Aftab Zameer
Having an overview of China – Afghan trade relationship, it is beyond any exaggeration to comment that Sino – Afghan economic cooperation and trade relations date back to the era of Silk Road. Modern day relations were established during the year 1955, and then were further strengthened through the ‘Treaty of Economic and Technical Cooperation’ in 1964. In the recent years, trade between the two countries had steadily increased and China had promptly emerged as one of the main exporters to Afghanistan during the past decade. It is pertinent to mention here that Afghanistan’s main exports include carpets and rugs; dried fruits and medical plans. Main imports are petroleum; machinery and equipment and food items. Afghanistan’s main trading partners are Pakistan, having approx 48 percent of total exports and 14 percent of imports, and Russia, having 9 percent of exports and 13 percent of imports. Others include Iran, China, India, Japan and Turkey. A cursory look into the past reveals that China-Afghan Trade volume highlights certain facts which points towards the environment advantageous for China’s business interests. Experts compared that just between 2002 and 2010, the trade volume remained considerably high i.e. China’s export volume increased from $19.91 million to $704 million. Furthermore, in recent past the Afghan Government and the donor agencies were contracting a number of Chinese companies for diverse areas of reconstruction activities. Afghanistan is naturally blessed by having the abundance of natural resources like; copper, iron, coal, marble, precious metals, lithium, gemstones and above all hydrocarbons. Some of which have been discovered while most remains unexplored, owing to the ongoing conflict.
According to Afghan and American Geological Surveys, conducted between 2007 and 2009, deposits of copper, mercury, rare-earth elements, sulfur, chromites, asbestos, potash, graphite, and sand and gravel were found in over 20 mineralized areas. The survey revealed that, “The most significant known metal deposits are of copper and iron”. The total copper resources in Afghanistan ranged up to 60 million metric tons of copper of which the sediment-hosted copper deposits at “Aynak” were estimated to contain nearly 30 million metric tons copper. In addition, the sedimentary iron deposits were also in abundance, and the Haji Gak and surrounding deposits were estimated to contain about 2,260 million metric tons of iron ore with grades higher than 62 weight percent iron.
During the first decade of the 21st Century, trade between China and Afghanistan had steadily increased and China emerged as one of the main exporters to Afghanistan. China also made substantive contributions in terms of developing the natural resources and infrastructure of Afghanistan. In 2007, Metallurgical Corporation of China (MCC) and Jiangxi Copper Corporation (JCCL) agreed to make the single largest foreign investment of $3.5 billion in Afghanistan by winning a tender to develop what geologists believed was the world’s second largest undeveloped copper deposit at Aynak in Logar Province, 35 kilometers southeast of Kabul. These copper deposits were estimated to be worth $1-$3 trillion, according to the United States Geological Survey report of 2007. Indeed, China was the first foreign country, which signed an oil exploration deal with Afghanistan, which could have earned $7 billion over next two decades. In 2011, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and its Afghan partner, Watan Oil & Gas, secured the rights to three oil blocks in the provinces of Sari-i-Pul and Faryab in northwestern Afghanistan. China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and its Afghan partner were then exploring crude oil from Amu Darya River Basin oil deposits in northern Afghan region. Amu Darya River Basin deposits are of more than 87 million barrels of crude oil reserves. Besides this, Northern Afghanistan region was believed to contain more than 1.6 billion barrels of crude oil, 16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 500 million barrels of natural liquids gas. China had initially invested $400 million for the oil exploration in these oilfields in Afghanistan.
Garnishing the stability in Afghanistan, there is a critical need for regional countries to play a imperative yet neural role in Afghanistan through a regional cooperation mechanism. This all has to be done along with respecting the territorial veracity and sovereignty of Afghanistan viz a viz its neighbours. The geo-economic significance of Afghanistan as well as impressive Chinese investments in that country indicates a desire by both countries to upgrade their relations and uphold economic cooperation. Experts are of the opinion that the Afghan imbroglio, uncertain security situation, fragile economy and divided society can be brought back to normalcy, thereby enabling Afghanistan to establish fruitful relations with the rest of the world. For this very purpose, China needs to accommodate Afghanistan in their future economic and political policy for the stabilization of Afghanistan through its economic investment and reconstruction. China has two specific reasons to become involved in Afghan issues, especially by investing in Afghanistan. China is desirous of contributing to the reconstruction of Afghanistan’s economy and facilitate the economic engagement so as to practically demonstrate; China’s main contribution to Afghan and regional stability. Besides, China is also concerned that any new instability in Afghanistan may not spread to South Asia and Central Asia, which could seriously impact on the stability and security of its western province, Xinjiang. Hence, for Afghanistan’s government, the key for success is in looking after the national interests of the country rather than being played puppet in the hands of the donors, as presently being played by India. Afghanistan is naturally blessed with unlimited resources, which could lead the country towards prosperity, if their political leaders may adopt the indigenous policy and policy of non interference. Experts believe that for enhancing the economic activities in this region, China can contribute her expertise for the region, and as a quick start for Afghanistan, may contribute in provision of facilities like communication network, educational and health services. Experts are of the opinion that in reality, China is not willing to adopt a confrontational approach towards its neighbourhood and particularly in Afghanistan, where NATO and US residual elements, still maintain their dominance. However, China seems committed for the constructive engagement with Afghanistan and Central Asia for its subsequent influence and economic cum political gains for maintaining her global stature.
