Sarah Khan
The first official visit of US President Trump has practically laid the foundation of much anticipated Arab – America – Israel alliance in the Middle East. The summit was attended by Pakistani Prime Minister. After signing multibillion arms deal with Saudi Arabia; Arab states are encouraged by President Trump to join Israel in an anti-Iran axis, an alliance that would upend decades of diplomacy in the Middle East according to senior analysts on the region. The group of Arab nations include Egypt and Jordan, both of which have peace treaties and formal diplomatic relations with Israel. The allianceprincipally involve Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have discreetly established ties with Israel in recent years, driven by a mutual hostility towards Iran. They share intelligence regularly, and Israeli defense companies do business in the Arab world.
Prior to Trump’s election as US President, conventional wisdom in Washington up to Obama administration held the view that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict trumped everything else in the Middle East, that no problem could be resolved until that one was out of the way. This perception no more exist and events in the meantime have proven it. The main drivers of chaos in the Middle East are conflicts between Sunni and Shia Muslims, between Arabs and Persians. This has been true for decades, but with civil war in Syria, the rise of The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), anarchy in Libya, a region-wide proxy war in Yemen, and an Iran unshackled by sanctions, it is obvious now even to casual observers. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been reduced almost to an asterisk.
Unshackled by sanctions, Iran is considered as immediate threat to Arab and Israel in the region. After the Iran – US nuclear deal – which was considered a success of Obama administration – Arab nations and Israel expressed their serious concerns over the deal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu characterized it as “a bad mistake of historic proportions,” the Israeli cabinet unanimously rejected it, and leading opposition figures joined in slamming it. Saudi Foreign Minister Jubeir wrote in NY Times, “But Iran, rather than confronting the isolation it has created for itself, opts to obscure its dangerous sectarian and expansionist policies, as well as its support for terrorism, by leveling unsubstantiated charges against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.” Saudis believe that the deal deliberately does not deal with this issue. In Saudi eyes it actually makes the situation worse, because lifting sanctions removed Iran’s isolation as a rogue state and gives it more income. Iran’s ambition to be the region’s hegemon is fueled not reduced by the deal.
In the meanwhile, there is transition in global balance of power. The US power is declining. The global balance of power is shifting from unipolarity to multipolarity. China and Russia are joining hands to counter US influence in Asia. Both China and Russia played a crucial role in finalizing Iran nuclear deal. Both have tremendously enhanced cooperation with Iran after lifting of economic sanctions. Chinese One Belt One Road initiative have created ripples in US as it is anticipated that China will rise as world’s economic giant by 2025.
In the age of global transition, Pakistan has a strategic opportunity to re-align itself with China-Russia camp in new world order. Pakistan has become a pivotal state in China’s OBOR vision by signing China – Pakistan Economic Corridor. But becoming part of Arab-Persian rivalry by appointing ex-Army Chief as head of Muslim NATO is a strategic blunder. Despite subduing to all Arab demands for so called Islamic Alliance, Pakistani Prime Minister along with his delegates were not even well received during Trump’s lecture to Muslim leader on countering ISIS and Iran in the region.
Pakistan has been suffering badly for decades at the hands of shia-sunni proxy war in its territory. Iran being neighboring state easily harbors its proxies inside Pakistan and Saudi Arab provides funds in abundance to Wahhabis to check Iranian influence. On the eastern front, there is hardly a day when Pakistani Army don’t face firing from Indian side. In the recent past, Pak-Afghan border has also been militarized due to firing from Afghan forces inside Chamman. With militarized eastern and western fronts, Pakistan can no more afford to be part of any proxy war in Middle East. In the age of global shifting alliances Pakistan must align itself in China – Russia – Iran camp. The US – Arab – India – Israeli camp is a challenge for Pakistan due to Indian policy of internationally isolating Pakistan. Hence, to become party in Arab – Persian conflict in Middle East would be highly counterproductive for Pakistan.
