedly allowing India to build Nimoo-Bazgo Hydroelectric Project and Chuttak Project, cutting the Indus River flow. Unfortunately his treason against the country has gone unpunished as he fled the country for Canada till the authorities pointed him out.
Pakistan is in desperate need of power projects. Unfortunately lack of awareness and political interests reign supreme, Kalabagh Dam is the biggest example. Recently Mr. Zafar Mehood, Chairman Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) resigned; there is growing speculations that his stature became controversial after his “pro-Kalabagh Dam” articles and delays in execution of Tarbela-IV extension.
According to Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR), our country touched the “water stress line” in 1990 and we crossed the “water scarcity line” in 2005. We have not built a new dam since 1960. Our overall capacity to store water is decreasing. Being the fourth highest in rate of water use and the highest in Water intensity rate (the amount of water used in cubic meters per unit of GDP), Pakistan is the third most water stressed country in the world. Experts fear that Pakistan is at a risk of running dry by 2025. We need to address this issue on an emergency basis. A strategy must be devised to conserve water; first and foremost awareness of water conservation must reach the grass roots in urban and rural areas. Farming practices are in dire need of up gradation, especially the irrigation system; the government needs to spend more to enable proper systems to be in place. Reservoirs for underground and running water must be made; special attention must be paid to conserve rain water and water overflow from flash floods, dams are the only way forward for us , the sooner we realize it the better we will make things for ourselves. Water pollution must be addressed on an emergency basis, threatening health and wealth of our nation. As far as the IWT goes, we must not take anything for granted, Indians moves must be pre-empted and nullified, putting aside all other political interests. Climatic change is an issue that threatens all, we must sit down and invest in proper research. We need to endow in our future by investing in education, science and technology, this challenge is best turned from a threat to an opportunity by our minds and mindset. Above all we need to enhance our foresight capabilities and put aside the individualistic tendencies that plague our nation. The clock is ticking and it is only a matter of time before all other wars fade into the background for a drop of water.
