Khursheed Imran
There is a broader consensus on the view that the stability in Afghanistan and stability in the region are two mutually reinforcing pillars. Besides, it is widely debated that a stable and prosperous Afghanistan can only be envisioned in a stable and prosperous region. Thus, the future of the region is dependent upon Afghanistan’s ability to meet its state building measures and move beyond what has been called the decade of ‘transition,’ to the decade of ‘transformation’ which may extend till 2024. The prospects for a stable and prosperous Afghanistan is directly linked with Afghanistan’s ability to sustain economic growth, provide goods and services to its people, reduce its dependence upon international aid, and realize its natural resource deposits. As Afghanistan could become a transit hub of energies, thus an Afghanistan connected to the South and Central Asian region through the revitalization of the ancient Silk Road, will not only help to re-establish Afghanistan as a land bridge, but also help sustain its economy by facilitating and connecting the transit of goods and energy across the region.
Earlier, there were reports of a potential; bright future for Afghans; in the shape of different authentic sources enlightening heaps of hidden untapped treasures in Afghanistan; whose initial and rough worth had been estimated more that three trillion US dollars. However, the news remained a mirage and nothing practical came into existence for the betterment of Afghans. Experts believe that whatever rationale is being presented by the Afghan government, it could not suffice the lack of their interest ;coupled with other clashing interests of regional and extra regional forces which has most probably immersed Afghanistan into a new phase of the amplification of regional and international rivalries. At regional level, it is speculated that rivalries could take place between India and Pakistan, on the one hand, and Iran and Saudi Arabia, on the other hand. At the same time, regional states as Turkey, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are also expected to get involved in regional rivalries over Afghanistan if there interests are not served and catered for in Afghanistan. At international level, the main rivalries suspected to take place would be among the United States, China and Russia. Of course, European countries, especially three major European powers; that is, the UK, France and Germany, could also be not overlooked. On the whole, regional and international rivalries over Afghanistan could become focused on the fields of cultural, political, religious, economic, Military and Security issues. It is evident that any one of the aforesaid countries has its own special advantages in every one of the above mentioned fields and, naturally, should make the most of its advantages. Although every country in the neighbourhood of Afghanistan must be having some divergent and convergent point of views in addressing the mutual problems but its lingering for an unlimited time of period may prove dangerous. Therefore, and for a variety of reasons, as a priority measure, cooperation among each neighbouring country and Afghanistan needs to be promoted mostly in the field of economy and making Afghanistan a hub of energies transit owing to its central position.
As Afghanistan is passing through the incubating stage of its development, needing sincere and concrete assistance from the regional and international community , whereas India is making unnecessary endeavors to spark bitter relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan by inducing Afghanistan’s influential personalities to speak against Pakistan without any factual and true perspective. India recent ill endeavors against Pakistan at borders and international forums has compelled Pakistan’s general public to revisit their thinking and loose expectations that both the countries may resolve their problems through dialogue. India seems mistaken that Pakistan current spade of security situation and will to peacefully resolve the issues could further be exploited and demonized. Experts believe that India must have to revisit her policies in the region and Afghanistan which is mostly based on countering China and destabilizing Pakistan. Afghanistan has also categorically announced that her soil would not be allowed against any country. India needs to forget the days of former Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who used to blindly obey them and even pitched him against US by creating operational and political hurdles in Afghanistan.
Despite an enduring conflict, weak rule of law, corruption, a doubtful security transition process, an ambiguous progressive peace process, and more than a decade of nation-building, Afghanistan has begun to regain its primary position as a trade and transit hub. The practical manifestation of the envisioned future needs to be incorporated for achieving the desired goal for said purpose it needs to commence infrastructural rehabilitation in all sectors, including railways, highways, energy sources, natural resource discoveries, and trade and transit. Besides, Afghanistan needs to get maximum advantages and facilitations from the regional forums, such as the Regional Economic Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan (RECCA), the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), the South Asian Association of Regional Countries (SAARC), the Shanghai Cooperation Organizations (SCO), and others. Afghanistan needs to consolidate its infrastructural build up, serving to reflect its economic growth, its potential to connect Central Asia with Southern Asia and vice versa, and its capacity to provide mineral wealth and become an energy source to the region; whilst on the international market, it serves to demonstrate its vital importance to ensuring stability in the region. It is a fact that initially Afghanistan will increasingly require more regional assistance rather than international involvement, with regards to military and wasted development assistance which could prove to be the ultimate beacon of progress for Afghanistan.
There is a dire need that such an approach must be assessed, analysed and further developed upon through various regional forums, if it is to achieve greater connectivity in the region and all the regional and international stake holders must support the initial phases of development and becoming an active country for achieving Global peace and stability. There is another aspect which could affect the economic development of Afghanistan, it is broadly based on the fact that while opening the venues for economic development in Afghanistan, there might be serious competition among the stake holders which if played fairly by the competing countries could allow Afghanistan to thrive and benefits could trickle down to grass root level and the poor segment of the country may thrive which could yield positive economic results in the region.
