Mubarak Baloch
Ever since the start of cold war and its end which saw the collapse of union of the former Soviet Socialist Republics, the peace in Afghanistan has remained hostage. First it fell prey to mutual hostilities between the former USSR and America and its allies and afterwards the internal polarization shot it down. Hardly needs an elaboration with regard to apocalypse the country suffered amid chaotic scenes due to internal bickering and active battles among erstwhile Mujahideen factions. Gradually; the Jehad disintegrated and factions with pronounced ethnic trappings took birth. The continual instability can be ascribed to obstinacy and hunger for power temptation prompted both Jehadis and war-lords to fight out their way to it. Professor Burhanddin Rabbani (Late), Gulbaddin Hekmatyar (reached reconciliation with current dispensation of Afghan government) and ethnic factions led by Uzbek war-lord Abdul Rashid Dostum (the incumbent vice President) his lieutenant Abdul Malik, and (late) Ahmed Shah Masood (been close to Rabbani) and Abdul Karim Khalili who led a Shia out-fit Hizb-e-Wahadat preferred bloody battles over political dialogue. Situation invited the attention of neighbouring and regional countries having their own axe to grind. Now with double edged sharp axe both neighbouring and non-neighbouring countries are fighting for bigger say in Afghanistan situation.
Amid this instability Taliban appeared with sweeping victories in battle fields and then occurred 9/11 and with it came the obliterative US attacks against Taliban militia and subsequently Karazi and others of that ilk were brought in and installed. Afterwards President Ashraf Ghani has been brought forward with a unity government involving Mr. Abdullah Abdullah, and Abdul Rashid Dostum being the major components of his coalition government. To everyone’s usual surprise bickering is now reported within unity government amid recent dismissal of few ministers of Ghani’s cabinet. American paper Washington Post (16 Nov 2016) carried a report, “Divisions within Afghanistan’s government reach a new crisis point” by Pomela Constable. She in her dispatch to WP abundantly highlighted simmering situation between President Ghani and his coalition partners. Mr Abdullah Abdullah, the rival of Mr Ghani has been deserted by few of his political lieutenants. Ustab Mohammad Atta Nur, apparently close to Abdullah having the governorship of Balkh province is reported for direct ‘wheeling and dealing’ bypassing Abdullah with Ashraf Ghani for more favours. Abdullah smells a bigger conspiracy against his political clout. Whereas Abdul Rashid Dostum has his own reasons to believe that some palace conspiracies are underway to get him assassinated. He also has constant complaint that President Ghani is too much possessive when it comes to power sharing. The gulf is widening and facilitating Taliban militants’ forays as seen from recently launched increasing number of suicide attacks at different fronts in Afghanistan in which a few foreigners have also died.
America’s new Afghan policy after Donald J Trump takes over as president would surface but Trump is unlikely not introduce any radical change in his Afghan policy if seen from American leadership’s track record of maintaining the basic chemistry of foreign policy. Vested interests of Afghan neighbours, regional countries and America have turned the Afghan situation unpredictably fluid. As it goes, ‘too many cooks spoil the broth’ aptly describes the situation. A perception is that Americans don’t like a powerful Afghan government as it might go defiant to American diktat. Hence a docile and weak government is their aim and it is already there.
So what are the designs of other countries both neighbours and regional? Pakistan, being the worst victim of the aftermath of Afghan Jehad wants end to current disorder and expects a bona fide and friendly government at Kabul to do: First: Rein in the militants targeting Pakistan while sitting in Afghanistan. Second: Deny space to countries misusing Afghanistan soil and creating internal security situation for Pakistan. Iran has a sizeable Shia community particularly living in Bamiyan province of Afghanistan for being used as political card but this time Tehran wants permanent peace in Afghanistan as it will go a long way in its interest in view of its desire for economic prosperity. Earlier both dream for economic prosperity and end to its international isolation moved Iran to reach reconciliation with US over its nuclear programme. China seeing huge say of US in Afghanistan has never interfered in Afghan affairs but permanent peace is its cherished wish as this would promote commercial activity in region and beyond. India has multiple aims to achieve from the troubled status quo of Afghanistan. It wants to sabotage Pakistan’s interests in Afghanistan and to create internal security situation for it. This is what she has been doing. Kabul has the nod to New Delhi’s anti-Pakistan activities with the consent of Washington. The latter, for obvious reasons, aims to see Pakistan embattled in view of its (Pakistan) closeness with China. The ultimate major victim is Afghanistan where peace remains unfulfilled dream unless the meddlesome ladels dipped deep are pulled out from Afghan cauldron. Countries with vested interests in Afghanistan’s muddle are obfuscating the situation and making it a mismash. The hubbub spoiling peace prospects in Afghanistan is unlikely to die in the face of interfering outlook of its neighbours. Afghan government’s own unsound policy of allowing itself being used as pawn by setting one country against another is also a no less hurdle.
