Mubarak Baloch
The peace in country, where two superpowers had clashed followed by never ending continual battles both between erstwhile Jehadists and among the countries with their vested interests, seems to have been the ultimate victim. Given the current turbulent situation in Afghanistan with Taliban’s lethal forays, recently reported in media, the present dispensation in country appears to be unable to check and contain the erosive instability. Meanwhile ‘national unity government’ led by Dr Ashraf Ghani has successfully wooed Gulbuddin Hekmatyar who agreed under a deal and is in the process of being incorporated in unity government. Engineer Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s name carries undetachable notoriety for being involved in fierce infighting and pounding of Kabul then held by his political opponents. His entry will obviously create some political ripple effects for the coalition partners.
Peace talks with Taliban are stalled ever since the death news of Mullah Umar was made public by Afghan government which badly disturbed Taliban leadership but Mullah Mansur (late) successor of Mullah Umar could successfully manage and kept Taliban rank and file organized and intact.
The stalemate needs to be seen in obtaining international perspective with quadrilateral talks proved unproductive and initiative is now emanating from Moscow and Beijing. The former after easing out Syrian president in Aleppo quagmire is now on way to lustrously present itself by helping peace in Afghanistan. Beijing understands that with permanent peace in Afghanistan regional tranquillity would stand ensured to the benefit of its increasing presence in region in the shape of OBOR (One Belt One Road) and CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor). Currently, efforts are in hand with China and Russia having lead role including India, Iran and Pakistan onboard to help refloat peace talks. A few sittings have already been held and last was held in Moscow in December last year where Afghanistan’s absence was conspicuous. To further proceed with talks next sitting is scheduled to be held sometime this month in which Afghanistan government is also expected to depute its representative to participate in the parleys. Whereas it is unclear whether Taliban would also be invited to take part in the talks. Obviously, without their presence the talks would remain insignificant.
It looks anomalous that no NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) member countries including USA is represented in such efforts. Absence of America in talks puts a strong question mark on optimism attached with the outcome of peace efforts. Analysts opine that howsoever; Moscow and Beijing may try to advance peace efforts these cannot succeed unless helped by America. It is said that Beijing will effectively persuade Pakistan and same role Moscow can play in case of India to sink their differences helping restoration of peace in war-torn country. Sincerity of all four countries though can bring a salutary change in the stalemated situation yet America is unlikely to let such a peace to return to Afghanistan being promoted by its adversaries like Russia and China. As the successful peace parleys under sponsorship of these two countries would bolster their international stature and regional sway but the same will not go down well with America. In case of peace in Afghanistan the looming large proliferation threat of ISIS and Dai’sh in Afghanistan and for that reason in the region is likely to end. China would heave a sigh of relief as Afghan turbulence’s likely spillover effect into China’s Muslim majority province would remain minimum. President Donald Trump has not come out with clear policy in view of assertive role of Russia and China in helping permanent peace in war-torn country. Understandably, Trump administration will not encourage such efforts even if these are having bright prospects for success. It is the ‘rivalry’ again compounding the situation. Peace in Afghanistan seems to be the victim of palpable antagonism between America and duo (Russia and China) as both are vying for regional and international supremacy at the const of each others stature. Hence the stalemate is unlikely to end soon.
