Kamran Arshad
Afghanistan being a non-coastal country located at the heart of Central Asia is going through the anguish of extreme poverty and economic catastrophe. Fortunately, the country has a great potential of excavating its natural resources for the economic stability and prosperity. According to international surveys carried out during recent past, it was estimated that its different rare earth reserves may surpass the worth of trillions US dollars. By exploiting these reserves, through mining could convert Afghanistan into a regional central Hub of economic activities. Besides, the construction of gas pipe line projects meant for the passage of natural gas from one regional country to the other one, would enormously benefit the Afghan economy and lessen the dependency on other countries, which mainly dictate their self interests on Afghanistan. The dependency of Afghanistan on other countries greatly affects her capability and capacity to take independent and sovereign decision. Hence, her dependency generates a cycle of “Stockholm syndrome”, compelling the Afghan Government to set aside the national interests and act in favour of donating countries.
There is a dire need for Afghanistan to understand the fragile situation and act according to the larger national interest for bringing the desired peace and prosperity. If Afghan government takes serious and immediate actions for utilizing and exploiting her enormous and rich natural resources, there would be no need of begging form India and other countries. Parallel to address the security concerns in Afghanistan, present Afghan government desperately require incorporating progressive economic stability in their priority list. In this regard, as a quick start, there are few gigantic energy projects in the offing at regional level, desperately needing the practical “Go Ahead” by all the stake holders. Among these projects; one is the Trans Afghanistan Pipeline project also known as Turkmenistan-Afghanistan- Pakistan-lndia Pipeline or TAPI. Recently the Asian Development Bank has shown confidence that this gas pipe line project involving $10 Billion is a workable project and the problems and challenges would be done away with by 2020. The TAPI project is a proposed natural gas pipeline being developed by the Asian Development Bank. Earlier, it was estimated to be completed around 2017, the pipeline was proposed to transport Caspian Sea natural gas from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan into Pakistan and then to India. Estimated cost of the pipeline project varies between $7 billions to over $10 billions. The initial capacity of the pipeline was estimated to be 27 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year of which 2 billion cubic meters was to be provided to Afghanistan and 12.5 billion cubic meters was to each Pakistan and India.
In Afghanistan, the TAPI was proposed to be constructed alongside the Kandahar to Herat Highway in western Afghanistan, and then taking route via Quetta and Multan in Pakistan. Finally the pipeline was to enter Indian town of Fazilka, near the border between Pakistan and India. Keeping in view the security situation, the Asian Development Bank had proposed alternative routes in Afghanistan. One alternative was through Taskepri in Turkmenistan to Faryab followed by Baikh, Samangan, Kabul and Nangarhar Province of Afghanistan, and from there to Peshawar, Nowshera, Islamabad and Lahore in Pakistan to India. Afghanistan is no doubt, one of the blessed countries in the world, in terms of its abundance of natural resources. If the hidden treasures are orderly and properly excavated and managed, it could be enough for sustaining the infrastructural development and running the essential needs of the country. There is a lot of potential in Afghanistan for utilizing the human resource and naturally occurring minerals including the rear earth elements. Earlier, the US Department of Defense’s Task Force for Business and Stability Operations back in 2010, had estimated that the Afghanistan’s mineral resources are more than the worth of $900 billions. Simultaneously, Afghanistan can also utilize her potential in the field of Agriculture; As UK, US and China are showing their interests to invest in Afghanistan’s agriculture related fields. Chinese companies have already been discovering the venues mostly in mining and energy sectors while captivating contracts in Afghanistan. China is becoming a considerable country in making Foreign Direct investment in Afghanistan. Besides, every progressing country including the regional and international arena, is keenly observing the ongoing development scope and peace progress in Afghanistan.
The current situation in Afghanistan from the security point of view has not shown any restraint and Taliban are continuously operating against the local and foreign troops. There is a dire need of coordinated and indiscriminate actions against Taliban through mutual understanding and cooperation of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Both the countries must strive to tackle all the negativity created by our enemies, including escalation of the mistrust and misunderstandings between the two brotherly countries. However, through mutual military and intelligence cooperation both the countries could defeat terrorism and forthcoming evil of IS expansion in the region. Afghan government must also thrive in the advancements in different fields and delivering social justice and equal opportunities for peace and prosperity to all ethnic and religious groups of Afghanistan.
Afghanistan also needs to realize that any security failure in Afghanistan should not be linked with Pakistan and the indiscriminate blame game on the Indian behest would not fetch any result for the intended peace and prosperity in the region and beyond. There are lot of expectations from the Afghan Unity government that they would not succumb to Indian devil traps and would soon recognize her friends and Foes. The recently emerged rifts between the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and CEO, Mr Abdullah Abdullah over the electoral reforms and other administrative issues are also very damaging for Afghanistan, as it negatively affects the overall security environment. Bringing peace in Afghanistan would ensure further political, economic and social activities in Afghanistan. The TAPI project’s future is directly linked with Afghanistan’s peace and stability. The TAPI pipe line’s proposed route in Afghanistan would not be possible to materialize, if the local power brokers of the respective areas are not taken onboard and made the stakeholders. Afghan Unity government’s Will and ability to run the country would also be tested through such an international and mega projects. Success of said project would be a beacon of hope and prosperity for the Afghan economy and could lead to attract further Foreign Direct Investments for the desperate economic out look of Afghanistan. It is beyond any doubts that the proposed project has the potential to transform the future of the entire region. This project has economic and geopolitical significance, subject to improved security situation in Afghanistan and its trickle down effects on Pakistan. The policy of non interference, false accusations and refraining from supporting the foreign countries to capitalize Afghan soil against any county of the region would bear long lasting peace and stability for Afghanistan and beyond.
