Saman Hamid
December 26, 2016 was the fourth time Agni-V was successfully tested. The 5000Km nuclear Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) puts Beijing in range. This test comes at a very difficult time the world is at cross roads. Increasingly diverse forces are at play emanating from extremist sources. From Donald Trump’s election to Putin’s statements to Brexit to our very own “friendly” Mr. Modi trying to strangle our water, the world seems at ends. This latest move by India enables it to enhance its stockpile of nuclear arsenal, standing at a range of 100-120 nuclear missiles equal to Pakistan, the Indian nuclear weapons may seem meager as compared to 7300 or Russians and 6900 of the United States but the situation is grave given the current NSG bids, majority’s willingness towards the induction and the status of NPT. Despite the doctrine of all three neighbors i.e. India, china and Pakistan as being “no first use”(NFU) the Indians simply cannot be trusted as first and foremost, their nuclear program revolves around “misuse” of US and Canada for utility of their nuclear technology towards development of nuclear weapons. Secondly the Indian Defense Minister Mr. Manohar Parikar in November at a book launch this year expressed the “personal” desire to revise the nuclear doctrine from NFU to “using them responsibly”. Thirdly a recent study published by the Institute of Strategic Studies (ISS) discusses Indian potential to develop nuclear weapons, citing their fuel enrichment capability. Lastly the silent launch of Indian Nuclear Submarine, INS Arihant makes the Indian Navy capable to launching nuclear missiles in sea, another glaring attempt at proliferation looked on blindly by the world.
According to a report commissioned by the US Congress recently India is the second largest arms buyers amidst developing countries. Saudi Arabia is the leading during 2008-2015 with $93.5 Billion; India is second with $34 Billion, the US is a major beneficiary of these diversification efforts. One of the most interesting factors is the increasing diversification of India is weapons suppliers. This is for an economy that is fast growing but with around 23% of its population below poverty line. This month alone before Agni V Indian missile program had suffered two failures namely Nirbhay and BVRAAM, the failures were huge question marks on the entire Indian ballistic missile defense program. Commenced since the early 1980s, until recently there were only just a few major breakthroughs chiefly after pacts with other nations such as the Indo-Israel defense pact.
Chinese are viewing the situation with caution. While possessing ICBMs having a range of 13000Kms, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying on Agni-V is reported to have reminded India of the UN Security Council Regulations on development of ICBMs for India and talked about maintaining strategic balance. Being “partners of Co-operation” according to Chunying peace and stability is important. Pakistan established its missile program since the late 1980s; currently Pakistan seems to be aiming at development and deployment of short-range missile systems armed with low-yield nuclear warheads. The Shaheen-III, has a range of 2,750 km is our longest-range missile to date was tested for the first time in 2015. There are continued tests of Shaheen-II, Ghaznavi, and Babur. In addition to land-based systems, Pakistan is also developing nuclear-capable air launched cruise missile, the Ra’ad, it is in an early stage of development for Pakistan’s navy. Nuclear submarine is also according to media reports in the works, Pervez Musharraf in an interview way back in 2006, signaled Pakistan’s ability to develop and support this technology.
The United States and her allies’ remains perhaps distracted at all the developments, hinting either approval and or assistance in the developments across border. China; the growth rate, the market and the string economy is at the moment likely to be the biggest threat and with the CPEC, poses a bigger threat to these powers. Hence they resort to Indians, with a developing economy, booming population India is a contender to China and US’ backing is proving her case a bit more. With Agni-V the critics of Indian missile defense are quite for now but the disturbed strategic balance seems to bother no one save China and Pakistan. If history has taught the world anything it is to remain balanced in views and treatment, alas! The lesson seems to go empty especially in the current environment.
