Mubarak Baloch
Ever since China evinced its interest in South Asia by undertaking development projects in Pakistan and its similar initiatives else where in the region the world powers awoke showing apprehensions against Beijing’s expanding wings. Despite America’s prodding Pakistan did not dilute its relations with China. Pakistan decided not to succumb to US pressure after seeing America’s kowtowing to anti-Pakistan overtures of India. Russia being erstwhile adversary of Pakistan recently moved closer to Pakistan and the latter accordingly reciprocated. Russia has somehow welcomed CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) and wants to join the project for its own economic dividends. With this it appears that the troika of Pak-China-Russia is fast on way. On the other hand, Turkey despite being close to USA also moved closer to troika particularly towards Pakistan and Russia after the failed coup d’état in Turkey. The latter has strong apprehensions of Fethullah Gulen’s hand in coup who is living in USA. America despite Turkish leadership’s formal demand and remonstrations did not go against Gulen nor could dispel the misgivings Turkey has.
On the other hand Turkey’s overtures towards Russia are obvious and both are being joined by Iran as well particularly on Syrian issue. Turkey despite being so far in US block on Syrian issue is on way to exchange its notes with Russia and Iran in order to help peace in Syria particularly to defuse the tense situation in Aleppo where a human tragedy is apprehended due to intense fighting between rebels and Syrian government forces being supported by their respective supporting countries. It is pertinent to mention that Bashar-ul-Asad of Syria being supported by Iran and Russia to regain Aleppo from the rebels’ control whereas Saudi Arabia, USA and their co-minded countries are abetting rebels.
Analysts feel comfortable to conclude that assassination of Mr. Andrei Karlov, Russian ambassador to Turkey is an attempt to dilute the growing closeness between Moscow and Ankara. This dilution would go to the taste of powers who want to restrict Russian influence in Syrian crisis. Vladimir Putin termed envoy’s assassination a terrorist act clearly hinting that Moscow is unlikely to budge from its alliance in making with Turkey. Turkish leadership also vowed to continue with its relations with Russia. Similarly, the scheduled meeting of foreign ministers of three countries (Iran, Turkey and Russia) in Moscow is likely to make a headway burying their mutual differences on Syrian issue. Turkey despite being NATO ally wants that Kurdish militia from Syrian side must not be boosted to create problem in Turkey. This is one of major concerns of Turkey which is likely to be addressed in foreign ministers’ meeting.
USA is apparently losing its key ally in the shape of Turkey in new emerging equation after Russian leadership jumped into Syrian crisis and two countries fast moved to rapprochement after Turkish fighter jets shot down Russian military aircraft near Syrian border with Turkey on November 24, 2015. Immediately, Recep Tayyib Erdogan in his visit to Russia called on Vladimir Putin in Saint Petersburg and both leaders vowed to put past acrimony into oblivion. Erdogan has already hinted for joining SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), a military and economic block particularly led by Russia and China. Ankara’s joining of SCO likely to weaken and subsequently end its association with NATO and its attempt to join EU. Failed coup in Turkey prompted Erdogan to review his alliance with USA but his anger against Gulen has not been echoed by America compelling Erdogan to seek fresh alliance with Russia. Whereas the assassination of Russian ambassador to Turkey and similar nature likely attempts would put the patience of both Moscow and Ankara to test. Would the two capitals be able to make such attempts fail is an important question. Aleppo fighting may end with massive causalities from both sides but the emerging alliance is likely to flourish giving a fillip to Russia’s regional luster. And same goes true here in view of CPEC enterprise where China is expanding its economic influence being echoed by Russia. Russia-China confluence would prove bitter test for America in the region. Such assassinations do create hiccups in relations of countries but are unlikely to sabotage the alliances if leadership of concerned countries is unwavering in its resolve.
Though some analysts have other view with regard to severance of relations between Turkey and USA. Saying adieu, they opine, to alliance with USA may not be easy for Turkey howsoever Erdogan has been seriously mulling over other options. Erdogan further understands that Turkey’s recent failed coup attempt followed by his relentless crackdown, and never dying PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) and Gulen’s placement are the cards Washington might exploit to cow down and dissuade Turkey from going in the lap of US adversaries. USA may also exercise identical options to dissuade Pakistan embracing China. Without resorting to activities USA would not be able restrict alliances in making. If America exploits internal polarization of Pakistan and Turkey implications would not be negligible. Rather some internal security situation is likely to take birth for both countries. Situation is so far unpredictably fluid to say the least.
