Umer Daraz
The overall security situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating. The present security situation in Afghanistan is causing serious concerns among the regional and international countries, despite of their every possible assistance; to fortify the security apparatus of the Afghan government. The overall security situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating. A number of reasons have been attributed, towards this end, including bad governance, corruption, Human rights abuses, drug and Human trafficking, political differences and above all; the failing security apparatus of Afghanistan. Such kind of situation, obviously provide an ideal environment for any militant or insurgent groups to cash the vulnerabilities of the government. The recent Afghan Taliban suicide attack on an Army base outside the Northern city of Mazar-i-Sharif , killing more than hundred of Afghan soldiers, triggered anger and left the embattled Afghan army in disarray. It also led the resignations of Afghan Defence Minister and Afghan Army Chief.
It is becoming a norm that Afghan Taliban are claiming victory after victory of strategically important places in Afghanistan. Besides, they are carrying out spectacular attacks inside Afghanistan’s key cities for gaining the position of strength and holding the cards of implementing their own terms and conditions during any future negotiations. Calculating on the possibilities of Afghanistan to stand on her own feet, there are plenty of unmatchable economic prospects for progression. Afghanistan possesses one of the richest untapped mineral deposits, by excavating it and offering the status of a hub, supplying energies to regional and beyond the region countries. However, the fascinating scheme could not be materialized without bringing the peace, political, diplomatic stability and above all the financial assistance of regional and international countries.
Among the traditional major problems of Afghanistan; the foreseeable future could also witness the emergence and possible role of Islamic State (IS) in Afghanistan and beyond. It is generally feared that there is a possibility of Taliban main movement may join the IS, in the first step by the so called splinter / estranged groups of Taliban and later as a whole might join the IS, due to the scope of gaining momentum through the financial support and obvious national and international fame and coverage. However, recently some seemingly contradictory reports of differences have emerged, which claimed clashes between IS and Taliban elements in few provinces of Afghanistan, which could also effect the adjoining Tribal belt of Pakistan, if not properly checked through updated border management.
In Afghanistan, there are also serious issues attached with different stakeholders, which is not letting the Afghan cart to move towards the direction of peace and prosperity. An overlook on the policy of US towards Afghanistan show that , since assuming office President Donald Trump has barely mentioned Afghanistan, a country where US forces have been affianced in the longest war in American history. Perhaps this is because, after more than fifteen years and $700 billion, the US has little to show for it other than an incredibly weak and corrupt civilian government in Kabul and a never-ending Taliban insurgency. Now Afghanistan faces a new horror, as a testing ground for what can only be called a US weapon of mass destruction. Trump’s silence on Afghanistan was finally broken on the evening of April 13,not with the announcement of a new political strategy but with the dropping of a mega bomb, the GBU-43, nicknamed the “Mother of All Bombs,” on proclaimed ISIS base in Afghanistan. it caused untold damage and gave an opportunity to Afghans to hate the United States.
keeping this prevailing scenario, the earlier endeavors of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani towards diplomatic strategy of aligning closely with Pakistan and maintaining a balanced approach while dealing with its neighbours; was in the best interest of Afghanistan and regional countries. However, due to the internal political and bureaucratic oppositions duly influenced by India, President Ashraf Ghani was subjected to undue pressure, even by the fragile Afghan Unity Government partners; to stop advancing towards Pakistan and adopt an India centric policy, which is totally against the sovereignty and stability of Pakistan and Afghanistan too. President Ghani’s foreign policy evolution from an Indian axis to a friendly Pakistan to bring peace was unprecedented, but very soon, it was made controversial for regaining the old fashioned, stagnant and failed policies, leading nowhere; but destruction of Afghanistan.
In such a scenario, Afghan government direly need to examine the extent to which IS may be looking to operate beyond Iraq and Syria, whether this could be in the form of existing groups pledging allegiance or IS itself directly exporting its paramilitary and organizational abilities. As there had been reports of IS affiliates involved in directly aiding Taliban in their assaults on the Afghan security forces and their foreign allies, the recent attack in Afghanistan Army Base could also be one of that mutual cooperation, which needs to be thoroughly investigated by the Afghan government.
The recent disclosure by US Defence Secretary Matiss, after the Afghan Taliban attack on Afghan military base ,duly warned another tough year for Afghanistan. It has also raised the alarms about the widespread assumption that in due course, IS’s essentially international orientation could cause more causalities in Afghanistan. It might also be the reason that President Ashraf Ghani government and some of international partners are responding with overtures to the Taliban’s increasing influence and progression in anticipation of a growing IS challenge. The possible emergence of IS in Afghanistan may also provide a rationale for the foreign troops to hold the ground for an indefinite period, whereas the Taliban core and principal demand is to vacate every foreign soldier from Afghanistan. The complex situation in Afghanistan could not be resolved until and unless some unified regional and international efforts are not converged for achieving the peace and stability in Afghanistan and beyond. In this connection the recent development on Talks between Taliban and Kabul government; was broadly appreciated but it was glared that without the true representation of the entire stake holders, the crisis would further get prolonged for decades.
