Saman Hamid
We are facing great change and things are contantly changing. The one thing that is constant perhaps is the attitude of the Indian establishment towards Pakistan. Whether it is Congress or BJP hostilities never cease experiencing crests and troughs in terms of intensity but the subtle animosity remains intact. The Modi regime is no different and there are very few expectations from the newly appointed COAS, General Bipin Rawat. Rawat’s from the infantry and superseded senior most army commander Lt Gen Praveen Bakshi, who headed the Eastern Command and was next in line to be the army chief, besides Southern Command Chief PM Hariz. Rawat’s extensive operational experience; 10 years along LOC, Jammu and Kashmir and Colonel commanding a battalion in the North with China during tensions in 1986 and operational responsibilities along Line of Actual Control and North East (Myanmar) have enabled him to qualify for the coveted post. COAS’ appointment though has aroused its fair share of controversy as In India the norm is to select on the basis of seniority and the last time such as appointment was made was more than 30 years ago. Mr. Modi’s personal interest as well as National Security Agency’s active role is at play in the backdrop and General’s origins from Uttarakhand same as the RAW chief’s who was coincidently appointed under similar circumstances.
The operational experience of Rawat speaks at great length about the potential course of action of any COAS and it is also on many occasions employed to send a message to the opposing forces internally and externally. Since December Rawat’s inclinations have been made pretty clear especially in the wake of his excessive inclination towards resorting to media in order to express himself. His appreciation of the surgical strikes which are a big question mark on Indian military’s potential globally and appreciation of the “cold start doctrine” are a big hint towards the aggressive posture Indian establishment prefers in the current context. In the broader scheme of strategies this is in line with the “Doval Doctrine”, purported by Ajit Kumar Doval, a former Policeman, the “offensive defender” has memorably threatened Pakistan openly on many occasion including when he has reportedly said; “‘you do one more Mumbai; you will lose Balochistan’.
Rawat, Doval and Modi regime’s ambitions are further highlighted by the fact that India has increased her Defense spending from 2.74 trillion Indian rupees compared to previous fiscal year’s (2016-17) budget of INR 2.49tr, placing her as the 6th largest military spender. Around 43 contracts have been signed by India worth more than 92bn INR for ammunition and spares for fighter jets such as the Sukoi-30MKIs, Mirage-2000s and MiG-29s, transport aircraft like the IL-76s, and mid-air refuellers like the IL-78s and Phalcon AWACS. In addition 10 contracts worth over Rs58bn have been signed with Russian companies for engines and 125mm armour-piercing fin-stabilised discarding sabot ammunition for T-90s and T-72 tanks, Konkurs anti-tank guided missiles and Smerch rockets. In addition to this India aims to upgrade by 250 single-engine combat planes and both Swedish defence giant Saab and American Lockheed Martin are competing to build a factory for this purpose in India. The development of Agni-V and Agni-IV nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and the manner in which the Indian Media factored in China, it is clear that Indians are aiming for “deterrence” as opposed to dissuasion.
We survive in the Trump era now and perhaps as Pakistanis we already knew what we were getting into due to PM Modi and the aggressors supporting him. Appointments and disappointments are shaping the future as CPEC is taking shape. The situation in Indian held Kashmir is also exposing Indian atrocities and freedom seems near. China is fast on track to overtake the US at the helm of the global world order and the Western forces cannot sit still. In the wake of all this especially the new “pivot to Asia” policies focus on India is more than ever, the same Mr. Modi is showered with praise who once was denied US Visa due to his policies in Gujrat. Rawat is no different superseding two colleagues that have instilled grounds for further demoralization of the Indian army and his interest in the spotlight is not sitting well with the pundits. We need to be ever more mindful of the changes and the inevitable threats we face as a nation.
