Saman Hamid
As the year draws to a close one of the most significant developments has been the continuous struggle of Indians for gaining entry in NSG(Nuclear Suppliers Group), Pakistan followed suit(in June 2016) but so far the NPT stands as the biggest hurdle despite the explicit interest of Americans for things to go the other way. In both June and November meetings attempts of Indian entry in NSG were thwarted by China. The summit in Vienna ended with the Chinese laying two points to address entry of non-signatories of NPT; first one was to find a solution applicable to all non-NPT applicants through consultations and the second one was to discuss admission of specific non-NPT countries into the NSG. Amidst all this another study has made headlines across borders. In late October this year a study was published by “Institute of Strategic Studies titled; “Indian Unsafeguarded Nuclear Program”. It is co-authored by four nuclear scholars; it examined the nuclear capabilities of India especially with respect to Nuclear Proliferation. The study comes at a strategically important time and raises all the right questions about Indians ambitions for the group.
The nuclear fuel and enrichment capabilities are far beyond their requirements; this enables Indians to not only nuclear powered ballistic submarines but also build nuclear weapons, specifically 356-492 plutonium based nuclear bombs. India is also gearing up in the weapons race; the international community is surprisingly mute at the $250 billion on weapons acquisition in the next few years. One of the most recent examples is the INS Arihant; commissioned in August 2016 this is the first indigenously constructed nuclear submarine with the assistance of Russia. There are plans to add at least 4-6 such similar weapons by 2025. One thing must always be considered when it comes to Indian bids for proliferation; Indians misused USA and Canadian nuclear resources to build their nuclear weapons and kick start their nuclear program.
As far as weapons proliferation is concerned, Indians have held a dubious record. It was in the 1980s that Indians arranged secret shipment of Chinese, Soviet and Norwegian heavy water to start the Madras and Dhurva reactors. During 1983-89 the Soviets sold 80 tons of heavy water under the table and 26.5 tons of Norwegian heavy water through diversions. The Institute of Science and International Security (ISIS) released two reports in 2006; according them India has a tendering process for acquiring equipment for its gas centrifuge program, this process has been going on for years with hundreds of advertisements for tenders, the Department of Atomic Energy’s (DAE) sub-entity Indian Rare Earths (IRE) uses websites and newspapers to invite companies for supply or manufacture of equipment without specifying that the end user is a gas centrifuge program under the DAE. The Indian proliferation credentials are anything but strong; they tend to acquire equipment without specifying the end user hence in many instances it is for the nuclear program thus India is one of the six countries that requires European countries to implement extra care to prevent illegal exports, the bidding process for the gas centrifuge program enables leaks of sensitive information, poor export controls enable onwards proliferation through India. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)’s review of regulatory framework of the Nuclear Power Plants in April 2015, the Indian Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB) lacks proper authority and regulatory framework and internal emergency dealing mechanisms. In March 2016, Indian media reported large quantities of Thorium exports to China and Europe. In addition India has poor nuclear security record. According to Nuclear Materials Security index (NTI) India ranks far below than many NSG members.
As far as Indian safety of nuclear power plants is concerned, it is “shrouded in mystery”. In March this year, Kakrapar Atomic Power Station (KAPS) in Gujarat had to be shut down following a leak of heavy water, this occured 5 years after improvement. This comes in addition Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant, which was shut down due to a leak recently. Rajasthan Atomic Power Station at Rawatbhata during maintenance work was shut down some four years back as some workers were exposed. While the first instance occurred in Unit-5 on June 23, 2012, the second instance took place in Unit-4 on July 19, 2012. Since the early 1990s around 16 serious incidents have taken place causing shut down of nuclear power plants.
There are reports now that India is NSG chairman; Rafael Grossi has proposed a new formulae to ease Indian entry in the group. Both Non-NPT members that are India and Pakistan would be asked to submit the grounds for which they seek membership for the group, which will lay course for our friendly neighbor to gain an edge. Although China, Turkey and New Zealand are likely to oppose the move but increased pressure from the US is only intensifying maneuvers. Pakistan can take a few steps of her won to gain an advantage , the Convention on Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (CPPNM) and its Amendment has already been signed some additional accords in line with policy can be signed that will force NSG to consider Pakistan on equal footing. India’s deal with Japan in November this year, Japanese will supply nuclear reactors, fuel and technology to India, a first non-NPT country to be dealt with in such a manner, this has only gone to further reinforce Indian NSG bid.
Indians are being hailed and raised as an opponent to the Chinese by the US that cannot stand the advances especially in the backdrop of the current CPEC development in the region. The synergy of Pakistan and China is a thorn in the eyes of India, US and their allies. The news of Russians joining the proponents of CPEC is also not sitting well with anyone. In this backdrop Geo-economic interests reside in giving Indians advantages especially as a growing market of consumers, customers and labor. NSG ironically is these days trying its level best to admit India, with the current non-NPT state, the biggest paradox given that the group came into being due to Indian nuclear tests in the 1970s. This also signals the changing world and the hypocrisies justified by economic incentives.
