Muhammad Saeed
Nuclear weapons were never tested before dropping of two nuclear bombs on two cities of Japan in August 1945. In modern day conflicts, contrarily unmanned aerial vehicles, popularly know as drones and predators have an intense history of plentiful usage in different regions starting from Tribal Areas of Pakistan to Yemen, Sudan and some other countries of Africa. As South Asia has remained a focal point of the US foreign policy, particularly since Afghan War in the 1980s, therefore despite several setbacks the US has continued to keep its foothold through strategic engagements in the region, most recently new engagement is at the rumble with India. Previously the superpower has fought two protracted wars in this region; one for almost twelve years through proxies and the another for nearly fourteen years with a fusion approach of direct and proxy; in both wars, Afghanistan was battle ground while Pakistan remained a key ally as well as extended war theatre. Both times the US treated its regional cohorts relatively in the same manner; leaving them in great unrest in all respects. US drone strikes continued in Afghanistan and Somalia till recent months. Drone assault in these countries were carried out primarily to deal with threats to the US forces on the ground, but this was not the option in case of drone attacks in Tribal territory of Pakistan since no foreign boots were on Pakistan’s soil. There are no attacks reported in Pakistan in recent months but at least thirteen strikes were carried out during 2015 by CIA using Predator or Reaper drones. However after the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) government came to power in 2013, the US has carried out forty six drone strikes in Pakistan. According to unconfirmed figures in these strikes, approximately 286 militants have been killed, including Hakeemullah Mehsud, the former Chief of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), in addition to some innocent civilians. Since the CIA’s mechanized assassination campaign began in earnest in 2002, the skies over Pakistan’s tribal zones known as the FATA, used as sanctuary by now deactivated Taliban and Al Qaeda, have been filled with the buzzing sound of CIA Predator and more advanced Reaper drones primarily to hunt terrorists, militants and extremists. The drones have purportedly killed approximately 2,489 militants but also splayed 1056 innocent by-standing civilians including children and women in 421 strikes launched since the campaign began according to different estimates including the Long War Journal. Figures for killed children alone is reported to be more than 207 while total injured are estimated to be more than 1838 including women. The drones have been merciless and precise killers that have apparently done a tremendous job of using unprecedented discrimination based on advanced technology to hunt those who terrorized Pakistanis and Afghans. Due to these drones, the Taliban were though pinned downed within a limited space but regrettable drones were unable to restrict them to particular areas while failing in limiting their reach to public spaces. They were though not able to communicate using cell phones for fear that a drone will hone in on their communications and kill them, but they were on the other hand provided opportunity to rush into the urban areas to play havoc against innocent Pakistanis; including 124 school children of Army Public School in the heart of Peshawar city. These drone attacks also enabled terrorists to openly train their human bombs in their camps inside Afghanistan. The all seeing, ever present drones were expected to track down the terrorists who were at war with Pakistan and Afghanistan as well as the West and killing them in their hundreds, but this strategy created more challenges for Pakistan till Pakistan’s security structure initiated concrete steps in shape of Zarb-e-Azb in 2014 leading to elimination of all types of terror groups. In earnest drones had made it harder for Pakistan while easing Taliban to plan new outrages inside Pakistan’s nerve centers that should be adversaries targets too. Learning from the drone usage tactics of the American led west, India under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, also has shown intention and threatened time and again to carryout similar strikes targeting individuals and places inside Pakistani territory. Newly appointed National Security Advisor Ajit Doval is known for his support for such made ventures on the pretext of striking at so called anti-India elements inside Pakistani territory. Even the Indian PM has been advocating the use of force across the border, at least once. In an article, written in 2012 by Ajit Doval, the NSA spoke about the importance of covet action. According to Doval, a low cost sustainable offensive with high deniability aimed to bleed Pakistan to a level of submission. Last year, a news report published in the Hindustan Times had indicated that Indian Armed Forces may have carried out covet operation in the Pakistani territory. Few years back, a senior Israeli security official in India was asked what was needed to mimic his country’s success in targeted operations. He replied, “It all boils down to political will. If you send soldiers to hunt down one man, they must know that they will be supported by their government irrespective if elections happen, Prime Ministers change. If that isn’t there, then it can never happen.” Taking the cue from the US and its protégé Israel, India has accelerated plans to buy drones from Israel that can be adequately armed with sophisticated weapons acquired from the US, allowing the Indian military to carry out strikes primarily against Pakistan on the pretext of hiding anti-India elements and consequently triggering a full scale conflict leading to possible nuclear use by both forces. This dangerous initiative has been coincided after long-time rival Pakistan first reported using a home-made drone against terrorists when it attacked militants on its own soil. This initiative of Pakistan has been misinterpreted by raising the concern that it has the prospect of a new front in the nuclear-armed neighbours’ standoff over Kashmir. Indian initiative to acquire Israeli Herons was conceived long before the use of drones by Pakistan but capitalizing on the issue, Indian military requisitioned sanction from the radical government of Mr. Modi and his NSA asking for speedy delivery as Pakistan and China develop their own drone warfare capabilities. India has already deployed Israeli unmanned aerial vehicles along the Kashmir border for surveillance, as well as on the disputed border with China. Pakistan army had shot down one such Indian spy drone in Kashmir not in the distance past. Indian government has deliberately approved the air force’s request to acquire ten fully equipped Heron TP drones from Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) that can be fitted with sophisticated weapons acquired from the US to engage targets on opponent’s ground. The Indian Defence Ministry has though declined to comment but independent sources have confirmed the Indian venture of raising a fleet of drones for using them against Kashmiris and inside Pakistani territory. The plan to buy Herons in a deal estimated at $1000 million is aimed to open the option of covert cross-border strikes, primarily initiated by India. Most recently the two armies have been exchanging fire across the Kashmir border at times of tension. India has chosen a dangerous path by intending to initiate sneak attacks by using Israeli drones equipped with the US weapons. This option of attacks on the pretext of hunting terrorist hideouts in mountainous terrain of Pakistan will invite a highly risky condition involving nuclear war in South East Asia. Indian intentions of the kind appears to be part of the stratagem that aims at shattering peace and progress expected from the economic policies of China and Pakistan. American led west must take the cognizance of the India intention of covert war through drones acquired fro Israel.
