Muhammad Waqar Anwar
Introduction
Climate change has become one of the most important environmental issue in the 21st Century. It can be said to have even trumped terrorism as a global threat to peace and security. Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries vis-à-vis climate change and has been rated as the 7th most risk prone countries of the world. For all practical purposes, Pakistan is a water stressed country and the agricultural sector depends heavily on this resource. This puts a strain on the food production capability of Pakistan, and increasing temperatures will further exacerbate the existing situation. The impacts of climate change include rise in the global sea levels, melting of glacial ice and increase in precipitation levels etc.
Impact on National Security
In addition to the traditional security threats, the non – traditional security threats also pose a significant challenge to the national security of Pakistan. Climate change will impact the areas of food security, water security, energy security and human security
The increased flow in the rivers due to glacial melting will subsequently be followed by decrease in flow, resulting in reduced water for agricultural purposes and consequently reduced agricultural production. Moreover, the coastal areas of Sindh and Baluchistan will be at great risk of inundation due to rising sea levels leading to increased risks of flooding. The resource utilization inequality will increase and there can be phenomenal shifts in migration patterns, and the risk of conflicts can surge.
Climate change is considered as a ‘low-politics’ issue however, recently it has turned into a high politics issue as well according to some scholars. The most prominent examples come from the small island states like Maldives and Sri Lanka which are at the risk of total annihilation of the surface of the earth, due to the rising sea levels. In this case climate change becomes a national security threat in the realist paradigm. Climate change works as a catalyst for turbo charging the hurricanes and other natural events by increasing their intensity. Therefore, it acts as a threat multiplier.
Repercussions of Climate Change for Pakistan
Pakistan has already ratified the Paris Agreement and therefore is responsible for taking the necessary steps to tackle the issues. Another report by Asian Development Bank (ADB) in 2017, argues that the development gains will be at risk of being reversed and decrease in rainfall in Pakistan will result in adverse impacts. The food production will be negatively affected, and there is a serious health risk with the increase in number of malnourished children. This can severely impact the existing child health crisis, thus increasing the number of children with stunted growth.
According to the Environmental Protection Act of 1997, every project prior to be launched has to undergo an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). The passing of the Climate Change Act is an important step in the right direction. The act has created three bodies which will coordinate with each other vis-à-vis recommendations, policy formulation and implementation. In order to put the act in action the traditional red tape and bureaucratic hurdles have to be set aside, due the emergency nature of the issue at hand.
Climate Change and Food Security
According to the World Food Program 60% of the population of Pakistan is food insecure and 44% of children under the age of 5 suffer from stunted growth. Although Pakistan has made progress in becoming a food surplus country, and a major wheat producer, however, unfortunately a huge number of people are food insecure due to lack of access to diverse food resources, particularly women. By 2025 Pakistan will face depletion of water resources. In order to cope with this Pakistan will have to work on water conservation strategies and to focus on rain water harvesting, increasing its water storage volume, improving water utilization through efficient means and so on.
A research study conducted by the Global Change Impact Studies Center (GCISC) concluded that the increasing temperature will have a negative impact on the growth patterns of the Kharif crop. However, there will be an increased production in the mountainous regions. But the fact of the matter is that there is no wheat production in the mountainous regions of Pakistan, and all of the production zones are situated in arid and semi-areas. Therefore, this vital source of food is vulnerable to the impacts of temperature elevation and climate change presents a looming impact on all the aspects of human security, and this is likely to intensify in the coming years.
Way Forward
There needs to be proper strategizing at the societal, urban, and provincial levels; More and more awareness campaigns have to be launched and proper planning should be done before launch of mega infrastructure projects. Forest cover needs to be increased on emergency basis, as the current forests very less than the required quantity and other environmental issues like pollution and environmental degradation have to be tackled. The industrial areas should be moved out of the city and the vehicles emitting black smoke should be banned; Strict environmental standards should be applied for the sale of automobiles, like those in the advanced developing countries. Furthermore, the Coal fired power plants which are a part of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor should also be scrutinized and the plants should be operated only after stringent environmental security checks.
Conclusion
There have been certain efforts in like the formation of Climate Change Ministry and passing of an act. However, much more is needed as the formulation and passage of laws is not enough unless followed by on ground steps. The role of the civil society is very important in this regard. Although Pakistan is ranked 135th in terms of its emissions profile, however keeping in view the looming global threat there is an urgent need to take stern action. According to the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted by Pakistan it will reduce emissions only after reaching peak levels, and the emission reduction will depend subsequently on the provision of technical expertise and resources and capacity building. However, the time is not to look for technology transfer but technology generation, and more action as per the financial situation. The costs of global warming are very high, and political will combined with robust action can avert the looming disaster.
The author is a Research Associate at the Center for Global & Strategic Studies (CGSS), a think tank based in Islamabad with mission to help improve policy and decision-making through analysis and research. He is a Masters Degree holder in International Relations.
