Saman Hamid
There is a huge difference between struggle from within and implanted ideologies. India unfortunately is being misled by the Modi regime who think that akin to people like Baramdagh people in Kashmir have an agenda. In addition to this there is also an illusion that their nuclear powered enemy will come under pressure and the limited confrontation will force the world to shift their gaze away. As the curfew in Kashmir reaches a quarter there are desperate attempts to quell the inevitable by our wise biggest democracy in the world led by the visionary leader Mr. Modi. Day after day Mr. Modi’s grip on reality is slipping away as the latest comes last month when he proclaims “blood and Water can’t flow together” post Uri attacks. By suspending Indus commissions meeting and ordering stalled work on Chenab and Jehlum to recommence, India is threatening Pakistan’s water supply. To strengthen the veracity of this threat Afghanistan is also eager to lend a hand to their “saviors” by commencing work on their eastern rivers.
Afghanistan has witnessed an investment of over a billion dollars from their Indian counter parts since the war on terror began. India though reluctant to fill US’ shoes in re-building efforts due to the huge costs involved but ties with the Karzai and now the Ghani regime are ever more close. This initiative has followed Selma dam’s over 300 million dollars and Human Resource support in the form of engineers. India has found inroads on the Afghan soil since the departure of Taliban regime. Not only does this diminish Pakistan’s influence and resulting economic opportunities this also acts as a door way to Central Asia for an India desperate especially after CPEC. The covert offensive against Pakistan also finds a place on the Western border. It seems that Modi is in a mood to indulge in overt warfare from the West as well. Pakistan and Afghanistan do not have a water sharing treaty hence any developmental work can be carried out on both sides.
As a lower riparian of water threat to Pakistan on the Western front is very real. Kabul, Kunnar and Chitral are the three rivers flowing into Pakistan from Afghanistan. Kabul River with 23 million Acre feet of water joins Indus at Attock, the contribution may not be a lot but our winter crops dependence on River Kabul is the main cause of concern. As far as the 65% of the water supply via the Eastern border is concerned, revoking the treaty is not an option for India. Under article 12(4) of the treaty both countries have to agree to revoke the treaty. Even if hypothetically India does manage to get out of the treaty, while eying the UN Security Council membership any such acts would serve as an “anti-promotion” for her image. Additionally revoking the treaty would cost India dearly in terms of forgone opportunities that the treaty can provide once tensions subside. Above all stopping water is not a game as the investment requirement is just too great to be feasible. Some experts also dub Chinese interest in the current Indian provocation as India is a lower riparian of Chinese rivers and they don’t have a treaty. China recently green lit a $740 million hydro power project on Xiabuqu tributary of River Yarlung Zangbo – the Tibetan name for Brahmaputra, the dam though will allow free flow of water. At the onset this project is one of the three projects on the same river aimed at irrigation for agricultural purposes. The dam will not disturb Indian water flow. Nevertheless the Indian media is in frenzy fearing Chinese claims having the same credibility as their own for Pakistan.
Some Indian experts estimate that India is only harnessing 12% of the identified 20,000MW of hydro power of the Western rivers. If there was peace between India and Pakistan under article 7 of the treaty both can harness this power under joint ventures. This is the potential of just one of the positives that can come out if India is willing to open her mind and heart and drop the dagger she uses to back stab us again and again. There is no escaping Kashmir’s freedom, as the struggle seems to have cracked the genes of Kashmiris, diverting attention and pulling antics is a one trick pony that cannot outlast the sacrifices of the people of Kashmir. India must realize that antics like water wars are suited in text books and pulling them off in the real world will invite trouble. Pakistan too needs to wake up from slumber and get more strategists on board that can take the country out of the current predicaments all we need as a nation is to unite and look in the right place for strength, we can simply not bank on miracles for survival.
