Mubarak Baloch
The simmering cauldron, as seen from the current diplomatic strain between Pakistan and India is likely to boil over more worsening the situation. Mutual relations of both countries have been undergoing spasmic pain since last about two years after BJP formed government took over in India. Leadership of BJP; as generally believed, hails from right wing Hindu extremists. US policy tilt towards India further complicated the situation. Prime Minister Narendra Modi certainly feels emboldened after USA started endearing India showing a major policy shift in South Asia. There is hardly any need for an elaboration about USA aims in region as China’s expanding influence is cause of discomfort to America. Situation goaded Pakistan in search for new alliances in region and Islamabad successfully established its initial outreach with Moscow. The latter is not less eager to reciprocate Pakistan’s gesture. Recently, concluded military exercise between the countries substantiates the perception of alliance in making. Strain between Pakistan India relations underwent more pressure after Pakistan detained a serving officer of Indian navy from Balochistan involved in espionage and terror acts in Balochistan. Commander Kalbushan Yadav’s detention enraged Indian leadership and caused tremendous pressure on Ajit Kumar Doval, NSA to Modi. Doval has been the linchpin and doing as catalyst to foment trouble at various levels in Balochistan, a fact he himself hinted in one of his lectures to RAW officials which is available at public domain in the media.
Ever since the seizure of Yadav India faces huge criticism and its credibility of claim promoting pacifism stands seriously dented. To lessen the impact of embarrassment New Delhi in violation of diplomatic norms and protocols of ‘Geneva Convention’ detained Mr. Mohammad Akhtar, an official in Pakistan’s High Commission in India. The official was detained for several hours and was made read; under duress, a statement confessing to have been involved in undiplomatic activities. Afterwards India asked not only Mohammad Akhtar but three more Pakistani diplomats to leave India being person non grata. Seeing persecution of its High Commission officials and diplomats Pakistan also asked nine officials of Indian High Commission in Pakistan to leave Pakistan. Recalling and expelling diplomatic staff is not a new phenomenon between Pakistan and India but to minimize Yadav episode averse impact Indian ire targeted Pakistan. High Commission’s diplomats and officials. However, there is a likelihood that situation may worsen further spoiling the semblance of normalcy between the two.
Bellicosity, trouble fomenting statements, creating tension along LoC and Working Boundary, propagating ‘not carried out’ surgical strikes are indicative of Indian emboldenment ever since its closeness with USA surfaced. How for far reaching would be the new policy of American leadership only time will tell but deterioration in the relations of two countries would make the regional peace hostage. Washington would welcome the absence of regional peace so that the ongoing materialization of CPEC concept is scuttled. There is need of giving chance to peace. Though hostilities would not easily cease to exist in the face of US versus China row in the region.
Pakistan has no choice except to seek and forge new alliance as a counter weight to Indo-US nexus running against China and thereby against Pakistan. Pakistan has a reason to have grumble against USA as the latter has showed generosity while adopting liberal policy towards India’s nuclear programme. Recently, efforts were also made to get enlisted India as member of NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) but China neutralized such efforts with her veto right. USA, India and Afghanistan see to internal polarization of Pakistan as sagging area for exploitation. Pakistan will have to strengthen its internal situation as this would only deny the trio any niche for exploitative activities. Internal fissures like sectarian divides, religio-militancy, unrest in Balochistan, simmering in Karachi in the wake of melting of MQM etc need particular focus of Pakistani leadership. To intensify domestic wrangle in Pakistan no endeavors would be spread by the trio.
The current diplomatic row may slide further down further freezing relations between two countries. As a matter of fact world powers have their own vested interests in continuity of irritants between Pakistan and India. Hence no efforts are made to help resolve mutual disputes including Kashmir problem. As they say, national interest dictates foreign policy and prompts to befriend even erstwhile opponents. India has recently threatened to scrap Indus Water Treaty and strangulate water flow to Pakistan. No only this but Indian animosity is unlikely to get slackened as its belligerence has ‘bold pat’ from the USA and ilk.
