Mohammad Jamil
mjamil1938@hotmail.com
The Indian government has announced it will commence talks with Kashmiri leaders in Jammu and Kashmir. The home minister, Rajnath Singh, announced on Monday that a former chief of the intelligence bureau, Dineshwar Sharma, would lead a sustained interaction and dialogue to understand legitimate aspirations of people in Jammu and Kashmir. In fact, aspirations of the people of Kashmir are known to all and sundry that Kashmiris want right to self-determination bestowed by the UNSC. For the last three years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had taken a tough line and refused to have any dialogue with Kashmiri leaders unless they accepted India’s stance on Kashmir. However, Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesperson Nafis Zakariy said: “For any dialogue process to be meaningful and result-oriented, it has to include three parties – India, Pakistan and the Kashmiris.”
Indeed, there are reasons behind this apparent shift in India’s policy. For one, India has drawn flak from international community for its repression in Kashmir, as Indian armed forces have killed many and blinded more than 1000 protestors during the last one year by using pellet guns. Thus, it could be a part of damage control exercise. Secondly, APHC and other resistant groups were poised to observer 27th October as black day, and the government wanted to give a soothing effect. Thirdly, before US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s visit to India, it wanted to convey the message that India was open to talks with Kashmiri leaders. Perhaps Narerndra Modi has been nudged to take such action by the US. Fourthly, Indian economy is in shambles, and the situation in Kashmir and other parts of India has stymied the investment, and consequently economic growth is declining.
Let us discuss the fourth reason first. There is consensus among economists that India’s economic growth has declined from over 8 per cent to 5.7 per cent, and the downwards trajectory continues. As the prime minister put it, the fuss over a decline in growth to 5.7 per cent in the last financial quarter was unwarranted since it had fallen to much lower levels below that during the previous Congress rule. There is a perception that Modi government has fudged figures, as the decline in the growth has been consistent over six quarters. As growth rates dip and some industries are closing down, unemployment is rising, whereas Narendra Modi in his election campaign had vowed to increase ten million jobs every year. The hard truth is that Indian economy is in shambles, and Narendra Modi’s halo is disappearing, which will adversely impact BJP in 2019 elections.
The situation has been exacerbated by the demonetization exercise last November and because non-implementation of GST. Latha Jishnu, in her recent article captioned ‘Sleepless in Indian economy’ wrote: “If one needed a strong pointer to the consequences one has to look no further than the industrial hub of Surat in Modi’s home state Gujarat where entrepreneurs are pulling the shutters on industry and putting their money into speculative finance.” Recent talks by respected economists and strong supporters of the present government have also stoked fears about the Indian economy. The famous economist and politician Dr. Subramanian Swamy recently pointed out that “the economy was in a tailspin and if corrective action was not taken quickly, the economy could collapse.” The economy had grown at a 9.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2016 but started slowing down through the four quarters of 2016 and more sharply in 2017 to 5.7 per cent in 2017.
Most economists agree that there is a lack of private investment and the government is stepping up investment in order to keep up the growth rate. They suggest sharp reduction in taxes that will boost the savings rate and in turn step up private investment. They also believe that economic policies are dictated as much by the circumstances and the market sentiments; therefore the Reserve Bank of India can be urged to reduce lending rates. The alternative is most certainly a slowdown and a sharp rise in unemployment. But the problem is if lending rates are reduced, the banks will also reduce rates on the deposits, which will discourage savings. If taxes are reduced, the government would not have enough funds for arms purchases. However, the basic problem is that India has been rocked by Hindutva politics, and unless BJP’s affiliated groups are reined in, the investment climate would not change.
Before concluding, it would be pertinent to give some background of 27th October. This day in 1947, India had landed its troops in princely state of Jammu and Kashmir in blatant violation of the Partition Plan and also against the popular will of Kashmiri Muslims. Jawaharlal Nehru and Lord Mountbatten were the masterminds of this greatest human tragedy, whereas Hari Singh then Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir and Cyril Radcliff, head of the Boundary Commission were accomplices. India had announced the accession of Jammu and Kashmir under a controversial Instrument of Accession. The fact remains that Jammu and Kashmir is a Muslim majority state, and fulfilled all the conditions in the partition plan for the princely states to join Pakistan keeping in view peoples’ aspirations, culture and religion. The partition plan of 3rd June 1947 envisaged that over 565 princely states would join India or Pakistan on the basis of contiguity and aspirations of their people.
