Rafiullah Khan
Many experts of the Afghan conflict are converged on the theme of continuous peace initiatives by the stakeholders in Afghanistan. The earlier meetings of Afghanistan, Pakistan, United States and China delegations to discuss a roadmap for ending the Afghan conflict needs to be revived. As, currently the tug of war between Afghan Taliban and the Afghan government is moving towards chaos. Besides, the complex and confused hiring and firing in US administration by President Trump is also effecting the serious and dedicated approaches for achieving peace in Afghanistan. Every day, with an exception of few countries, most of the US related countries awaits for the surprises of Mr. Trump’s tweet. It is not only perplexing the situation of our region but it is also negatively impacting the international arena. Every new approach by the US, apparently meant for resolving the Afghanistan’s situation, is adding fuel to the already deteriorating peace in Afghanistan.
On the other side, the Afghan Taliban have simultaneously increased their offensive despite the ongoing positive vibes from the opponent and the oppressors of Afghanistan. The US administration is somehow still working on the hypothesis that military and political arms against the Afghan Taliban could be manipulated in parallel, without realizing that practically, it has been proven wrong in Afghanistan. Besides, the main obstacle for peace is not the Afghan Taliban’s unwillingness to share power, but the presence of foreign troops in the country, same is the strong demand of Afghan Taliban for initiation of any constructive peace deal.
The increased offensives by the Afghan Taliban is not only effecting the morale of the Afghan troops but it is also proportionally increasing the support of the Afghan people. The most contributing factor in the increasing support of Afghan Taliban in different parts of Afghanistan is the ongoing indiscriminate counter offensive operations by the Afghan forces. It becomes more reactionary, when the foreign troops are also involved in these operations. The recent trend of major attacks in different important provinces and districts of Afghanistan including Kabul, signals another emerging deteriorating peace factor of Afghanistan i.e acquiring strong hold by ISIS or Daesh in Afghanistan.
Experts believe that without some form of durable and reliable facilitation for reconciliation and bringing the Afghan Taliban at the negotiating table ,the conflict would continue as a stalemate. In the long term, it would be an untenable situation, hampering reconstruction efforts and cause further suffering for Afghanis. The prospect of peace negotiations needs to be intensified ,as in the years ahead, particularly there is an expectation that the regional powers such as China and Russia would likely increase their interest in playing a more active and constructive role for Afghanistan.
There are strong apprehensions by some stakes holder that negotiating with the Afghan Taliban would reverse the so called progress achieved in Afghanistan since 2001, whether in the field of human rights, women’s equality, health, education, or democracy. However, it is widely agreed that there is no military solution to the Afghan conflict. The US government has long sought quick fixes such as more troops or exerting more diplomatic pressure on Pakistan, to manage the problem. These measures may weaken the Afghan Taliban in the short term, but it would not lead to a long-term peace. Its a known fact that neither the government nor the Afghan Taliban are strong enough to tip the power balance completely in respective favor. There is a ray of hope that more regional powers would engage in Afghanistan for achieving regional and global peace by gearing up the efforts for facilitating the desired peace talks between the warring parties in Afghanistan.
