Rafiullah Khan
The Afghan Taliban have increased their offensives, despite the ongoing positive vibes from the US and Afghan governments. The recent episode of Ghazni battle was a major jolt to Afghan government and the US troops in Afghanistan. The US administration is somehow, still working on the hypothesis that military and political arms against the Afghan Taliban could be adopted in parallel, without realizing that practically, it has proven wrong. Besides, the main obstacle to peace is not the Taliban’s unwillingness to share power, but the presence of foreign troops in the country, same is the strong stance of the Afghan Taliban. Currently, the solo approach by the US government, apparently meant for resolving the Afghanistan’s situation, is adding fuel to the deteriorating peace in Afghanistan
On the other hand the increased attacks in Kabul by the Islamic State (ISIS) in Afghanistan is suggesting that the group has acquired strong footing in the country. Experts are of the opinion that without some form of political intervention, the conflict between the Afghan government and the Taliban will most likely continue as a stalemate. In the long term, this will still be an untenable situation, as it will hamper reconstruction efforts and cause further suffering for Afghanis. It will also likely witness the ISIS and other extremist groups increasing their local footprints at grass root level. The Afghan Taliban group’s large middle category consists of those who want Afghanistan to be an Islamic State but are willing to negotiate on the best means to establish it, including gradual and non-violent means , which might eventually include acceptance of a form of political pluralism. This category also include those who are not particularly religious, but who fight due to common grievances such as revenge, unemployment, political oppression, and tribal affiliations.
Experts opine that any attempt to field Taliban moderates against the hardliners would not capture the large middle category, and render any peace negotiations unrepresentative and ineffective. It might ultimately push more people towards the hard-line camp. It is widely agreed that there is no military solution to the Afghan conflict, the US has long sought quick fixes, such as more troops or exerting more diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to manage the conflict. These measures won’t lead to long-term peace.
There is a dire need that more regional powers should engage in Afghanistan. Despite the inherent difficulties, talking directly with the Taliban by the US government instead of the Afghan puppet government, would be the most viable long-term solution for achieving peace in Afghanistan. The recent approaches of the US government to hold back Afghan Taliban seems to be futile effort, as the Taliban have increased their intensity of attacks. The recent wave of Taliban’s offensive is a key reminder to US and Afghan government that they are still alive and kicking. With this outcome of Afghan Taliban offensive after their recent past meeting with the US officials in Qatar, it seems that the Afghan nation will have to wait a long for any ray of peace in Afghanistan. Experts believe that the prospect of peace negotiations thus needs to be brought up on a regular basis. These efforts will likely intensify in the years ahead, particularly as large regional powers such as China and Russia are expected to increase their interests in playing a more active role in Afghanistan for the broader peace and prosperity in the region and beyond.
