Khizer Ashfaq
China’s progression towards a constructive and positive role in Afghanistan is internationally recognized as practical and credible step forward. Pakistan is also sincerely pursuing its role as a facilitator towards Afghan peace and reconciliation process. Pakistan is perusing the policy of positive engagements with all the stakeholders, including US and China. Although, with a number of variables, the situation remains fluid; hence prudent handling would be the recipe for tangible outcomes. Since the start of 2014, China’s Afghanistan diplomacy became more positive, proactive, and dynamic. In October 2014, Beijing hosted the fourth Foreign Ministers’ meeting of the Istanbul Process during 2011 to encourage the cooperation and coordination between Afghanistan and its neighbours and regional partners.
The Istanbul Process meeting also demonstrated China’s positive attitude towards regional and international cooperation on Afghanistan. While desperate to play a positive and vital role for the peace talks with the Taliban and Afghan government, China is widely expected to take along all the stakes holders in the region and beyond for having the smooth implementation of her development plans in this region. China has an advantage of a capacity and capability of convincing regional countries by setting her own examples, which could be followed by any country, having a genuine interest and willingness to support a strong, peaceful and prosperous Afghanistan. A stable Afghanistan means a better transport hub for the regional and extra regional countries.
Experts believe that china must have calculated the risk factors of indulging in the “Black Hole” type of Afghan peace process. Chinese leaders may have found themselves under internal pressure to take a more active role in the long stalled peace process, which seems to be a tactical shift of Chinese diplomacy as that kind of commitment is surprising for the experts, since China often tries to take hands- off approach in regions and nations at war. Another twist in the Afghanistan’s situation is that the United States has reduced its troops to help the Afghan government, whereas the general hold in Afghanistan; soon after the reduction of foreign troops obviously have tilted the balance of power in favour of Taliban.
Besides, Taliban have also gauged the weakness of the Afghan government in terms of her bad governance, inability to create a cohesiveness and right balance while distributing the key official appointments; glaringly favoring Mr Abdullah’s side while ignoring the dominant and powerful Pashtun pan. Besides, the unexpected surrenders of the Afghan Armed forces in front of Taliban offensive are quite disheartening events for achieving the desired goals by the Afghan government and foreign donors. While elaborating the need for an active role of China in Afghanistan, experts argue that Afghanistan shares a border with China, so China must get involved to promote the talks and to secure the stability in the region. Yet if China is to play a productive role in peace talks with the Taliban, she would need to take onboard all the regional and extra regional countries for convincing and motivating them for contributing their due share and support for long-lasting peace and prosperity in Afghanistan and beyond.
China has probably done her spade work ,as a number of interactive session on the Afghan peace subject were carried out ,even the Afghan Foreign Minister, Salahuddin Rabbani was invited to share the Afghan perspective of resuming the peace talks and bringing Afghanistan’s warring factions to the negotiating table, prior to actually dipping into the pond. Mr. Rabbani’s trip signaled that China has a stake in the resumption of peace talks. Experts term that one reason for China’s engagement could be that, a stable Afghanistan could become a critical transportation hub and market for Chinese goods, and, eventually, another investment opportunity for President Xi Jinping’s grand economic plans for Central Asia.
China has become increasingly worried about the insurgent violence in its western frontier region of Xinjiang, and officials say that the Uighurs, a Turkic-speaking ethnic group, might be falling under the influence of radical elements from outside China, motivating some of them to carry out attacks in Xinjiang. Since 2001, Uighurs have fought in Afghanistan, and Afghan officials say they have told Beijing about the dozens of Uighurs that have been captured there in recent past. It is believed that Uighur militants in Afghanistan have not been neutralized yet, because the government has not been able to assert control over all of its sovereign area. China had long been reluctant to get involved in the Afghan war, not wanting to be seen as taking sides. The formation of the Quadrilateral Coordination Group, which resumed the efforts to bring the stakeholders sitting together and finding solutions for achieving peace, is no doubt bears significance but there is another aspect of the group that it was the only institutionalization so far of US – China political cooperation in Afghanistan. It means that the two countries are coordinating their policies much better and China considering a larger role in Afghanistan Peace Process, duly acknowledged by US. China initiatives and her practical endeavors in Afghanistan would also be able to rein India’s overambitious plan for the region.
Besides, it would help to bring gradual improvements in the overall relations of the regional countries. while moving from past relationship of rivalry and mutual misgivings tocautious cooperation. Experts comment that China needs a peaceful and stable neighborhood to advance its economic wellbeing.
The new Silk Road scheme, which is Beijing’s pursuit to develop its economic influence westward toward Europe by increasing trade and development in Central Asia. Afghanistan could play an important part in China’s plans, if it can overcome the deadly strife that makes doing business there a near impossibility.
China’s economic incentives for helping with the peace process are claimed secondary to trying to establish stability in Afghanistan. The copper mine at Mes Aynak, operated by a Chinese state-owned enterprise outside Kabul, has languish mainly because of the unstable security situation and the precarious state of Afghanistan’s transportation network and other security issues. China is believed to play a “supportive and constructive” role in the talks, and that all of the participants saw its presence as “a confidence-building measure. It is a harsh reality that Taliban simply could not be wiped out from Afghanistan or Afghan society, because they are deeply rooted in the rank-and-file of society and are legitimate representative of the Pashtuns, the majority ethnic group sharing a dominant and prominent reality of Afghanistan. Hence for carving any future proposal for Afghanistan, it should never avoid the due and respectable share of Afghan Pashtus. Besides, there is a dire need to keep resuming the peace processes by the Afghan government and all the negativity surrounding the peace process must be overcome by Afghanistan and international community while allowing the space for any positive contributors of peace, as China has moved into the process. It would help to start the long awaited journey towards peace and prosperity in the region with long lasting positive economic and political impacts on all the stakeholders.
