In the meeting in the UAE, Taliban representatives insisted that the US must withdraw its forces from Afghanistan for any meaningful dialogue. It is in this backdrop that US President Donald Trump has ordered to plan withdrawal of 7000 troops from Afghanistan i.e. about half of total deployment, which appears to be a trust-building measure. Earlier, Washington had always insisted that any peace settlement must be agreed between the Afghan government and the Taliban, but the Taliban had refused to hold talks with Afghan government and took the position that it would hold direct talks with the US. Zalmay Khalilzad had previously held at least two rounds of talks with Taliban officials in recent months, and wished to broker an agreement before presidential polls. But efforts are being made by some government functionaries in Afghanistan to throw spanner in the works.
Afghanistan’s National Security Advisor Hamdullah Mohib in a tweet stated: “As a sovereign country, no other country or individual has the right or the authority to discuss new governance formulae or structure for Afghanistan, including political dispensation, which violate the Afghan Constitution.” When Afghan government has been surviving with the support of US and NATO forces, how it could describe Afghanistan as sovereign country. Such elements do not understand that if American and NATO allies – the best war machine in the world – failed to subdue or decimate them, how Afghan forces could do it. They must realize that the only path to peace in Afghanistan is reconciliation and giving due share to the Taliban that represent more than 50 per cent of the population. But there is more to that.
First of all constitution has to be amended before the next presidential elections. Secondly, there is need to have a balanced Afghan National Army which is composed of 45 per cent Tajiks, 20 per cent Hazaras and 10 per cent Uzbeks, but only 25 per cent Pashtuns. The Taliban leadership would not accept such ethno-tribal army setup. Of course, Afghan forces are no match with the Taliban fighters who according to the BBC latest report have either control or influence in 70 per cent of Afghanistan. In Urzgan province, the government pays to the Taliban for the transit facility in the areas held by them. After withdrawal of US forces, Afghan government would neither have the training facilities nor guidance nor support, and in this scenario Afghan government would lose control over the remaining territory held by it.
The reality is that the Taliban control large swathes of land in Afghanistan, and according Pajhwok News the Taliban are collecting land rents from the growers in some areas including Batikot district of eastern Nangarhar province. It means that Afghan Government has not been able to establish the writ of the state. Afghanistan is already in the throes of a multidimensional civil war, the rift between the partners of Unity Government and intensified Taliban attacks. Afghan government has to play its role by convincing its allies such as Abdullah Abdullah and others that they must accept new realities, otherwise the country will be adrift to more uncertainties, chaos and anarchy. And they stand to lose more if they do not listen to the US advice, as they will be deprived of the US funding and support.
The problem is that ‘basics’ of the US policy were wrong, as right from the beginning efforts were made to ensure that minority – members of former Northern Alliance – rules the majority Pashtuns, who were neglected at the time of raising the Afghan army and building other state institutions. The US has to understand that without giving the majority Pashtuns the due share in power, there would be no peace in the foreseeable future. In February 2018, President Ashraf had announced a policy plan to retire hundreds of Tajik army officers including colonel and generals, what he said, to put fresh blood in the army. But it was also an effort to woo Pashtuns. The other day, the US decided to pull its troops out of Syria, as Trump claims victory over ISIS. And he seems to have made up his mind to withdraw from Afghanistan also.
